Posted on 09/28/2024 9:31:13 PM PDT by lasereye
In a tightening race for the White House, Vice President Kamala Harris' odds of winning the presidency have slightly decreased, according to the latest forecast from renowned pollster Nate Silver.
The updated projections, released Saturday morning, show Harris' Electoral College chances dipping from 58.1 percent to 57.3 percent over the past 24 hours, while former President Donald Trump's prospects improved from 41.7 percent to 42.5 percent.
This shift comes as new polls show Trump gaining ground in crucial swing states. According to the latest New York Times/Siena College polls, conducted from September 21 to 26 and considered the most accurate by FiveThirtyEight, Harris has 48 percent of voter support in Michigan, with Trump slightly behind at 47 percent. In Wisconsin, Harris leads Trump by just 2 points (49 to 47 percent).
Both results fall well within the polls' margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The surveys included 688 likely voters in Michigan and 680 in Wisconsin.
Newsweek contacted Harris and Trump's campaign via email on Saturday for comment.
Despite this tightening, Silver's analysis still gives Harris a slight edge over Trump. The FiveThirtyEight polling average shows Harris leading nationally by about 3 points (48.6 to 45.7 percent), with her advantage extending to most swing states, including the crucial battleground of Pennsylvania, where she leads by 1.3 points (48.2 to 46.9 percent).
Silver's model, known as the Silver Bulletin, provides a comprehensive analysis of the 2024 presidential election landscape. The forecast, which builds upon the methodology of the former FiveThirtyEight election model, integrates polling data, economic indicators, and historical trends to estimate each candidate's likelihood of victory.
As of Friday, September 27, Silver noted that Harris' national lead had grown since his previous update.
(Excerpt) Read more at newsweek.com ...
Got my DNA test back today. It's confirmed. I'm 100%
behind Trump.
It’s disgusting that this braindead whore is even a candidate.
Now the Republicans outnumber Democrats, that should mean the polls are way off.
I’ll stick to polls that were accurate consistently. Trafalgar, Emerson’s etc
Times sienna has shown to me they are, while not the worst, nowhere near the best.
Trumps on the ballot and they have a poor track record when he is
Presidential races are a totally different animal. Only Nate would claim mid terms and residential races are similar
Her only real chance of winning is by deception, cheat and fraud.
She is completely out of sync with priorities of the USA.
While storm wiping out towns on east coast she runs a pathetic commercial where she acts like the school girl didn’t get asked to the dance exactly how she wanted.
Her commercial shows she is stuck on stupid. She turned down her chance at a debate. Performs mediocre in a debate she had manipulated in multiple ways to help her. Now she whines for another?
Didn’t Simver have Trump with about a 60% chance of winning about a week or so ago? This stuff moves all over the place for no reason that makes sense, as nothing big changed I. The last two weeks.
She is a KNOWN entity now.
I dont see how she can go any higher.
I do see her losing more voters as time goes by.
But in my opinion, she has peaked.
What a crock. She had ZERO chance of beating a turnip unless they cheat hard enough. And they will.
Unless I’m mistaken DJT outperformed the polls by at least a couple of points in both 2016 and 2020. That stands to reason...most polls are done to assist Rat Party Headquarters so they skew the internal numbers to give the Rat a false advantage.
Some predictions for the 2016 results were:
Hillary - 71.4%; Trump - 28.6% (Nate Silver)
Hillary - 98%; Trump - 1.7% (HuffPo)
Hillary - 322 EVs; Trump - 216 EVs. (Crystal Ball)
Hillary - 274 EVs; Trump - 190 EVs (AP)
I still get warm fuzzies looking at the pics I saved of Hillary supporters the night of 11/8, and morning of 11/9.
Nate Silver applies probabity like they did in the Naked Gun where there was a 50-50 chance but only a 10% chance of that.
Yes, indeed. And her media campaign, which unfortunately is the only messaging a significant numbers of voters are seeing, is the following:
She worked for what she has, from the ground up. Trump got everything handed to him. She's "one of us". She has a plan to lower prices for hard working families, while Trump wants to dramatically raise taxes for the middle class and only works for billionaires. She has a long record of accomplishment, integrity, etc. and has a positive vision for America.
Does that make you sick? The unfortunate reality is that this message is being ground into a significant portion of the populace - with no competing message.
ubiquitous mail-in ballots (even Obama originally opposed them).
Wonder how many ballots with R on them end up in dumpsters behind the post office again?.
Nate Silver is all over the place. Constantly “covering his bases” so if he’s wrong he can point to one daily prediction he made and say, “See, I predicted him to win”!
It's my firm belief that there are many in this country who won't openly declare support for DJT out of fear of ridicule (or worse).
I'm a case in point. I live in an area (a region,actually) where Harris yard signs outnumber Trump signs by at least ten to one. That's why I don't have a Trump sticker on my car...fear of damage to the car or to me!
“That’s why I don’t have a Trump sticker on my car...fear of damage to the car or to me!”
Same here. Even though we’re in relatively conservative east TN, it only takes one nutball to key your car.
“Where are Ga’s migrant shelters?”
“migrant” - I see they succeeded in making you use their language.
They are not “illegals” any more, but the much more positive, compassion evoking “migrant”, even in freeper land.
Those who control the language....
Actually, “migrants” is easier to type out.....that’s the reason its used.
That is a really really stupid reason!
Why don’t you use “cat” then, it’s even easier to type. .
East Tennessee??? That would be like heaven to me! It would be like North Korea vs South Korea!
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