NATE SILVER: Here's who's favored to win the Iowa caucuses (Odds of winning: Trump 54%-Cruz 33%)

Yahoo.com ^ | 2/1/2016 | Andy Kiersz

[GilGil]

FiveThirtyEight provides two projections for each race: A "polls-only" model that is based solely on public polling within a particular state, and a "polls-plus" model that additionally factors in national polling and endorsements from sitting governors and members of Congress.

Looking at the Monday-night Iowa caucuses, the two models are more or less in agreement about each party's favorites: businessman Donald Trump and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

In the Republican race, the polls-plus model gives Trump a 46% chance of winning, compared with 39% for Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, 14% for Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, and 1% for retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson.

The polls-only model has the same order for the top four candidates but with slightly better odds for the front-runner: Trump is forecast to have a 54% chance of winning, compared with 33% for Cruz, 11% for Rubio, and 1% for Carson.

[GilGil]

This should make heads explode.

[nopardons]

Their heads already have.

Just look at the threads, here, today. :-(

[Georgia Girl 2]

From Nate’s lips to God’s ears. :-)

[Sybeck1]

Bernie’s people will think it was stolen

[for-q-clinton]

So if Trump or Hillary don’t win then it’s an upset.

[scooby321]

Only Fox News has Marco Rubio surging

[for-q-clinton]

One thing that is hard to predict is that you can change your vote during the caucus. So if they see Cruz or Trump is going to win their local precinct...the other team can convince the losers to rally behind their guy to prevent personX from winning.

So if Cruz is winning and the GOPe is like No WAY can we let him win...let’s back Trump to give it to him. Or if Trump is winning they may say if we don’t slow down Trump now we can’t win...so let’s all back Cruz.

[GilGil]

If you get a flat tire, is it an upset or do you just fix it?

If Trump and Hillary do not win then they simply move on and sharpen their game.

[MNJohnnie]

Of course missing from all this is it all based on polling.

[DoughtyOne]

Please help make FR's voice louder.

Truth, Justice, and the American Way.

click the bottom graphic and support them

[nascarnation]

As John Sununu said

Iowa picks corn
New Hampshire picks presidents

[for-q-clinton]

Huh?

If you get a flat tire, is it an upset or do you just fix it?

Is this one of those jokes like "If a flying saucer lands in your backyard, how many pancakes does it take to cover your doghouse? Answer: Fish don't eat ice cream"

[for-q-clinton]

How does someone undo the result of an election? You can’t “fix” the Iowa result once it’s over (unless you’re a democrat).

[GOPJ]

Only Fox News has Marco Rubio surging...

LOL - in their dreams...

[GeaugaRepublican]

Thats it. I’m going home early!

[xzins]

The polls are beyond importance now.

Could know in 6 hours

[SamAdams76]

That's the part I don't understand. So you make up your mind on who to vote for and then in the caucus place, you are strong-armed and bullied into voting for somebody else? This is not the first time I've hear this. In fact, some are stating that Trump will get close to zero votes tonight because all the first-time voters will be intimidated by the caucus regulars who will pounce upon them as soon as they walk in.

In only a few hours, we'll know for sure.

[kingu]

And these same methodologies check out vs the last Iowa caucus? Rarely see such verification on theories.

[Mariner]

"Just look at the threads, here, today"

It's a full-on foaming at the mouth meltdown.

Sheesh. You'd think somebody stole their cheese.

[WTFOVR]

BOOM-BOOM! Out go the lights!