Peculiar Paul Ryan.
Posted on 09/18/2024 8:01:06 PM PDT by thegagline
Vice President Kamala Harris edges former President Trump in a head-to-head matchup, as more voters see Harris as the candidate who will help the middle class, and Hispanics and independents swing in her direction.
The new Fox News national survey finds a 3 percentage-point shift among registered voters in the 2024 presidential contest since mid-August. Trump had a 1-point advantage last month, while Harris is ahead by 2 points today: 50%-48%. For reference, in July, Trump was ahead by 1 point over President Biden. Each of those differences falls within the margin of error.
This marks the first time Harris has hit 50% support, and the trial ballot result is identical among both registered and likely voters. That’s unsurprising given most Americans who are willing to spend time answering a political survey are also probably going to vote.
***
The biggest change since last month is that independents and Hispanics have swung Harris’ way. Hispanics favored Trump by 6 points in August, but they go for Harris by 12 points today. Independents went for Trump by 8 points last month, but now prefer Harris by 12. It is important to remember that estimates among small subgroups are more volatile and tend to swing more than others, and that applies here.***
Harris’ strongest backing comes from Black voters, urban voters, those under age 30, voters 65 and over, college graduates and women. She’s narrowly ahead in union households, a group that Biden won by low double-digits. Her numbers also still trail his 2020 pre-election numbers a bit among Blacks and young voters. ***
(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com ...
Many, many millions of people.
Trump is crisscrossing the country now holding huge rallies, which are much more effective than spending big bucks on ads.
Not in the least - that's a tiny tear drop of voters that are affected by that. Yes, getting the base motivate does matter - but it alone won't decide the election. Certainly conceding a large portion of the electorate is not a winning strategy given some states may be decided by a fraction of a percent of the vote.
The best thing for the Trump campaign is to insist that Kamala have as many unscripted interviews with the press even the friendly press. Even with a friendly press she comes across as not knowing the facts nor issues. A neutral press would destroy her.
I saw her today with a friendly press interview. It was horrible. She could not string together logical sequences of logic. It was all word salad of no sense and continuity. She can not think on her feet. I wonder what she really thinks?
If one looks at her past political statements not on the cuff but planned statements it is basically Marxism. I believe those statements. I believe she is a Marxist.
Right, total Bull$hit!
This has been over for a while.
Let’s get to the ballots already.
Well...finally, after numerous Harris ads, a couple of ads against Harris from the “Make America Great Again PAC” has aired.
Rubbish
No kiddin. Look at the polls he postsed. Yougov, Activote, .....etc. Liberal hack polls. This dude’s a troll.
I believe the youth vote could crush Harris...particularly young males.
I’m in Oregon and I’m not seeing much from either side.
Biden had a 16% margin in 2020(56% to 40%)
My prediction is Harris wins this state by a margin of 5% to 10%.
50% to 42% with +2% or -2% either way, if I had to place a wager.
fyi
Atlas Intel was the most accurate pollster in 2020 and currently has Trump up nationally + 2-same as Rassmussen
Fox News With Cavuto and all now have a liberal pollster doing their polls but even at +2 Harris this is a electoral college win for Trump-they are just messing with us
Political Polls
@PpollingNumbers
Once upon a time...
“I’m betting Black female majority votes for Trump”
can you really be that delusional?
15% Independents? Less than that given Greens and Libertarian.
This is highly questionable. 43/42 for R/D is not even remotely useful with a presumption of 15% Independents.
I would guess, I will get around to going back to look, but I would guess this is not the same turnout model used in August. Nobody would allow their product to remain 15% Independent.
Registered vs Likely means nothing nowadays. VBM erased that.
They must have had a very tiny Hispanic sample to get that large a swing.
I do see problems with these guys, and a 3% move is MOE territory, and national, with Calif and NY dominating.
Get this through your heads FR . . . Trump is not going to win the Popular Vote with those enormous leads for Harris in Calif and NY. And whoever above it was that said 2% loses is correct. Because of the overconcentration in those two states.
Most recent polls show Trump further behind than this.
Harris is favored to win the popular vote, the electoral vote can go either way. What’s disturbing is that Trump is making big progress in CA and NY (compared to 2020), but not so much in the battleground states.
No, I simply trust Trump that much.
Latest poll I can find in NY shows a 20% Harris lead vs 2020 23% for Biden.
California is 24% lead vs 28% 2020.
This is not a Trump surge (it’s not really a useful number overall since one number is actual measurement vs one an MOE sample) that would imply a battleground vs national differential is diminished — requiring her to have a 3% lead vs 3.5%. It’s not valid math to conclude that.
And maybe worst of all for the purity of the math, NY 2020 with the Covid VBM dominance had only 1% not voting Trump or Biden. There are other options this year in NY that are taking votes from Harris in polls.
Trump wins easily as most reasonable people know
It is always the same 4-5 kinda funny
Gotta set the stage for the steal.
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