Posted on 04/09/2017 7:38:52 PM PDT by LS
By way of disclaimer, I have known Steve Bannon for years and we regularly communicate in rather short bursts. So my info on the "inside Team Trump" is pretty one-sided. I don't know Jared Kushner, know OF McMaster and recommended him to Team Trump (as did Victor Davis Hanson). So I know what I know, but it's a pretty limited range of insight.
1. The Syria strikes. I knew going in this would be a firestorm for Trump among his voters, especially the Ron Paul/non-interventionist backers (many of whom you see on Twitter).
I agree with many of you that the evidence was not clear that it was Assad---indeed, it could well have been ISIS. I also agree this does not help in our fight against ISIS. I further agree that regime change is dangerous on a number of levels.
That said, the strike was a multifaceted message, and unfortunately one that absolutely had to be sent, somewhere, somehow.
Recall as many of you have posted, in the past two years, the Russkies have been getting extremely provocative, doing flybys of American ships, sailing into our waters, and so on. Forget who is "responsible" for Ukraine, the fact is Ukraine unloaded its nukes cuz we promised them we would protect them via NATO. Now that promise is vanishing. Our word certainly is not good from the Ukrainian perspective.
I start Syria with Russia because at some point, somewhere, Putin had to get a message that while we want peace and want to work with him, he cannot possibly be allowed to threaten (as he already has) American ships at sea and sail in our waters. This is flat out aggression.
It can be stopped, and nipped in the bud, but how? Consider Syria a "brush back pitch" to the Russian batter. (In baseball, when the hitter takes advantage of the plate and gets too far into the pitcher's zone, the pitcher throws one high and tight to brush him back and say, "No, you have to play by the rules.")
I do believe Putin not only got this message, but was expecting it. He wanted to see if Trump was Obama The bad news is that it had to go on this long, but like any aggressor, the longer you wait, the bloodier it becomes to stop him. I think Putin got the message. Yes, he's making a lot of threats. But he now knows Trump will act when provoked and act DECISIVELY. Whether you agree with the strike or not, you can't accuse Trump of "indecision."
Further, I think the brush-back pitch worked on Iran and the NORKs. Coming as it did when Xi was at dinner (indeed, I hear he was the first one to receive the news of the attack!), it was the equivalent of Trump pulling out a Colt .45 and laying it on the table and saying, "ok, Xi, let's chat." The fact that Xi apparently gave his blessing to American responses to the NORKs--in their own back yard---suggests the meeting was a 100% success. The brush back pitch was felt in China, too.
Many here do not agree with Trump's action. Many think he was being "played." I have heard (haven't verified it) that the "vote" to fire the missiles was unanimous among the NatSec team, including Bannon. He of course would never confirm or deny, nor would I ask. But what we have from "fake" news is one story that it was Kush v Bannon, another that it was Kush/Bannon v Mattis, and a third that it was everyone agreeing.
For the reasons I've outlined above NOT particularly relating to Syria, I believe the latter. Further, this was an opportunity to throw the brush-back pitch without civilian casualties and without a bunch of dead bodies being hauled out of a mosque. In other words, if Team Trump was looking for the "perfect" place to send a message, gas or no gas, this was it.
2. "Chaos/Turmoil inside Team Trump" Lately the Twitter people have been going nuts against Kushner thinking he is engaging in a war on Bannon. First, if you look at the picture of the "bunker" with everyone during the strike, the two people closest to Trump are Stephen Miller and Steve Bannon, right behind him. Kush is one person removed. Small things. Second, Bannon himself told me three nights ago, "I ain't goin' anywhere." I'm pretty sure that means DT said so, too. We keep missing this and missing this, but REGULARLY Team Trump throws out a piece of media "cheese" into the maze and the media rats chase it while Team Trump governs. I don't know if the Kush/Bannon "clash" is real or just cheese, but it would not surprise me if the two guys don't go get a beer every night and laugh.
Trump's management style is much like Lincoln's: get a bunch of top, smart people who have different ideas, let them fight, come to a decision that may favor one, the other, or even neither. Don't forget businessmen do not hesitate to drop non-producers. Trump fired Lewandowski, Manafort, and his OWN BROTHER (as did Thomas Watson, Jr. at IBM!) If anyone thinks he won't dump Kush for good reason, think again. Ditto Bannon.
3. McMaster. I vouched for McMaster as did Victor Davis Hanson. McMaster is one of the few people in the Pentagon with actual hands-on success at forming alliances with Muslims against other Muslims. He was a rebel throughout the Iraq war, which kept him from being promoted. He's exactly the type of outside-the-box thinker you want. I'm NOT concerned about his early comments on "radicals" being a minority. Folks, you will not find any commanders in the field, anywhere, saying all Muslims are terrorists. Won't happen, cuz they need locals as interpreters and most of the time as allies. Maybe personally they have different thoughts, but they cannot express those in a combat zone. I think McM's comments were typical of that battlefield thinking.
