Free Republic

Republicans held the Senate! Democrats took the House but by a narrower margin! Did I just embarrass myself? I write this Election Day morning, before most polling places even opened. I don't know the actual results, of course. But I'll pretend I do because I trust the betting odds. As of Tuesday morning, ElectionBettingOdds.com, a site I co-founded, says Republicans have an 84 percent chance to hold the Senate and Democrats a 71 percent chance to retake the House. Why trust a bunch of gamblers? Because they have the best track record! Polls have flaws. Some people lie to pollsters...

FiveThirtyEight provides two projections for each race: A "polls-only" model that is based solely on public polling within a particular state, and a "polls-plus" model that additionally factors in national polling and endorsements from sitting governors and members of Congress. Looking at the Monday-night Iowa caucuses, the two models are more or less in agreement about each party's favorites: businessman Donald Trump and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. In the Republican race, the polls-plus model gives Trump a 46% chance of winning, compared with 39% for Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, 14% for Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, and...