Posted on 10/26/2016 2:19:31 PM PDT by MMaschin
The eighth Congressional District of Minnesota is a working class area in Eastern Minnesota. It has voted for a Democrat in the last four Presidential elections. It has a Democrat Congressman and will likely be the most expensive Congressional race this year.
Usually, a Democrat Presidential candidate would win. But a recent poll held a shock:
Trump is up 12 points!
And more: Trump is winning among women. And the Democrat Party is losing members. They’re becoming Independents.
What The Data Says did this analysis of the Eighth Congressional District of Minnesota:
– Trump is beating Hillary by 12 points: “Our poll shows Republican Donald Trump with a 12-point lead over Clinton, 47 percent to 35 percent“
– Trump is winning with women: “leading Clinton 41 percent to 39 percent.”
– Dems are crossing over: “the number of Democrats dropped from 34 percent in 2014 to 27 percent in 2016. The number of independents jumped from 31 percent two years ago to 41 percent this year.“
You may say, this is one congressional district and it does not represent the whole country. Right it does not, but it does represent old fashion Democrats. Democrats who do not really support the party’s position on social issues, but have traditionally voted for Democrats because they believed the Democrat was for the “worker”. This district could be a microcosm of Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Iowa. According to Wikipedia, Minnesota’s 8th district has voted Democrat for the past 4 presidential elections, so why would it be polling +12 for Trump???
If this District is a sign of what’s happening in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Iowa, Trump is going to win in a landslide!
Voters are leaving the Democrat Party. They’re voting for Trump.
How many working class voters are doing the same thing?
According to the article, it was a group by the name of What The Data Says. Probably a local pollster out of the Twin Cities -- not necessarily unreliable.
I wear my NHL loyalties at the top of my profile page. LOL.
Now, go bar?
“‘Rats in Minneapolis will try to cheat if necessary to flip....”
Hennepin county has gone all electric voting. No paper ballots on election day. Out State had better show up in Huge numbers- or the DFL will once again steel an election.
Al Frankin, Gov Dayton. And when Judge Alan Page stood up, ballots fell from under his robe.
Way more than 4, DJ? Last Republican to win it? Ike?
Well before that. Not since 1928 has MN-8 voted GOP for President. It kept its voting habits for Republican William Pittenger (elected on and off from 1928 to 1944), but almost every county in the 8th from 1932 onwards voted Democrat. I didn’t add up the numbers for Ike, but given that Stevensone got over 60% in St. Louis County (Duluth) and over 50% in all but rural Cook County in the NE corner, he probably only got in the low 40s overall. Nixon got as close as 55-45% in 1972 mostly due to the southernmost counties (after 1962 redistricting). And lastly, Willard got within 5.5% of Zero,(46.2%), besting Nixon’s 1972 performance in 2012.
Indeed, for liberal Minnesota judges, once a citizen, always a citizen...that is, a citizen for eternity.
They cheat even if it ain't necessary...............
What’s the word from Lake Woebegone?................
That would be historic. Even Reagan didn’t win MN.......
Should have figured that.
If it It happens, Mills would certainly win, and dayum.
So this spurred me to finally go ahead and pony up the dough for full access to Dave Leip’s Atlas, my belated birthday gift to myself.
Newt said it was a done deal during his little dust up with Kelly the other night. Glad to see Mills cut his hair for this year’s run.
CD8, or actually the iron range, is the base of union/DFL power in MN. If Trump is up 12 in CD8, I think it may well be.
"Most NHL players from small towns have a similar life story. From the time they were young kids they were the best players in their hometowns. I was born and raised in Roseau, Minnesota -- which meant I was about the third-best player on the street where I grew up."
Turns out he grew up on the same street as the Brotens -- Neal, Aaron and Paul ... and played high school hockey with the first two. LOL.
But he did win 5 out of 8 CDs in 1984 (which was the max for a GOP Presidential candidate at the time, as they wouldn’t have carried the old Iron Range 8th or the 2 ultraleft Minneapolis-St. Paul CDs).
