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Recession indicator with perfect track record flashing red.
Fox Business ^ | 8/14/2019 | Jonathan Garber

Posted on 08/14/2019 5:00:12 AM PDT by Carriage Hill

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To: carriage_hill

Predicting the future eh?

So, tell me John, exactly when is Jesus returning?


61 posted on 08/14/2019 8:49:45 AM PDT by faucetman (Just the facts, ma'am, Just the facts)
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To: carriage_hill

The track is not perfect nor infallable.


62 posted on 08/14/2019 8:51:30 AM PDT by bert ( (KE. NP. N.btyC. +12) Progressives are existential American enemies)
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To: jdsteel

They’d be bidding down the short term rates if the Fed wasn’t manipulating them.


63 posted on 08/14/2019 8:58:27 AM PDT by Moonman62 (Charity comes from wealth.)
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To: faucetman

The media practices Gnosticism.


64 posted on 08/14/2019 9:13:24 AM PDT by cowboyusa (America Cowboy Up)
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To: carriage_hill

Liberals want a recession!


65 posted on 08/14/2019 9:16:46 AM PDT by DungeonMaster (Prov 24: Do not fret because of evildoers. Do not associate with those given to change.)
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To: DivineMomentsOfTruth
😄😄😄
66 posted on 08/14/2019 7:06:27 PM PDT by Garvin (It was just all fun and games until a .45 ACP shows up.)
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To: Moonman62

Except there is no such thing as a short term debt auction.


67 posted on 08/14/2019 8:35:28 PM PDT by jdsteel (Americans are Dreamers too!!!)
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To: jdsteel

I think you need to be more specific.


68 posted on 08/14/2019 9:41:30 PM PDT by Moonman62 (Charity comes from wealth.)
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To: Moonman62

Ok... There is NO SUCH THING as a short term debt auction.
Doesn’t exist.
No auction.
None.

Better????


69 posted on 08/15/2019 5:30:35 PM PDT by jdsteel (Americans are Dreamers too!!!)
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To: jdsteel

The Treasury page says they do.


70 posted on 08/15/2019 5:46:07 PM PDT by Moonman62 (Charity comes from wealth.)
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To: jdsteel
Ok... There is NO SUCH THING as a short term debt auction.

There are some 4-week and 8-week T-Bills for sale next week.

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/annceresult.htm

71 posted on 08/15/2019 8:58:46 PM PDT by Toddsterpatriot (TANSTAAFL)
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To: Toddsterpatriot

Dude; the Fed sets SHORT TERM RATES. It includes overnight rates for banks. That’s the ONLY rates they set. The rest are set by the market.

This is Fed 101.


72 posted on 08/15/2019 9:06:10 PM PDT by jdsteel (Americans are Dreamers too!!!)
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To: Moonman62

Nope.

Not arguable.

Once again, the Fed sets short term rates, including overnight rates that banks pay if they don’t have enough reserves and have to borrow overnight from the Fed.

Those are the ONLY rates set by the Fed. The rest are set by the market.


73 posted on 08/15/2019 9:09:54 PM PDT by jdsteel (Americans are Dreamers too!!!)
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To: jdsteel

Nope.

Not arguable.

...

You don’t want it to be arguable because you are wrong.

The government does auction short term debt. You’re wrongly claiming that the funds rate is the only short term rate.

That’s why I invited you to be more specific, but you let your feelings get hurt instead.


74 posted on 08/16/2019 5:24:32 AM PDT by Moonman62 (Charity comes from wealth.)
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To: jdsteel

I think you will find this article informative:

Treasury bills are more predictably influenced by the fed funds rate than notes and bonds because Treasury bills and the fed funds rate are competing investments in the money market. The money market is the market for high-quality, short-term debt instruments. Just as individuals put uninvested cash into money market mutual funds, where they can earn interest without putting principal at risk, institutional investors for the same purpose invest directly in the money markets by buying instruments like fed funds and Treasury bills. As investments, fed funds and Treasury bills generally offer comparable yields.

https://www.thestreet.com/story/1156889/1/how-does-the-fed-funds-rate-affect-treasury-bills.html


75 posted on 08/16/2019 5:50:11 AM PDT by Moonman62 (Charity comes from wealth.)
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To: LS

drudge?...who dat?


76 posted on 08/16/2019 5:54:47 AM PDT by cherry
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To: jdsteel
It includes overnight rates for banks. That’s the ONLY rates they set. The rest are set by the market.

Yes. Overnight rates.

The 4-week and 8-week bills that are auctioned next week are set by the market. Short-term debt auction.

77 posted on 08/16/2019 6:50:20 AM PDT by Toddsterpatriot (TANSTAAFL)
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To: Toddsterpatriot

The short term interest rates set by the Fed, which are as short a period of time as OVERNIGHT are different from Notes, Bills and Bonds.

My original post dealt with Fed set rates.

The Short term debt securities with a duration of weeks are short for bonds BUT ARE DIFFERENT AND LONGER THAN Fed short rates.

Get it?


78 posted on 08/17/2019 5:41:33 AM PDT by jdsteel (Americans are Dreamers too!!!)
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To: Moonman62

“I think you will find this article informative:”

I may have found that informative....over 30 years ago.

I am not sure why you are still chewing that bone trying to salvage something.


79 posted on 08/18/2019 7:38:55 PM PDT by jdsteel (Americans are Dreamers too!!!)
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To: jdsteel

I am not sure why you are still chewing that bone trying to salvage something.

....

Because I’m right and you’re wrong.


80 posted on 08/18/2019 11:09:01 PM PDT by Moonman62 (Charity comes from wealth.)
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