Bannon's removal from the NSC planning group was predicted in Trump's own plans early on. Bannon was there to de-politicize it, and he has, and he still has top clearance, as you've all seen. I could be wrong, but of all the things to worry about, McM ain't one of them.
Finally, we are in a VERY dangerous position due to Obama. If anyone thinks we could just retreat to our borders, it's way too late for that. The NORK nut could wipe out the entire west coast with a single EMP bomb over the north Pacific. Many here would say "yay," but of course that's crazy. The entire US would be set back massively, Japan would be wiped out and we'd have to retaliate big time. (I do think it's time we reconsider assassination as a policy). Zero let the Russkies run wild. We can nudge them back into their stall, but to act like they aren't out would be a mistake. And we still have to deal with Iran.
None of this is easy, and no one will agree with any one policy. Trump was handed an absolute bag of excrement in foreign policy. I think he is trying to avoid not just one, but three wars, and we all better hope the "brush back pitch" was heeded.
Excellent analysis. Thank you.
“The meeting was a 100% success.” I agree 100%. I trust the leadership team in DC and thankful that LS, Bannon and Hansen are involved. Plus, Long journal and Strategy page should also be involved. Plus, I hope all strategies remain quiet. According to Aristotle, the prudent politician appears to be relaxing and does not tell the whole truth. Trump playing golf again? Good strategy.
Thanks. President Trump responded with a strike that was
direct and affected Assad’s ability to deliver poisons
via bombing any time soon - without loss of life.
IF Trump had “debated” this move the way Timmy Kaine
suggested, he would have crossed paths with the Russian
ship rushed in after U.S. ship had already long gone.
President Trump acted quickly and decisively.
Finally a reaaaaally good post about the 59 Tomahawks!
Considering Obummer did not fire any cruise missiles, these 59 Tomahawks were probably getting close to expiration date. What better use for them than send Bashar, Vladimir, the Mullah’s of Iran and the fat man in Nork a jolting message.
Did ya all oysters notice it took 4 days for the Mullah’s & Putin to respond? Oysters crawl into their shell and then they get eaten by predators anyways.
Aside from oyster mentality, on this pro-life forum why are there so many posters who do not care to stop killing of babies in a horrible manner by chemical WMD’s? Are’nt Syrian babies created by God as well? Why be hypocritical about pro-life by ignoring the butchering of babies in Syria?
Military is one thing— the civilian structure in the US quite another. Per Gingrich and Forstchen’s efforts/book (fictional). The civilian grid is quite vulnerable. Your thoughts?
That would be true if a Low Bomber could make it in.
I doubt those odds.
It does require an altitude above mean 0 and probably 2000 AGL.
personally, i believe the long term goal should be to forge a working alliance with russia and china along with patched up relations with the EU... then all of us work together to get rid of isis / AQ and cool down NKorea.
no one wins from radical elements constantly working to light off a WMD in your capital.
unless someone is looking at the threat as a good excuse for increased taxes and defense spending. if that’s the case, we need to address that and find a better direction / motivation for our countries
Again, not what expert Bill says. Don’t care about military. Military useless if no car after 1950 can run, if no trains run, if water shut off for 30 million people, if no food can get in.
I’d call that an armageddon-type scenario. So you have a bunch of Navy ships that can’t refuel, or airplanes that can fly . . . once.
The civilian Infrastructure would be wiped out.
I really don’t believe anyone could get it here without a serious response.
he was remarking on a context 4 years old now.
you need to get up to speed gruffy
You understand what we learned way back when.
Ironically, zero would be among the first to feel the EMP at Brandon Isle that he brought on us, if it happened.
Thank you for putting it all together rationally and perceptively. I have suspected much of the relationship things but have seen no confirmation until this. I knew Bannon wasn’t “out,” but was curious as to the movements.
Insights appreciated, LS.
Because photos are never staged and people who don’t want to be convinced always are if you tell them as you are committing the action...
Who would you trust if not Trump? Who else hasn’t been bought & sold? Who has made the personal sacrifices to MAGA, MASA?
Trump told the gathered Press Corps at his first briefing: “it is a mess!” and repeated, “it is a mess!”. The United Press Corps ignored Trump’s summary of what he inherited from Obama.
Trump is a fast study. When he spoke in disbelief at how vulnerable we are (the mess), I understood. I agree with your analysis and will add that since Netanyahu (with Mossad data in hand) signed off on this “message”, that makes me quite content. Trump moved his Queen while keeping her and his King solidly protected.
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Thinking that laird mcslame is about to be “put away” by the famous dossier and the facts released about the internal surveillance— to include the GCHQ Brit/MI6 Steele guy who wrote it up for the clinton campaign, and the idiot “good citizen” mcain physically sent his “aide”over to UK to pick up, so that his hands wouldn’t be on it to the knowledge of SIGINT at NSA, and so it could only be matriculated through the FBI (since mcain said he gave it to Comey.... how about that one?) .
Popcorn time. This is a continuosly fulminating event and story. The russians helping trump is a “dead issue”... hopefully someone will administer the coup de grace and shut the dem libs filthy mouthes.
Don't forget to tell them to take their coloring books and crayons with them.
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