Posted on 11/06/2016 7:37:21 AM PST by LS
First, thanks to JimRob for a site that lets us present not only articles and news, but opinion pieces. (I'll be kicking in another $100 here in a few minutes).
Now, on to business.
Freepers Ravi and SpeedyinTexas have done a bang-up job tracking registrations and early votes in IA, FL, and NC. My unnamed friends in Dayton, OH have been very good about giving me inside data from OH.
Some time ago I predicted Trump would win OH, FL, IA, and NC. I think that's a given now. Pollster Richard Baris told him that Cankles' people privately told him NC was "gone." Yes, she's still in OH and FL, but I think these are more desperation efforts as she is literally now just one small state from being completely unable to win. NV, CO, MI, MN, VA, PA, WI, or any combo of those pretty much seals her doom, but of course we want them ALL.
Baris also confirmed today that his final weekend polling shows FL out of reach for her---as I said. My guys see it taking a miracle for her to win OH.
The early voting (EV) in NV is troubling in that Ds have about a 40,000 advantage---but overall it is down from 56% in 2012 to 52%, and the main thing (as in most of these states) is that we do not know how "independents" especially will vote. Most polls show Trump anywhere from 7 to 20 points up with indies. I tend to use about 10% as a yardstick. With that, and with just a small D crossover in NV, Trump will win there.
We have two polls that show antiTrump Rs/antiHillary Ds shaking out at between +5 Trump and +7 Trump. If that's the case, Trump would win PA, MI, VA, and probably MN.
A week ago, as some of you know, I got internals from Team Trump, with whom I've been in very close contact for two months. This comes from the very top. Those internals showed VERY close races in eight states, including MI, NM, PA, VA, CT, RI, OR, WI. All were very much within "turnout margin." Trump was up in some, down just 1-2 in others. I do not have an update on any of these except yesterday Trump's communications director said they were up in NM. This confirmed a report earlier in the week by Kellyanne Conway who said they were "tied" in NM and MI.
I've spoken with some R strategists in MI. This is very winnable and Trump is doing fantastic in Macomb Co., up double digits. He's down just single digits in Oakland. If Oakland can just be "managed," the north/west vote will outperform Wayne. Currently absentees from Wayne way off (-12%) so MI is looking very good. Again, apply the D/R crossover # above, and MI is quite possibly Trump's. This GOP source said that at the Macomb rally he'd "never seen so many blue collar Ds at a Republican rally."
PA appears tighter. Insiders say that Trump is up huge all over the state except Philly---even in Pitt---but the black vote in Philly is, based on performance everywhere else, likely to be down.
Currently in FL black vote is off 3, NC off by 4-6. These are astounding #s and mean that in FL Cankles will lose over 110,000 votes off Obama's total right there; in NC, closer to 200,000; and nationwide close to 1 million. Moreover, white votes are up everywhere, anywhere from 3-4% from 2012. Just to put that in perspective, the "Latino surge" in FL would have to be 40% HIGHER just to offset the white increase.
All these portend a very tight race in PA, VA, and possibly even WI. However, Team Trump pulled DT out of WI in favor of MN, where their internals show a very, very close race. As you know, he is up 12% in MN CD8, which no Republican has won.
If I had to guess, I'd say Trump wins MI, PA too close to call, we lose WI. Given the horrible polling record of VA, and the latest poll showing Trump +3 there, I have to think Trump also wins VA. The Nova districts are down (six of them) an average of 35% each, while southern/western VA (7 districts) were all up quite a bit in early voting. But VA doesn't do D/R ballots, so we have no way to really count by registration---which in large part is why polling there is so tough to confirm.
I think Trump has NM in a squeaker. CO too unpredictable to call. Rs lead early voting, but they led bigger in 2012 and lost. However, pot was on the ballot then, and isn't now. Moreover, most polls show "da yuts" are off by the same % as blacks, about -3%. Again, this is huge in places like CO. I can't call CO or NV now. There are indicators they could go either way.
NH was not on the "internals" list I saw, but four polls since then give Trump the lead there. I think it's likely in Trump's column, along with ME CD2.
Now, a few non-number/polling items. Slate has announced it will do "exit polling" reports all day on election day.
