Should have figured that.
If it It happens, Mills would certainly win, and dayum.
So this spurred me to finally go ahead and pony up the dough for full access to Dave Leip’s Atlas, my belated birthday gift to myself.
Under the lines when the 8th was its most compact from 1915-1963 (consisting of 6 counties: Cook, Lake, St. Louis, Carlton, Itasca & Koochiching), it’s still about as Democrat-voting as it was beginning in 1932. If there wasn’t an augmentation of the district since 1962 to where it is today (where it’s now roughly 1/4th of the entire state), the DFL wouldn’t be worried about it.
Richard Nolan doesn’t even reside in the boundaries of the old 8th, residing way out in Crosslake, Crow Wing County. Stewart Mills also hails from Crow Wing County, the county seat of Brainerd.
Chip Cravaack resided in North Branch, way down in Chisago County (closer to Mnps-St. Paul), and the 2010 battle where he defeated James Oberstar was curious, because Oberstar carried only the 6 former old 8th counties and Cravaack carried all the 12 “new 8th” post-1962 counties. When Nolan beat Cravaack in 2012, he carried just 8 of the 18 counties (just 2 of the “new 8th” counties and all 6 of the “old 8th”, but Nolan carried the latter by much wider margins than Oberstar did in 2010, notably St. Louis which voted just 57% for the Dem in ‘10 and 63% in ‘12. Nolan did not carry his home county of Crow Wing, which he lost by 4% to Cravaack).
Curiously in 2014, Mills obliterated Nolan in their shared home county with 57% and simultaneously, St. Louis gave Nolan the same exact percent. Mills carried 11 of 12 of the “new 8th” counties while Nolan got all of the “old 8th” and won a 7th county in the “new 8th” (Pine) by just 40 votes.
It will be interesting to see if Mills makes a crack in the old 8th “Red” wall this year, namely Itasca (51% for Nolan in ‘14), Koochiching (52%), Carlton (53%) & Lake (54%).