[Alberta's Child]

Early Wednesday, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was at 1.623%, below the 2-year yield at 1.634%. The last inversion of this part of the yield curve was in December 2005, two years before a recession brought on by the financial crisis hit.

If the event signaled by this indicator sometimes occurred TWO YEARS LATER, then is it really an indicator at all? That's eight quarters worth of GDP figures there.

If I bet on one NFL game every week next season, nobody is going to call me a football expert if it takes me up to eight weeks to win a single bet.

[rhombus10]

If the event signaled by this indicator sometimes occurred TWO YEARS LATER, then is it really an indicator at all? That's eight quarters worth of GDP figures there. If I bet on one NFL game every week next season, nobody is going to call me a football expert if it takes me up to eight weeks to win a single bet.

Great observation. Are we sure that a recession for the election isn't just somebody's wishful thinking?

[Georgia Girl 2]

“The last inversion of this part of the yield curve was December 2005”

I was a mortgage broker and I saw the handwriting on the wall in January of 2005. Called my realtor and said “things are going to get bad dump my mountain house because I’m not going to be able to make two mortgage payments.” I sold it in December 2005 at the top of the market made a good profit and things immediately started heading South for 10 years.