Posted on 03/15/2016 6:36:57 PM PDT by WilliamIII
Summary: Keeping John Kasich in the race divides the anti-Trump vote.
Two months ago, based on a computer model I developed of the Republican delegate race, I wrote in The American Prospect that the GOP’s nomination rules tilted the playing field to Donald Trump’s advantage. For Trump’s opponents, the time window for counteracting many of those advantages and winning a first-ballot nomination has passed. Now the campaign enters a new phase, as Trump’s rivals try to deny him a majority of pledged delegates going into the convention. Simulating the remaining contests based on current polling data, my model picks up an unexpected wrinkle: Trump’s strongest position comes if he loses the primary in Ohio on Tuesday.
(Excerpt) Read more at prospect.org ...
Thanks.
Is he the guy to fight the fascist left? He doesn't even believe it exists. Sad sack.
um.. no, it doesn’t
it was a DICK move on the part of Kasich, to keep Trump from winning... Kasich will win NO OTHER states
“Trump’s strongest position comes if he loses the primary in Ohio on Tuesday.”
I don’t know about that, because a clean sweep tonight would have sealed the deal.
However, I can see the point of the author as evidenced by Cruz and Kasich splitting in IL and Trump winning easily.
Mofopolitics said this.
Trump just has to win winner takes most states.
Hate on Cruz all you want, but with Rubio leaving the race, this is already a very good night for Cruz. He will most likely be right behind Trump in delegates going into the convention, and is more likely than Trump to retain delegate loyalty after the first ballot. If Trump doesn't get 1237 before the convention, then we'll learn if Donald is the great negotiator he says he is.
As for Kasich, before today he's been above 15% in only 3 states. And he's added more single-digit flops tonight. HE is the one with no path to victory who should get out of the race.
The establishment is also worried about whether 1/3, 1/2 or 1 million Trump supporters will be in Cleveland in July.
Cruz can’t bring those numbers of people in.
Agreed ...Trump is for free trade but wants it to be fair ..Levin keeps lying about Trump, comparing Trump to Hoover ... I think Levin’s big motivation is neo-con interventionism leading to conflict with Russia and Iran
Anyone who believes that . . . . . . But then I am old school, where it is was written in religious scripture "Winning isn't everything . . . . . . . . . . . . it's the only thing!
I propose settling any Islamic settlers in Kaisch backyard. They can start their jihad with him.
No, that was a myth advocated by Bill O'Reilly.
A Trump sweep of Ohio and Florida would have hurt Trump because polls show that with Rubio and Kasich both out of the race Cruz gets their votes about 3-1 vs. Trump.
I've modeled the scenarios. It was kind of win-win for Trump going in... either he gets the delegates or he keeps the crowded field that helps him down the line.
But down the line was more important (more delegates up for grab) than just tonight. So Rubio dropping out hurts Trump more than the 99 Florida delegates help Trump, and conversely Kasich winning Ohio helps Trump more than losing those 66 delegates hurt him.
What Trump really needed to nearly "clinch" the 1237 was to win Florida but have Rubio stay in the race even though he lost. Rubio claimed he was going to do this, but fortunately for Cruz fans and unfortunately for Trump fans, Rubio dropped out.
Trump supporters WILL stay home.
LOL!
At that point it’s a disaster.
Probably talking Dem control of WH, SCOTUS, and Congress for decades.
We can forget about politics on FR and just discuss guns, prepping, and sports.
Losing to win is just plain stupid, no matter what you might think
With Rubio out of the race, Cruz stands a very good chance at winning: Utah, Arizona, Indiana, South Dakota, Montana and New Mexico.
Trump remains favored in: New York, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and New Jersey.
But the following states now become tossups: Wisconsin (Cruz has the edge), Colorado (total tossup), Delaware (Trump edge), Connecticut (Trump edge), Maryland (Trump edge), Oregon (Cruz edge), Washington (Cruz edge), and California (Cruz edge).
Let's check back later to see who's predictions turn out closer to reality, yours or mine.
“What Trump really needed to nearly “clinch” the 1237 was to win Florida but have Rubio stay in the race even though he lost. Rubio claimed he was going to do this, but fortunately for Cruz fans and unfortunately for Trump fans, Rubio dropped out. “
Did you account for Rubio voters going to Kasich?
So in CA Cruz and Kasich split and Trump wins?
Perhaps
You are completely delusional. I don’t see Cruz calling Ryan so they can start planning their “arts of the deal.” And it seems you are calling into question Levin’S conservative credentials....I assume you’re ok with Trump’s?
“If the 2nd place guy walks away with the Republican nomination, we deserve Hillary.
Trump supporters WILL stay home. “
Dems are counting on that.
That’s why Trump must be the nominee.
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