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Posted on 09/28/2024 9:31:13 PM PDT by lasereye
In a tightening race for the White House, Vice President Kamala Harris' odds of winning the presidency have slightly decreased, according to the latest forecast from renowned pollster Nate Silver.
The updated projections, released Saturday morning, show Harris' Electoral College chances dipping from 58.1 percent to 57.3 percent over the past 24 hours, while former President Donald Trump's prospects improved from 41.7 percent to 42.5 percent.
This shift comes as new polls show Trump gaining ground in crucial swing states. According to the latest New York Times/Siena College polls, conducted from September 21 to 26 and considered the most accurate by FiveThirtyEight, Harris has 48 percent of voter support in Michigan, with Trump slightly behind at 47 percent. In Wisconsin, Harris leads Trump by just 2 points (49 to 47 percent).
Both results fall well within the polls' margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The surveys included 688 likely voters in Michigan and 680 in Wisconsin.
Newsweek contacted Harris and Trump's campaign via email on Saturday for comment.
Despite this tightening, Silver's analysis still gives Harris a slight edge over Trump. The FiveThirtyEight polling average shows Harris leading nationally by about 3 points (48.6 to 45.7 percent), with her advantage extending to most swing states, including the crucial battleground of Pennsylvania, where she leads by 1.3 points (48.2 to 46.9 percent).
Silver's model, known as the Silver Bulletin, provides a comprehensive analysis of the 2024 presidential election landscape. The forecast, which builds upon the methodology of the former FiveThirtyEight election model, integrates polling data, economic indicators, and historical trends to estimate each candidate's likelihood of victory.
As of Friday, September 27, Silver noted that Harris' national lead had grown since his previous update.
(Excerpt) Read more at newsweek.com ...
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Two weeks before election day 2020 their website headline was:
The New York Times / Siena College National Poll: Biden Leads Trump 50-41%
That was double his actual margin at the national level.
On November 1, 2020, Siena had these numbers in the battleground states:
All wayyy off from the actual results, even if we assume no vote fraud. Let me make clear I don't assume that but - assuming no vote fraud would put the Siena polls in the best possible light. Trump carried Florida and they had Biden winning it. Biden won those other states very narrowly. Siena had him winning them in a breeze.
Does that make any sense? Maybe his "economic indicators and historical trends" have shifted a little in Trump's favor since his last forecast. This must be some super sophisticated thing he does.
All that Tiffany necklace glitter at the border wall isn’t gold.
What a pity.
/s
The 2024 Mail-in Ballot Steal Scorecard
omega4america.substack.com ^ | 9/23/24 | Jay Valentine
Posted on 9/23/2024, 1:36:13 PM by chiller
The next President of the United States may well be chosen by mail-in ballots from “full time residents of” Walmarts, gas stations, abandoned buildings, UPS locations, strip malls and churches with no bedrooms.
It’s time to challenge bogus ballots, from ridiculous or ineligible addresses BEFORE the votes are counted - not litigate, and lose afterward - again.
Common Sense Elections, a group of attorneys, investigators, writers, entrepreneurs, former elected officials, high tech players - built a national platform to publish, on a day by day basis, the ineligible and absurd mail-in ballots - many from Leftist NGOs - interfering with the 2024 election.
Their web site is: StopBogusBallots.com
Citizens have no idea of the scale at which mail-in ballots are being sent to a college dorm for a person who has been voting from there for 15 years. Nor do citizens know thousands of ballots arrive from locations like a vacant lot or empty building - and they certainly do not know such behavior is perfectly legal in some states.
Note well: Congress allocated $90 million tax dollars to the US Postal Service to compensate them for services rendered to voters living abeoad.
Citizens living overseas, including members of the armed forces, are allowed by law to vote absentee in elections. In Montana, a functioning absentee system allows them to vote
starting 45 days until Election Day.
Democrat voter fraud is in high gear.......globally.
Backstory: Pres Reagan signed into law the 1986 Uniformed
and Overseas Citizens Absentee Voting Act (UOCAVA):
<><>to protect a time-honored tradition of overseas voting
<><>to enhance US citizens abroad and U.S. military members’ right to vote
<><>yet, federal law doesn’t provide clear, commonsense rules
<><>for how overseas voters register to vote
<><>or how their votes are compiled and counted.
<><>ergo, states can make their own laws — even bad ones.
But this past August, we learned that Democrats have gone global, committing $300,000 to register and influence 9 million overseas voters — even though the federal government says only 2.4 million legal voters live in other countries. That’s 6.4 million votes that Democrats want to find...that don’t exist. The group financing the efforts——Democrats Abroad—— told CBS News that the ballots are “likely to favor Kamala Harris.”
Contact the RNC
310 1st St SE
Washington, DC 20003
(202) 863-8500
Mark Levin tonight gave an opening statement on his show “Life, Liberty and Levin” that just utterly obliterates the Biden/Kamala regime.
