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Recession indicator with perfect track record flashing red.
Fox Business ^ | 8/14/2019 | Jonathan Garber

Posted on 08/14/2019 5:00:12 AM PDT by carriage_hill

Moody's Capital Markets Chief Economist John Lonski on the U.S. trade tensions with China and concerns about the U.S. economic outlook. The yield curve is blaring a recession warning.

The spread between the U.S. 2-year and 10-year yields on Wednesday turned negative for the first time since 2007. Such a development has occurred ahead of each and every U.S. recession of the last 50 years, sometimes leading by as much as 24 months.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 210inversion; debt; recession; stockmarket; yieldcurve
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Same thing over here.

This is not looking stable at all.

1 posted on 08/14/2019 5:00:12 AM PDT by carriage_hill
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To: carriage_hill

One day of an inversion is not a recession indicator. Give it two weeks or a month, and then it will be indicative.

Plus...the stock market is NOT the economy.


2 posted on 08/14/2019 5:02:31 AM PDT by Vermont Lt
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To: carriage_hill

It’s time to start talking down the economy. The powers that be want to blame something on Trump. Get people despairing and ready for a change.


3 posted on 08/14/2019 5:02:36 AM PDT by discipler (How's that 'hope and change' working for 'ya? - RL)
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To: carriage_hill
turned negative for the first time since 2007.

What color did it turn when BHO was in office?

4 posted on 08/14/2019 5:03:12 AM PDT by rjsimmon (The Tree of Liberty Thirsts)
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To: rjsimmon

Black.


5 posted on 08/14/2019 5:05:33 AM PDT by dp0622 (Bad, bad company Till the day I die.)
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To: carriage_hill
Early Wednesday, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was at 1.623%, below the 2-year yield at 1.634%. The last inversion of this part of the yield curve was in December 2005, two years before a recession brought on by the financial crisis hit.

If the event signaled by this indicator sometimes occurred TWO YEARS LATER, then is it really an indicator at all? That's eight quarters worth of GDP figures there.

If I bet on one NFL game every week next season, nobody is going to call me a football expert if it takes me up to eight weeks to win a single bet.

6 posted on 08/14/2019 5:05:57 AM PDT by Alberta's Child ("Knowledge makes a man unfit to be a slave." -- Frederick Douglass)
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To: discipler

We have a winner. We will be hearing more of these stories over the next year whether based in fact or not. The democrats can’t run against the economy so they will try to either destroy it or make people believe it’s collapsing. It’s all they’ve got.


7 posted on 08/14/2019 5:06:45 AM PDT by redangus
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To: carriage_hill

With energy prices low and taxes down I’m still feeling pretty optimistic.


8 posted on 08/14/2019 5:09:31 AM PDT by Mr Ramsbotham ("God is a spirit, and man His means of walking on the earth.")
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To: rjsimmon

Half black.


9 posted on 08/14/2019 5:10:28 AM PDT by Texas Eagle (If it wasn't for double-standards, Liberals would have no standards at all -- Texas Eagle)
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To: rjsimmon

Skittles


10 posted on 08/14/2019 5:13:36 AM PDT by ClearCase_guy (If White Privilege is real, why did Elizabeth Warren lie about being an Indian?)
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To: rjsimmon

High Yellow.


11 posted on 08/14/2019 5:13:37 AM PDT by EEGator
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To: carriage_hill

I bet all the liberal pundits are giddy.


12 posted on 08/14/2019 5:14:21 AM PDT by Garvin (It was just all fun and games until a .45 ACP shows up.)
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To: Vermont Lt

I will give it 2 months, and then probably convert my IRAs to cash, within the IRAs, and let it all sit. No withdrawls, no penalty. Same with other investments. I took a 50% hit back in 2010.


13 posted on 08/14/2019 5:18:03 AM PDT by carriage_hill (A society grows great when old men plant trees, in whose shade they know they will never sit.)
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To: carriage_hill

My guy at Fidelity told me last year that they are planning on a recession in 2020. Planning? I asked. Yeah, it’s inevitable, is what I was told. Hmm, election, is what I thought.


14 posted on 08/14/2019 5:18:08 AM PDT by rhombus10
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To: carriage_hill

I think everything is going to be O.K. If markets and economics could be predicted there would be a shortage of 100 foot yachts.


15 posted on 08/14/2019 5:19:32 AM PDT by 1Old Pro
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To: Alberta's Child
If the event signaled by this indicator sometimes occurred TWO YEARS LATER, then is it really an indicator at all? That's eight quarters worth of GDP figures there. If I bet on one NFL game every week next season, nobody is going to call me a football expert if it takes me up to eight weeks to win a single bet.

Great observation. Are we sure that a recession for the election isn't just somebody's wishful thinking?

16 posted on 08/14/2019 5:21:28 AM PDT by rhombus10
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To: rhombus10

The leftists/socialists/anarchists/commies/demonkkkRATs are doing everything they can to drive the US markets and economy into the dumps, before 2020.


17 posted on 08/14/2019 5:23:25 AM PDT by carriage_hill (A society grows great when old men plant trees, in whose shade they know they will never sit.)
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To: carriage_hill

They’re trained that there MUST always be a recession after a decent growth period. What they’re not trained in is the effect of external political develops on creating recessions. Consider:

1a) Early 1970s - Clean Air Act, Clean Water Act, Civil Rights Act (a bit earlier, but kicking in), Arab Oil Embargo
1b) Mid to late 1970s - Economy crashes

2a) Early 1980s - Reagan-style Deregulation
2b) Mid 1980s - Economy grows like mad

3a) Early 1990 - Kinder, Gentler, America results in massively expensive updates to the Clean Air and Clean Water Acts, the Wheelchair Act, and more Civil Rights stuff
3b) 1992 - Worst economy in the last 50 years (not quite that bad, but yes, a recession)
3c) Mid 1990s - Economy left alone - grows strongly

...so now:

Late 2010’s: Massive deregulation and other pro-business policies
2020: Take a guess.


18 posted on 08/14/2019 5:23:33 AM PDT by BobL (I eat at McDonald's and shop at Walmart - I just don't tell anyone.)
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To: discipler

This will be pushed by MSM and all the democrat liberal talking heads. This is a democrat manufactured talking point.... it is all they have... hurt the people and say it is all Trump’s fault. I have been amazed at all the democrats and liberal talking heads making up and telling lies over and over.


19 posted on 08/14/2019 5:30:41 AM PDT by DOC44
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To: carriage_hill

Oh it’s going south there is way too much junk food in the lunch room at work for the engineers. It gets like this before a big crash. At least the last two times


20 posted on 08/14/2019 5:31:36 AM PDT by datricker (Cut Taxes Repeal ACA Deport DACA - Americans First, Build the Wall, Lock her up MAGA!)
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