Free Republic

The FBI seized Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan’s phone and electronics early Wednesday morning — just a week after the election-betting platform successfully predicted President-elect Donald Trump’s win, The Post has learned. The 26-year-old entrepreneur was woken up at 6:00 a.m. in his Soho home by law US enforcement officers who demanded his phone and electronics, a source close to the matter told The Post. It’s “grand political theater at its worst,” the source told The Post. “They could have asked his lawyer for any of these things. Instead, they staged a so-called raid so they can leak it to the...

Republicans held the Senate! Democrats took the House but by a narrower margin! Did I just embarrass myself? I write this Election Day morning, before most polling places even opened. I don't know the actual results, of course. But I'll pretend I do because I trust the betting odds. As of Tuesday morning, ElectionBettingOdds.com, a site I co-founded, says Republicans have an 84 percent chance to hold the Senate and Democrats a 71 percent chance to retake the House. Why trust a bunch of gamblers? Because they have the best track record! Polls have flaws. Some people lie to pollsters...

FiveThirtyEight provides two projections for each race: A "polls-only" model that is based solely on public polling within a particular state, and a "polls-plus" model that additionally factors in national polling and endorsements from sitting governors and members of Congress. Looking at the Monday-night Iowa caucuses, the two models are more or less in agreement about each party's favorites: businessman Donald Trump and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. In the Republican race, the polls-plus model gives Trump a 46% chance of winning, compared with 39% for Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, 14% for Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, and...