Posted on 07/18/2024 4:47:13 PM PDT by libh8er
POLITICS Trump's national lead over Biden grows — CBS News poll By Anthony Salvanto, Jennifer De Pinto, Fred Backus, Kabir Khanna
Updated on: July 18, 2024 / 5:40 PM EDT / CBS News
When former President Donald Trump accepts the Republican nomination Thursday night, he'll do so with his largest national lead over President Biden in the campaign thus far.
A slight majority, including some who aren't voting for him, say Trump's words in the days since the assassination attempt have been more unifying than divisive. Voters feel the same way about Mr. Biden's response to the tragic events, too.
But it is Trump with the growing advantage in the vote. Trump is up five points nationally now, and three across the key battleground states. To put that national lead in context: it's been 20 years since a Republican presidential candidate has won the national popular vote, and over 30 years since a Republican won by more than five.
The race across the battlegrounds moved one point more toward Trump today since we surveyed the battlegrounds last week.
For voters, Trump's perceived handling of the assassination attempt is a net-positive reason to consider voting for him, but that effect is limited overall; for two-thirds, it has not changed their consideration calculus either way.
Of the candidates atop the party tickets, Trump is the one more voters feel fights "a lot" for people like them.
(Excerpt) Read more at cbsnews.com ...
Apples to Apples — CBS July 3 poll has Trump +2. So this is a +3 after the gunshot, and the July 3 number was post debate.
These are not big moves. The world has not decided on Trump, and Biden has not yet even had his convention.
Biden popular vote 2020 read +4.5. This is a huge move from 2020, but nearly all of that is from lawfare. There is no sudden love for Trump or rage about Biden’s cognition.
Nobody cares about the things people want to spend time on. This is just anger about inflation and anger at prosecutions. The border is likely not moving many votes. There was never an embracing of what Biden did at the border, but there never was. There has been no change in that.
It’s all inflation and lawfare.
More than a 50/50 chance that this is propaganda to push Biden out. Once the new Dem nominee is in place, the See-BS poll miraculously will show the Dem tied or in the lead.
Biden has only told them 50X that he is focused on the campaign.
A lot of this is building up an image of him as a steadfast and courageous fighter who is committed to his principles and will not run away. They need that to combat the assassination photo.
And yes, btw, the hatred of Trump is profound. There is almost no one in that array who will have their minds changed, and so the numbers are not going to move hardly at all.
The race is within the MOE of just about every poll — because of the above. There is no reason for him to drop out.
To quote norm: notice that the numbers do not add up to 100% as the math was done by a woman
Showing once again that Americans in general do NOT like to be on the ‘USS Titanic’ even if they have ‘the good seats.’ ;)
Good observations. Does it seem strange that Trump’s lead nationally at 5 points is actually larger than his lead in the 5 battleground states? I am not able to square that number. I would have expected the battleground state leads to be more than 5. It could be the smaller samples. Any ideas?
I did notice that. When you start looking at those details you are shrinking a sample size that may have been something like 1200 nationally to a few hundred or a few 10s in particular states.
MOE becomes enormous.
It doesn’t say that. It says Now 52%-47%, July 3 50%-48%
I needed an /s switch
Nothing wrong with it. Just means bigger leads in other states. Or at least implied. Not shocking since those are called “battleground” for a reason.
Math does not add up. It is likely very big errors in the battleground states.
democraps have won multiple times with replacing crappy candidate with new crappy candidate and claiming its new. The problem here is that Bidens donation warchest can only be used by him and Kamala.
52-47 Trump over Biden.
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