Most recent polls show Trump further behind than this.
Harris is favored to win the popular vote, the electoral vote can go either way. What’s disturbing is that Trump is making big progress in CA and NY (compared to 2020), but not so much in the battleground states.
Latest poll I can find in NY shows a 20% Harris lead vs 2020 23% for Biden.
California is 24% lead vs 28% 2020.
This is not a Trump surge (it’s not really a useful number overall since one number is actual measurement vs one an MOE sample) that would imply a battleground vs national differential is diminished — requiring her to have a 3% lead vs 3.5%. It’s not valid math to conclude that.
And maybe worst of all for the purity of the math, NY 2020 with the Covid VBM dominance had only 1% not voting Trump or Biden. There are other options this year in NY that are taking votes from Harris in polls.
Trump wins easily as most reasonable people know
Trump is only campaigning in CA & NY for two reasons:
1) To keep the House seats of vulnerable Republicans in districts that went for Biden in 2020.
2) To raise money.
You’ll see more action in the battle ground states starting next week.