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Losing Ohio Improves Trump’s Chances to Win the Nomination
American Prospect ^ | Mar 14 2014 | Sam Wang

Posted on 03/15/2016 6:36:57 PM PDT by WilliamIII

Summary: Keeping John Kasich in the race divides the anti-Trump vote.

Two months ago, based on a computer model I developed of the Republican delegate race, I wrote in The American Prospect that the GOP’s nomination rules tilted the playing field to Donald Trump’s advantage. For Trump’s opponents, the time window for counteracting many of those advantages and winning a first-ballot nomination has passed. Now the campaign enters a new phase, as Trump’s rivals try to deny him a majority of pledged delegates going into the convention. Simulating the remaining contests based on current polling data, my model picks up an unexpected wrinkle: Trump’s strongest position comes if he loses the primary in Ohio on Tuesday.

(Excerpt) Read more at prospect.org ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: New York; US: Ohio; US: Texas
KEYWORDS: 2016election; cruz; election2016; johnkasich; kasich; newyork; oh2016; ohio; ohioprimary; tedcruz; texas; trump; trump2016
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To: Wyrd bið ful aræd

Thanks.


21 posted on 03/15/2016 6:50:50 PM PDT by mountn man (The Pleasure You Get From Life, Is Equal To The Attitude You Put Into It)
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To: MarMema
It was sickening. I respected that guy some 20 years ago.

Is he the guy to fight the fascist left? He doesn't even believe it exists. Sad sack.

22 posted on 03/15/2016 6:52:47 PM PDT by Mensius
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To: WilliamIII

um.. no, it doesn’t

it was a DICK move on the part of Kasich, to keep Trump from winning... Kasich will win NO OTHER states


23 posted on 03/15/2016 6:53:14 PM PDT by Mr. K (Trump/Cruz 2016)
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To: WilliamIII

“Trump’s strongest position comes if he loses the primary in Ohio on Tuesday.”

I don’t know about that, because a clean sweep tonight would have sealed the deal.

However, I can see the point of the author as evidenced by Cruz and Kasich splitting in IL and Trump winning easily.


24 posted on 03/15/2016 6:53:37 PM PDT by JPJones
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To: WilliamIII

Mofopolitics said this.

Trump just has to win winner takes most states.


25 posted on 03/15/2016 6:54:59 PM PDT by ObamahatesPACoal (Mofopolitics: Trump probably gets 1,237 even w/out OH)
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To: JoSixChip
"Time for cruz to get out, he has no path to victory. This race is between kasich and Trump."

Hate on Cruz all you want, but with Rubio leaving the race, this is already a very good night for Cruz. He will most likely be right behind Trump in delegates going into the convention, and is more likely than Trump to retain delegate loyalty after the first ballot. If Trump doesn't get 1237 before the convention, then we'll learn if Donald is the great negotiator he says he is.

As for Kasich, before today he's been above 15% in only 3 states. And he's added more single-digit flops tonight. HE is the one with no path to victory who should get out of the race.

26 posted on 03/15/2016 6:55:14 PM PDT by Stat Man
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To: dp0622

The establishment is also worried about whether 1/3, 1/2 or 1 million Trump supporters will be in Cleveland in July.

Cruz can’t bring those numbers of people in.


27 posted on 03/15/2016 6:55:53 PM PDT by ObamahatesPACoal (Mofopolitics: Trump probably gets 1,237 even w/out OH)
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To: freedomjusticeruleoflaw

Agreed ...Trump is for free trade but wants it to be fair ..Levin keeps lying about Trump, comparing Trump to Hoover ... I think Levin’s big motivation is neo-con interventionism leading to conflict with Russia and Iran


28 posted on 03/15/2016 6:57:33 PM PDT by Neu Pragmatist (The Bushbots are now backing Cruz . Cruz is GOPe all the way ..any questions ?)
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29 posted on 03/15/2016 6:58:13 PM PDT by DoughtyOne (Facing Trump nomination inevitability, folks are now openly trying to help Hillary destroy him.)
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To: WilliamIII
"Losing improves one's chances of winning?

Anyone who believes that . . . . . . But then I am old school, where it is was written in religious scripture "Winning isn't everything . . . . . . . . . . . . it's the only thing!

I propose settling any Islamic settlers in Kaisch backyard. They can start their jihad with him.

