Under the lines when the 8th was its most compact from 1915-1963 (consisting of 6 counties: Cook, Lake, St. Louis, Carlton, Itasca & Koochiching), it’s still about as Democrat-voting as it was beginning in 1932. If there wasn’t an augmentation of the district since 1962 to where it is today (where it’s now roughly 1/4th of the entire state), the DFL wouldn’t be worried about it.
Richard Nolan doesn’t even reside in the boundaries of the old 8th, residing way out in Crosslake, Crow Wing County. Stewart Mills also hails from Crow Wing County, the county seat of Brainerd.
Chip Cravaack resided in North Branch, way down in Chisago County (closer to Mnps-St. Paul), and the 2010 battle where he defeated James Oberstar was curious, because Oberstar carried only the 6 former old 8th counties and Cravaack carried all the 12 “new 8th” post-1962 counties. When Nolan beat Cravaack in 2012, he carried just 8 of the 18 counties (just 2 of the “new 8th” counties and all 6 of the “old 8th”, but Nolan carried the latter by much wider margins than Oberstar did in 2010, notably St. Louis which voted just 57% for the Dem in ‘10 and 63% in ‘12. Nolan did not carry his home county of Crow Wing, which he lost by 4% to Cravaack).
Curiously in 2014, Mills obliterated Nolan in their shared home county with 57% and simultaneously, St. Louis gave Nolan the same exact percent. Mills carried 11 of 12 of the “new 8th” counties while Nolan got all of the “old 8th” and won a 7th county in the “new 8th” (Pine) by just 40 votes.
It will be interesting to see if Mills makes a crack in the old 8th “Red” wall this year, namely Itasca (51% for Nolan in ‘14), Koochiching (52%), Carlton (53%) & Lake (54%).
I was looking at the POTUS history of some of those counties in the 8th.
St. Louis (Duluth) Pretty straight forward, rat since 1932. Ramsey is it’s only competition now for most rat county in the state.
Cook in the corner of the state was ironically (cause of the name) the most Republican till recently. It voted for Ike twice, Nixon 3 times, Ford, Reagan twice, Dukakis took it narrowly in 1988. Since then it’s only gone GOP in 2000, Bush took it with a 45% plurality thanks to Nader, lost it in 2004.
Kooching isn’t overwhelming dem but Nixon in ‘72 and oddly Bush in 2000 (by majority, lost it in 2004) are the only times since 1928 it’s voted GOP
Itasca not overwhelmingly dem but hasn’t gone GOP since 1928
Lake (bordering Cook, more irony) has a strange nasty history as a hard-left wonderland. It last voted Republican in.........1932 when it was the only county in the state to vote for Hoover, who took it with a 42% plurality because the Socialist got 19%. It was over 70% Hoover in 1928 but LaFollette narrowly in 1924, Harding only by plurality (41%) with Debs ahead of the rat in 1920, Wilson in 1916, DEBS with a 36% plurality in 1912. So aside from that huge 1928 swing to Hoover it last voted majority Republican in 1908. Nixon in ‘72 was the last (and only post Hoover) to crack 40% though Romney got 38% which was better than he got in Cook, it was also slightly better than Cook for McCain.
Carlton county south of St. Louis, 13.5% Finnish!, 8.9% Norwegian, 8.6% Swedish, 5.9% American Indian, rat since ‘32, Nixon ‘72 only one to crack 40% since, 4 lowest GOP % in 2012 and 2008. 3rd lowest in 2004.