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Kamala Harris' Chances of Beating Donald Trump Drop—Nate Silver Forecast
Newsweek ^ | Sep 28, 2024 | Adeola Adeosun

Posted on 09/28/2024 9:31:13 PM PDT by lasereye

In a tightening race for the White House, Vice President Kamala Harris' odds of winning the presidency have slightly decreased, according to the latest forecast from renowned pollster Nate Silver.

The updated projections, released Saturday morning, show Harris' Electoral College chances dipping from 58.1 percent to 57.3 percent over the past 24 hours, while former President Donald Trump's prospects improved from 41.7 percent to 42.5 percent.

This shift comes as new polls show Trump gaining ground in crucial swing states. According to the latest New York Times/Siena College polls, conducted from September 21 to 26 and considered the most accurate by FiveThirtyEight, Harris has 48 percent of voter support in Michigan, with Trump slightly behind at 47 percent. In Wisconsin, Harris leads Trump by just 2 points (49 to 47 percent).

Both results fall well within the polls' margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The surveys included 688 likely voters in Michigan and 680 in Wisconsin.

Newsweek contacted Harris and Trump's campaign via email on Saturday for comment.

Despite this tightening, Silver's analysis still gives Harris a slight edge over Trump. The FiveThirtyEight polling average shows Harris leading nationally by about 3 points (48.6 to 45.7 percent), with her advantage extending to most swing states, including the crucial battleground of Pennsylvania, where she leads by 1.3 points (48.2 to 46.9 percent).

Silver's model, known as the Silver Bulletin, provides a comprehensive analysis of the 2024 presidential election landscape. The forecast, which builds upon the methodology of the former FiveThirtyEight election model, integrates polling data, economic indicators, and historical trends to estimate each candidate's likelihood of victory.

As of Friday, September 27, Silver noted that Harris' national lead had grown since his previous update.

(Excerpt) Read more at newsweek.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: harris; natesilver; trump

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To: lasereye
The Daily Mail's current model indicates Trump has a
55/45% margin of victory over Harris, as of 09/26/24.

LINK

Got my DNA test back today. It's confirmed. I'm 100%
behind Trump.

21 posted on 09/28/2024 11:13:48 PM PDT by DoughtyOne (I pledge allegiance to the flag of the USofA & to the Constitutional REPUBLIC for which it stands. )
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To: lasereye

It’s disgusting that this braindead whore is even a candidate.


22 posted on 09/28/2024 11:16:17 PM PDT by bicyclerepair (Let's Go Brandon!)
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To: lasereye

Now the Republicans outnumber Democrats, that should mean the polls are way off.


23 posted on 09/28/2024 11:44:01 PM PDT by roving (Deplorable Erectionists Listless Vessel )
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To: lasereye

I’ll stick to polls that were accurate consistently. Trafalgar, Emerson’s etc

Times sienna has shown to me they are, while not the worst, nowhere near the best.

Trumps on the ballot and they have a poor track record when he is

Presidential races are a totally different animal. Only Nate would claim mid terms and residential races are similar


24 posted on 09/29/2024 12:11:14 AM PDT by HamiltonJay ( )
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To: lasereye

Her only real chance of winning is by deception, cheat and fraud.

She is completely out of sync with priorities of the USA.

While storm wiping out towns on east coast she runs a pathetic commercial where she acts like the school girl didn’t get asked to the dance exactly how she wanted.

Her commercial shows she is stuck on stupid. She turned down her chance at a debate. Performs mediocre in a debate she had manipulated in multiple ways to help her. Now she whines for another?


25 posted on 09/29/2024 12:50:32 AM PDT by b4me (Pray, and let God change you. He knows better than you or anyone else, who He made you to be.)
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To: lasereye

Didn’t Simver have Trump with about a 60% chance of winning about a week or so ago? This stuff moves all over the place for no reason that makes sense, as nothing big changed I. The last two weeks.


26 posted on 09/29/2024 1:21:03 AM PDT by Ancesthntr ("The right to buy weapons is the right to be free." - The Weapons Shops of Isher)
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To: lightman

She is a KNOWN entity now.

I dont see how she can go any higher.

I do see her losing more voters as time goes by.

But in my opinion, she has peaked.


27 posted on 09/29/2024 2:50:50 AM PDT by dp0622 (Tried a coup, a fake tax story, tramp slander, Russia nonsense, impeachment and a virus. They lost.)
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To: lasereye

What a crock. She had ZERO chance of beating a turnip unless they cheat hard enough. And they will.