Under the lines when the 8th was its most compact from 1915-1963 (consisting of 6 counties: Cook, Lake, St. Louis, Carlton, Itasca & Koochiching), it’s still about as Democrat-voting as it was beginning in 1932. If there wasn’t an augmentation of the district since 1962 to where it is today (where it’s now roughly 1/4th of the entire state), the DFL wouldn’t be worried about it.
Richard Nolan doesn’t even reside in the boundaries of the old 8th, residing way out in Crosslake, Crow Wing County. Stewart Mills also hails from Crow Wing County, the county seat of Brainerd.
Chip Cravaack resided in North Branch, way down in Chisago County (closer to Mnps-St. Paul), and the 2010 battle where he defeated James Oberstar was curious, because Oberstar carried only the 6 former old 8th counties and Cravaack carried all the 12 “new 8th” post-1962 counties. When Nolan beat Cravaack in 2012, he carried just 8 of the 18 counties (just 2 of the “new 8th” counties and all 6 of the “old 8th”, but Nolan carried the latter by much wider margins than Oberstar did in 2010, notably St. Louis which voted just 57% for the Dem in ‘10 and 63% in ‘12. Nolan did not carry his home county of Crow Wing, which he lost by 4% to Cravaack).
Curiously in 2014, Mills obliterated Nolan in their shared home county with 57% and simultaneously, St. Louis gave Nolan the same exact percent. Mills carried 11 of 12 of the “new 8th” counties while Nolan got all of the “old 8th” and won a 7th county in the “new 8th” (Pine) by just 40 votes.
It will be interesting to see if Mills makes a crack in the old 8th “Red” wall this year, namely Itasca (51% for Nolan in ‘14), Koochiching (52%), Carlton (53%) & Lake (54%).
I do not know why the Twin Cities would stay with Shillary. My sis works in St. Paul and has always been a Republican. But she says that a high-speed train was built between Illinois and the Twin Cities and the gang bangers are riding it into Minneapolis all the time.
The cities are no longer safe and people are fearful of shopping and restaurants in downtown.
The huge population of Swedish and Lutheran has always been liberal but now the state is enjoying Barky’s radical sons.
Your sister in misinformed. There is no high speed service anywhere in America outside the Northeast Corridor (Boston-Washington).
The only train from Illinois to the Twin Cities is Amtrak's daily Empire Builder, which stops at St. Paul on its way from Chicago to Seattle. It's most certainly not high speed.
There is a light rail (trolley) line that serves St. Paul and Minneapolis, but it's not high speed either.
I was looking at the POTUS history of some of those counties in the 8th.
St. Louis (Duluth) Pretty straight forward, rat since 1932. Ramsey is it’s only competition now for most rat county in the state.
Cook in the corner of the state was ironically (cause of the name) the most Republican till recently. It voted for Ike twice, Nixon 3 times, Ford, Reagan twice, Dukakis took it narrowly in 1988. Since then it’s only gone GOP in 2000, Bush took it with a 45% plurality thanks to Nader, lost it in 2004.
Kooching isn’t overwhelming dem but Nixon in ‘72 and oddly Bush in 2000 (by majority, lost it in 2004) are the only times since 1928 it’s voted GOP
Itasca not overwhelmingly dem but hasn’t gone GOP since 1928
Lake (bordering Cook, more irony) has a strange nasty history as a hard-left wonderland. It last voted Republican in.........1932 when it was the only county in the state to vote for Hoover, who took it with a 42% plurality because the Socialist got 19%. It was over 70% Hoover in 1928 but LaFollette narrowly in 1924, Harding only by plurality (41%) with Debs ahead of the rat in 1920, Wilson in 1916, DEBS with a 36% plurality in 1912. So aside from that huge 1928 swing to Hoover it last voted majority Republican in 1908. Nixon in ‘72 was the last (and only post Hoover) to crack 40% though Romney got 38% which was better than he got in Cook, it was also slightly better than Cook for McCain.
Carlton county south of St. Louis, 13.5% Finnish!, 8.9% Norwegian, 8.6% Swedish, 5.9% American Indian, rat since ‘32, Nixon ‘72 only one to crack 40% since, 4 lowest GOP % in 2012 and 2008. 3rd lowest in 2004.
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