Apples to Apples — CBS July 3 poll has Trump +2. So this is a +3 after the gunshot, and the July 3 number was post debate.
These are not big moves. The world has not decided on Trump, and Biden has not yet even had his convention.
Biden popular vote 2020 read +4.5. This is a huge move from 2020, but nearly all of that is from lawfare. There is no sudden love for Trump or rage about Biden’s cognition.
Nobody cares about the things people want to spend time on. This is just anger about inflation and anger at prosecutions. The border is likely not moving many votes. There was never an embracing of what Biden did at the border, but there never was. There has been no change in that.
It’s all inflation and lawfare.
Good observations. Does it seem strange that Trump’s lead nationally at 5 points is actually larger than his lead in the 5 battleground states? I am not able to square that number. I would have expected the battleground state leads to be more than 5. It could be the smaller samples. Any ideas?