I think that’s the best forecast one can make with the quality of the polling these days.
The earliest signs we’ll see of a Trump victory will be winning NH and him getting a high margin in Ky with a high turnout there.
Lots of close states. Lots of poor polling.
I think six states will be 1-2%, but that most will go the same way.
So it’s “close,” but then, it isn’t.