Posted on 02/01/2016 2:27:33 PM PST by GilGil
FiveThirtyEight provides two projections for each race: A "polls-only" model that is based solely on public polling within a particular state, and a "polls-plus" model that additionally factors in national polling and endorsements from sitting governors and members of Congress.
Looking at the Monday-night Iowa caucuses, the two models are more or less in agreement about each party's favorites: businessman Donald Trump and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
In the Republican race, the polls-plus model gives Trump a 46% chance of winning, compared with 39% for Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, 14% for Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, and 1% for retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson.
The polls-only model has the same order for the top four candidates but with slightly better odds for the front-runner: Trump is forecast to have a 54% chance of winning, compared with 33% for Cruz, 11% for Rubio, and 1% for Carson.
(Excerpt) Read more at finance.yahoo.com ...
I don’t see trump voters being intimidated, but they can be coerced/tricked because the Trump ground game isn’t solid. Without a precinct leader at each place they may get bamboozled. If that does happen then that is Trump’s fault because he had plenty of time to train and get people as leaders of each place.
If the young first time caucus goers are anything like the sanders bunch it will be easy to fool them.
This is the ANTI-Establishment election.
Somebody tried that crap on me, they better pray I’m in a good mood - so I’ll blacken only one of their eyes, instead of both.
And John Sununu picks his nose, while scratching his butt.
If it is anything like regular primaries we should get some results 3 hours after close.
Predict It has Trump at 66%
I seriously doubt that will happen. There would be fist fights if Trump supporters were coerced. If someone tried to coerce Trump what would Trump do? His supporters are no different.
Hey! I love cheese. You touch my cheese and I’m drawing blood.
Look out. There will be anti-Trump brain splatter all over the walls.
lol, Nate Silver. How many times has that smarmy little homo buries Trump already?
“I average out all the polls and make a prediction based on the results...clearly I’m a genius!”
Nuff said
Do you think the mass of voters who go out in the cold to caucus are that easily manipulated? Or is this you preparing an excuse for loss.
you’re frowning over ‘splody heads?
Go Trump. Make America Great Again.
Yeah, they did good throwing out protesters at the rallies
Huh? Who am I preparing for a loss?
Saw a video of the Apostle Cruz this morning preaching to the audience. He did the best impersonation of Elmer Gantry I’ve ever seen. He dropped down to his knees, started waving his hands like he was having an epileptic seizure, and asked for the Holy Spirit to come “into the body of Christ” and allow him to win the Iowa caucus.
The power of Cruz compels you!
So essentially, there are large numbers of Democrats in Iowa who will leave their comfy homes on a cold February night to caucus in favor of a career criminal who has committed espionage against the US while serving as the country’s chief diplomat, or a red diaper baby communist?
This is all you need to know about the Democrats’ base.
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