Of course, what this means is they will try to depress GOP turnout with false stories. REMEMBER 2004, when Drudge was running false exit polls and I told you at 4:00 pm after I did a key "poll flushing" at a battleground precinct that Bush won the election? THEY WILL LIE. You cannot get depressed about "exit lies."
A better barometer is obviously the election night calls. My prediction here is that they will DELIBERATELY delay any call for Trump until the last possible moment. In 2004, as Bill Sammon showed in his book "At Any Cost," the networks delayed all calls of Bush states up to FIVE TIMES as long as they called Gore states, when Bush had up to FIVE TIMES the margin of lead. In other words, if Bush was winning by 5 points in GA, they delayed it for an hour, while calling a Gore state with under 1% within 20 minutes.
THIS WILL HAPPEN. Probably the best indicator of a great Trump night is if, the minute after the polls close, they have NOT called VA, PA, and NH for Cankles. If these go 20 minutes with no call, Trump has likely won the election.
I remain confident, based on the USC Poll and PPD poll that Trump will win with about a 4-5% pop vote margin, will top 60m votes. I still think 300-320 EVs are entirely within reach.
If Cankles wins, we have all had the sad fortune of witnessing the last days of the greatest republic on earth.
I agree....but.....It’s the fraud that is the wild card here.....
RI is the most liberal state in the union (from early times) and my sister is very liberal. But she said a week ago that she has decided to vote for Trump. My phone nearly fell to the floor. She is voting mainly for fair trade and jobs, but also doesn’t like Hillary.
BTTT ...
Florida is in two time zones:
I clearly remember the media loudly calling Florida for Gore when the more conservative Panhandle basically had not yet voted.
They did it loudly and repeatedl, desperately trying to discourage Bush votes.
Nice summary, but was that last sentence necessary?
Nothing has been said of the military vote.
Thanks for the report. I think we will do fine.
ABC (Stephanopolous) this morning was full of confidence. Hillary wins this one going away. One prediction gave Hillary 322 EC votes. Basically, Trump has a few paths to victory, but that’s academic: he’s already lost.
You can see how the media will behave on Tuesday. They’re in high gear to tell lies in favor of Hillary. I ain’t buying it.
Repubs...Do NOT participate in exit polls....or lie...
Remember that, especially when Dan “Blather” Rather, on his nightly broadcast said “we need Florida.”
“but was that last sentence necessary?”
Yes, because it is true. She will destroy what is left of this nation as she holds a fire sale of what’s left.
Fairly, I think Trump wins.
I just wish we could see some polling from the key demographic of “Eternal Rest” voters to see how they may sway the election.
Yep. Voter fraud is the key in this election.
Trump has to win by at least 3-4% to overcome the margin of fraud.
On the other hand, the pollsters are counting votes by registered Democrats as votes for Hillary. Ever hear of Reagan Democrats? They’re back!
While I don’t think MA is in play, I can say that in my area (Metrowest) Trump signs have EXPLODED in the past week. Hillary signs have always been uncommon Trump signs have always been pretty common. In the past week, it’s been unreal. Trump signs are everywhere in this part of MA.
Of course cities determine election outcomes, but if Dem turnout is a little low in the metropolitan areas, then the suburbs get a louder voice.
Realistic, logical analysis LS. I do feel he will take CO and NV. PA is icing on a giant, MAGA victory cake.
I believe Trump will win and that, if HRC wins, it will have been on account of fraud. Therefore, if Trump loses, I refuse to despair. That Trump has got this far is nothing short of miraculous. This is a revolution, folks, and while I believe we need to win on Tuesday, we must not quit if we don't. We cannot let them steal our country from us. I'm not quitting; I'm not going away.
Having read your and Speedy’s postings, it seems we are seeing a good crossover of Dems voting for Trump and massive outright lies by the lamestream media on the polls.
Good honest appraisal of where Trump is.
Go Trump!
I think that’s the best forecast one can make with the quality of the polling these days.
The earliest signs we’ll see of a Trump victory will be winning NH and him getting a high margin in Ky with a high turnout there.
Lots of close states. Lots of poor polling.
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