28 posted on 09/29/2024 3:28:45 AM PDT by GrumpyOldGuy
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To: lasereye

Unless I’m mistaken DJT outperformed the polls by at least a couple of points in both 2016 and 2020. That stands to reason...most polls are done to assist Rat Party Headquarters so they skew the internal numbers to give the Rat a false advantage.


29 posted on 09/29/2024 3:52:15 AM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Import The Third World,Become The Third World)
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To: Gay State Conservative

Some predictions for the 2016 results were:

Hillary - 71.4%; Trump - 28.6% (Nate Silver)
Hillary - 98%; Trump - 1.7% (HuffPo)
Hillary - 322 EVs; Trump - 216 EVs. (Crystal Ball)
Hillary - 274 EVs; Trump - 190 EVs (AP)

I still get warm fuzzies looking at the pics I saved of Hillary supporters the night of 11/8, and morning of 11/9.


30 posted on 09/29/2024 4:10:43 AM PDT by MayflowerMadam (I'm voting for the convicted felon with the pierced ear. )
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To: lasereye

Nate Silver applies probabity like they did in the Naked Gun where there was a 50-50 chance but only a 10% chance of that.


31 posted on 09/29/2024 4:40:39 AM PDT by AndyTheBear (Certified smarter than average for my species)
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To: b4me
Her only real chance of winning is by deception

Yes, indeed. And her media campaign, which unfortunately is the only messaging a significant numbers of voters are seeing, is the following:

She worked for what she has, from the ground up. Trump got everything handed to him. She's "one of us". She has a plan to lower prices for hard working families, while Trump wants to dramatically raise taxes for the middle class and only works for billionaires. She has a long record of accomplishment, integrity, etc. and has a positive vision for America.

Does that make you sick? The unfortunate reality is that this message is being ground into a significant portion of the populace - with no competing message.

32 posted on 09/29/2024 4:42:44 AM PDT by Republican Wildcat
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To: Liz

ubiquitous mail-in ballots (even Obama originally opposed them).

Wonder how many ballots with R on them end up in dumpsters behind the post office again?.


33 posted on 09/29/2024 4:53:16 AM PDT by Vaduz
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To: lasereye

Nate Silver is all over the place. Constantly “covering his bases” so if he’s wrong he can point to one daily prediction he made and say, “See, I predicted him to win”!


34 posted on 09/29/2024 5:03:59 AM PDT by Baldwin77 ( NOVEMBER 5-CHRISTIAN VISIBILITY DAY)
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To: MayflowerMadam
Yes,I'm more focused on polls for individual states...particularly "tossup" states. It's my understanding that DJT outperformed the polls (in 2016 *and* 2020) in those states by noteworthy margins...2 points or more.

It's my firm belief that there are many in this country who won't openly declare support for DJT out of fear of ridicule (or worse).

I'm a case in point. I live in an area (a region,actually) where Harris yard signs outnumber Trump signs by at least ten to one. That's why I don't have a Trump sticker on my car...fear of damage to the car or to me!

35 posted on 09/29/2024 5:06:18 AM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Import The Third World,Become The Third World)
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To: Gay State Conservative

“That’s why I don’t have a Trump sticker on my car...fear of damage to the car or to me!”

Same here. Even though we’re in relatively conservative east TN, it only takes one nutball to key your car.


36 posted on 09/29/2024 5:13:26 AM PDT by MayflowerMadam (I'm voting for the convicted felon with the pierced ear. )
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To: Liz; lasereye

“Where are Ga’s migrant shelters?”

“migrant” - I see they succeeded in making you use their language.

They are not “illegals” any more, but the much more positive, compassion evoking “migrant”, even in freeper land.

Those who control the language....


37 posted on 09/29/2024 6:20:04 AM PDT by aquila48 (Do not let them make you "care" ! Guilting you is how they control you. )
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To: aquila48

Actually, “migrants” is easier to type out.....that’s the reason its used.


38 posted on 09/29/2024 6:27:02 AM PDT by Liz (Faith is believing what you cannot see; its reward is to see what you believe. St Augustine)
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To: Liz

That is a really really stupid reason!

Why don’t you use “cat” then, it’s even easier to type. .


39 posted on 09/29/2024 6:32:56 AM PDT by aquila48 (Do not let them make you "care" ! Guilting you is how they control you. )
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To: MayflowerMadam

East Tennessee??? That would be like heaven to me! It would be like North Korea vs South Korea!


40 posted on 09/29/2024 6:40:14 AM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Import The Third World,Become The Third World)
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