“What Trump really needed to nearly “clinch” the 1237 was to win Florida but have Rubio stay in the race even though he lost. Rubio claimed he was going to do this, but fortunately for Cruz fans and unfortunately for Trump fans, Rubio dropped out. “
Did you account for Rubio voters going to Kasich?
So in CA Cruz and Kasich split and Trump wins?
Perhaps
Yes. Based on what poll evidence I could find, I assumed that Trump would gain 1 of 7 Rubio voters, and that Cruz and Kasich would gain 3 of 7 each. I could be off in those assumptions by a little, but frankly, in most states Kasich doesn't have enough support that votes to him make any difference. It's the Trump/Cruz ratio that matters, and it's hard to imagine there were all that many Rubio voters left whose second choice was Trump.
So in CA Cruz and Kasich split and Trump wins?
No. Because Trump and Cruz were/are already neck and neck in California with Kasich way behind them. So the Rubio votes push Cruz ahead of Trump, but Kasich remains a distant third. California is a closed primary which helps Cruz, and winner-take-all by congressional district, which makes a big delegate gain in the state tough for either candidate in a close race.
Next week will be interesting to watch. I believe Cruz has a good chance of winning 98 delegates to none for Trump in Utah and Arizona.