Early voting surges...but not among black voters.

October 10, 2020 | Vanity

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Below is a list of states that have accumulated substantial mail-in/early votes followed by the percentage share of votes cast by blacks in each state. In other words, of all the early votes that have been returned by mail or cast in person up until yesterday, these are percentages that were cast by black voters in each state:

Florida: 11% (Obama 2012: 14% of electorate)

Indiana: 5% (state AA population: 11%)

Maryland: 22% (state AA population: 33%)

Michigan: 8% (state AA population: 15%)

Neb(CD-2):4% (CD AA population: 10%)

N. Car.: 16% (Obama 1 pt. win in 2008: 23%)

Virg.: 13% (typically comprise 20% of electorate)

Yes, it is still early to make firm conclusions. But keep in mind that the Democratic Party embarked on a massive "vote early" campaign to encourage voters, especially black voters, to vote early by mail. More importantly, in states like NC and FL, which have large black populations and huge numbers of VBM, the pool of voters that have returned/cast ballots is not only "light" on black votes, it is "light" on Republican votes. (continued below)

[bort]

In other words, when registered Republicans (95% white) begin catching up to Democrats in early voting, the black share of the early vote electorate will DROP even further than these already low numbers.

Folks, there are 2 things going on here that bode well for Trump and Republicans:

1) This is 1998 all over again, just in reverse. In 1998, Republicans were expected to win seats in Congress following Bill Clinton's 1996 reelection. However, Republicans spent 100% of their time obsessing on Clinton's Lewinsky affair and impeachment. We lost seats and Newt resigned as Speaker. We lost because we pissed off Democrats by our non-stop Clinton attacks, and we offered our own voters NOTHING to vote for. Democrats are doing the same thing: their attacks on Trump do nothing but fire up the Republican base, and they have offered NOTHING of substance to blacks and other voters as a whole.

2) The "China Virus Drop-Off," as I predict, will result in a substantial net drop off of Democrat base voters due to fear of going to polling places. White voters drive to the polls to vote. When is the last time you took a bus to go vote? Suburban black voters drive to the polls. However, a very large share of black voters vote because of "voter drives." Church buses, Democrat vans, Souls to the Polls, black college voter drives, etc. These "voter drive" techniques have been neutered by China Virus. Democrats fear the China Virus--the media tells them to fear it, their elected leaders tell them to fear it, etc. Let's see: Black voters are not excited about Biden, black men are "ok" with Trump, and many in the community think they might die by getting into crowded spaces like polling places, buses, and vans. This is why a state like Virginia is "in play." Discuss....

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Ping.

[DIRTYSECRET]

Must be giving free covid shots.

[bort]

BTW, I should note that in Georgia blacks are exceeding their share of the electorate in early voting. However, there is a well-funded black senate candidate on the ballot and a lot of this early vote is coming from the Atlanta area.

[Leaning Right]

If they’re not voting then they are not really black. Joe Biden himself told me that just the other day.

[PghBaldy]

What are the numbers? How were they obtained?

[elpadre]

Question - How do they determine ballots are from white or black citizens? I thought balloting was color-blind!

[HapaxLegamenon]

Makes sense. I hope you are right.

[dp0622]

In 24 days I can really give you some important numbers :)

I guess it’s fun looking at all this stuff but it’s all conjecture in the end.

[bort]

Some of the numbers come from state boards of election. Many come from TargetSmart, which is a Democrat firm that models voters. In southern states, “race” is noted on the voter file—it’s required bc of the Voting Rights Act. In states like Michigan and Indiana, Target Smart “models” the voters. Bottom line, in states like NC and FL where we can verify 100% the race of each voter, the numbers are the same as in other states. Black voting is lagging in early voting. Go to Target Smart’s early voting site.

[FreedomPoster]

My voter registration includes racial identification. I just saw it on the GA MyVoter page.

[Pilgrim's Progress]

All those white idiots pretending to be black and carrying #BLM signs are trying to make up for their lack of participation . . .

[bort]

Question - How do they determine ballots are from white or black citizens? I thought balloting was color-blind!
_______________________________________________________
First, I can tell you from having managed a congressional campaign that campaigns have access to every piece of demographic data about each voter—age, sex, race, voting history, income, etc.

Second, as to race, the Voting Rights Act requires southern states to keep track of race on their voter profiles. As to northern states, TargetSmart.com “models” the voters. Obviously, there are many zip codes that are all white or all black, etc.

[nathanbedford]

1) This is 1998 all over again, just in reverse. In 1998, Republicans were expected to win seats in Congress following Bill Clinton's 1996 reelection. However, Republicans spent 100% of their time obsessing on Clinton's Lewinsky affair and impeachment. We lost seats and Newt resigned as Speaker. We lost because we pissed off Democrats by our non-stop Clinton attacks, and we offered our own voters NOTHING to vote for. Democrats are doing the same thing: their attacks on Trump do nothing but fire up the Republican base, and they have offered NOTHING of substance to blacks and other voters as a whole.

A lot of questionable sweeping assumptions there and from a questionable source, Wikipedia. I would caution readers not to accept them at face value.

For the record, I think there are increasing signs out there of a Trump resurgence in Arizona, Florida, Pennsylvania and Michigan.

[DesertRhino]

That’s the problem with early voting. Essentially, the Democrats are performing a count before the official count. They’re able to go down the checklist and see which registered Dems still have not voted, then go vote harvesting or creating.
Any sort of analysis of incoming votes at this point serves no legitimate purpose except Dem fraud efforts.

[cyclotic]

I hate the very concept of early voting.

So much can happen in the last days before the actual election. (see 2020 as a case study)

I don’t see anyone with a brain shifting from Trump to Biden, but I’m sure there will be many early Biden voters who may deeply regret their early vote.

[ConservativeInPA]

I hope you are correct but a lot of analysis at this point, which I do as well seems, like a juicy rationalization. Video at link for your viewing pleasure.

[centurion316]

Urban Black voters are used to a GOTV campaign that includes a free ride to the polling place and some walking money for their trouble. The Democrats shelved the GOTV because of COVID and believed that a VBM with ballots mailed to all registered voters would make it easy for Democrats and they would mail in their vote. The bonus would be the voter fraud effort and together they would overwhelm the Republicans.

But, what about the walking around money? Well, it’s being used in the voter fraud efforts, paying for phoney or invalid ballots, but those who mail in their own ballot my themselves don’t get paid. That’s a problem for the Democrats.

We’ll see if their plan works. I have doubts.

[kara37]

Any sort of analysis of incoming votes at this point serves no legitimate purpose except Dem fraud efforts.
****************************************8

Correct, real data matters, not who votes first.

This is the real data from Fl

Florida Voter Registration Edge:

2008: Dem edge over Rep: 694,147
Result: Obama wins by 236,148

2012: Dem edge: 558,272
Result: Obama wins by 74,309

2016: Dem edge: 330,428
Result: Trump wins by 112,991

2020: Dem edge as of 10/9: 136,294
Result:

[daler]

“I hate the very concept of early voting.”

I agree, for the reason you stipulated.

But what bothers me even more is “late vote-counting.”

Democrat governors and other libs are already publicly stating we may not have the results until TWO WEEKS after Election Day.

Not only is this insanity, it’s clearly a strategy to allow Democrats a means to “obtain” enough votes to win a close race.

I can’t think of any legitimate reason the votes can’t be tabulated and a winner declared within a day or two of Election Day.

We can only hope the president’s legal team is on this.