I could only find 60 seconds of it, but if you can find the whole thing, please pass it around especially to anyone you know who is undecided or says they are not going to vote. It is vitally important we get as many people as we possibly can out there to vote for Trump or we are finished as a country
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=86e3_IjAJDY&ab_channel=FoxNews
How your tax dollars land in politicians’ campaign pockets.
Reference: FEC data gathered by truthteller @OKeefeMedia linked one Democrat donor’s name to a conspicuous “830 donations” to “ActBlue.” The Democrat monitors her bank statements, so she knew what she had actually donated, and was outraged, seeing her name falsified by ActBlue on federal documents.
How ActBlue pulls off massive fraudulent Democrat donations:
<><>they collude w/ politicians to setup money laundries
<><>Biden Lends Billions in “Climate Funds” Before Election
<><>Biden DHS gives Millions of tax dollars to “Sanctuary Cities,”
<><>Haiti gets billions in USAID
<><>Biden hands billions of tax dollars to Zelensky
<><>Biden-Harris give well over $1 billion in federal benefits to Haitian migrants
<><>then a percentage of the “do-good” federal money is deposited offshore
<><>crooked legerdemain manipulates the federal money into the ActBlue data base,
<><>they then falsify federal documents,
<><>Actblue lists the money as having been “donated” by eligible donors,
<><>ActBlue does this without the knowledge or consent of the listed donors.
Where are Ga’s migrant shelters?
That’s where a lot of voter fraud will take place.
Migrants are used in a prime Democrat election fraud.
How Democrat fraudsters plan to steal 2024 for Kamala:
Battleground America ^ | 7/10/24 | Tara Servatius
FR Posted on 7/11/2024, 8:06:56 AM by Babsig
Source —— Talk radio 989 WORD Greenville SC:
<><>they register illegals to vote at proliferating migrant centers,
<><>they get ballots mailed there (to “harvest” them later)
<><>most illegals dont even know they were registered to vote, and have already moved away.
<><>Dem fraudsters then use the mfg ballots to boost Harris into the WH.
The opportunities for voter fraud are endless.
<><>early voting (before debates are held),
<><>ubiquitous mail-in ballots (even Obama originally opposed them),
<><>pervasive ballot harvesting
<><>reams of envelopes dumped anonymously in the middle of the night,
<><>non-citizens automatically registered to vote
<><>illegals given vote-enabling driver’s licenses,
<><>no ID necessary in various states,
<><>no real signature verification in various states,
<><>people voting from non-existent addresses,
<><>people voting in the wrong state,
<><>dead people voting
<><>and so on and so forth, ad infinitum, ad nauseum.
Holy cow it IS the whole thing, great!
Let’s bring reality into the discussion.
Trump is beating his opponent by about 50%.
The fact 538 considers the NYT/sienna polls the most accurate tells you all you need to know about 538. It’s not even close the the most accurate
I thought he had Trump’s chances of winning were well over 55%?
I think the polls were skewed in 2020 ahead of the fraud.
No way anyone will ever convince me that Biden won that election.
I went to bed with Trump leading in every swing state.
some with 90% counted.
Correct, but the problem is we are not having an election. If we are lucky, we are having a contest between two intelligence operations to see who can more effectively rig the election. I am unclear there is even any relevance to how the candidates stand with us in terms of popularity.
And if we are unlucky there are not two intel operations competing, there is only the one trying to take over and destroy the US, and Trump is hoping if his numbers are big enough it will not be possible to rig.
Until everyone here sees the domestic surveillance of the foreign intel op taking over, we are in a really bad spot.
What’s your reasoning in saying we’re lucky if it’s a contest between two intelligence operations trying to rig the election?
And unlucky if it’s only one?
As an American living abroad, I have constantly been contacting the Trump campaign about this issue. They give it lip service and say they will pass it up the chain. They never do anything about it. I had one simple suggestion for them that would get them even Dem votes from overseas. Eliminate the FBAR ( reporting of overseas bank accounts)or at least increase the reporting amount. It is still set at $10,000 ( established in 1970). In todays dollars that would be about $80,000.This was established to fight money laundering from drug traffickers living in the US that had overseas accounts. To a person living overseas, their account is not an overseas account but a local one. The paperwork for filing is a pain in the ass. Many living abroad don't even know they have to file it every year. Failure to file a form can result in a $30k fine (or half the account ) plus 3 years in prison. It isn't filed with the IRS, but the Financial Crimes Unit, so you are already considered a criminal and you have to prove every year that you are not. So, just eliminating this would garner him many overseas votes.
Siena was wildly inaccurate in the last couple of President races. However they were one of the most accurate in the 2022 midterms, according to Silver. That seems to be what he’s going on.
How could they have been so far off and then suddenly been so accurate? One possibility is that they lied in the President races, but played it straight in 2022. Another possibility is that Trump polling will always be off, because of the unique factors related to him.
BTTT
VAand MN are outliers, but if President Trump continues his momentuum, they could fall.
If Levin’s Fox show is repeated, it would be here (audio only) https://www.talkstreamlive.com/program/fox_news_channel
BINGO!
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