30 posted on 03/15/2016 6:58:38 PM PDT by saywhatagain
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To: Stat Man
Hate on Cruz all you want, but with Rubio leaving the race, this is already a very good night for Cruz.

You just keep barking at the moon. cruz wins Utah and maybe one other. Other then that he his just the gopE spoiler to try and stop Trump. There is no realistic path where cruz beats Trump.
31 posted on 03/15/2016 7:01:54 PM PDT by JoSixChip (Ted Cruz (R-Goldman Sachs) - He's creepy and he's kooky, mysterious and spooky)
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To: JPJones
"I don’t know about that, because a clean sweep tonight would have sealed the deal."

No, that was a myth advocated by Bill O'Reilly.

A Trump sweep of Ohio and Florida would have hurt Trump because polls show that with Rubio and Kasich both out of the race Cruz gets their votes about 3-1 vs. Trump.

I've modeled the scenarios. It was kind of win-win for Trump going in... either he gets the delegates or he keeps the crowded field that helps him down the line.

But down the line was more important (more delegates up for grab) than just tonight. So Rubio dropping out hurts Trump more than the 99 Florida delegates help Trump, and conversely Kasich winning Ohio helps Trump more than losing those 66 delegates hurt him.

What Trump really needed to nearly "clinch" the 1237 was to win Florida but have Rubio stay in the race even though he lost. Rubio claimed he was going to do this, but fortunately for Cruz fans and unfortunately for Trump fans, Rubio dropped out.

32 posted on 03/15/2016 7:02:50 PM PDT by Stat Man
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To: Stat Man
If the 2nd place guy walks away with the Republican nomination, we deserve Hillary.

Trump supporters WILL stay home.

33 posted on 03/15/2016 7:05:59 PM PDT by The Iceman Cometh (The Anointed King Says I'm Not Smart Enough To Vote For Him)
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To: Stat Man

LOL!


34 posted on 03/15/2016 7:08:27 PM PDT by Kirkwood (Zombie Hunter)
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To: The Iceman Cometh

At that point it’s a disaster.
Probably talking Dem control of WH, SCOTUS, and Congress for decades.
We can forget about politics on FR and just discuss guns, prepping, and sports.


35 posted on 03/15/2016 7:09:12 PM PDT by nascarnation (RIP Scalia. Godspeed)
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To: WilliamIII

Losing to win is just plain stupid, no matter what you might think


36 posted on 03/15/2016 7:15:18 PM PDT by doldrumsforgop
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To: JoSixChip
We'll see.

With Rubio out of the race, Cruz stands a very good chance at winning: Utah, Arizona, Indiana, South Dakota, Montana and New Mexico.

Trump remains favored in: New York, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and New Jersey.

But the following states now become tossups: Wisconsin (Cruz has the edge), Colorado (total tossup), Delaware (Trump edge), Connecticut (Trump edge), Maryland (Trump edge), Oregon (Cruz edge), Washington (Cruz edge), and California (Cruz edge).

Let's check back later to see who's predictions turn out closer to reality, yours or mine.

37 posted on 03/15/2016 7:16:36 PM PDT by Stat Man
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To: Stat Man

“What Trump really needed to nearly “clinch” the 1237 was to win Florida but have Rubio stay in the race even though he lost. Rubio claimed he was going to do this, but fortunately for Cruz fans and unfortunately for Trump fans, Rubio dropped out. “

Did you account for Rubio voters going to Kasich?

So in CA Cruz and Kasich split and Trump wins?

Perhaps


38 posted on 03/15/2016 7:23:53 PM PDT by JPJones
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To: Neu Pragmatist

You are completely delusional. I don’t see Cruz calling Ryan so they can start planning their “arts of the deal.” And it seems you are calling into question Levin’S conservative credentials....I assume you’re ok with Trump’s?


39 posted on 03/15/2016 7:27:57 PM PDT by mykroar ("Never believe anything until it has been officially denied." - Otto von Bismarck)
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To: The Iceman Cometh

“If the 2nd place guy walks away with the Republican nomination, we deserve Hillary.
Trump supporters WILL stay home. “

Dems are counting on that.

That’s why Trump must be the nominee.


40 posted on 03/15/2016 7:29:00 PM PDT by JPJones
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