Posted on 12/15/2015 9:51:08 AM PST by Red Steel
[Full title] Trump Edges Cruz in Iowa; His Supporters Think Japanese Internment Was Good; Clinton Still Well Ahead of Sanders In State
PPP’s newest Iowa poll finds Donald Trump and Ted Cruz at the top of the heap with 28% and 25% respectively. Marco Rubio at 14% and Ben Carson at 10% are also in double digits with Jeb Bush at 7% the only other candidate who clears even 3%. Chris Christie, Carly Fiorina, and Mike Huckabee all hit that level with John Kasich and Rand Paul each getting 2%, Lindsey Graham and Rick Santorum each getting 1%, and Jim Gilmore and George Pataki both having literally no support.
Trump, Cruz, Rubio, and Bush have all seen varying increases in their support in the six weeks since we last polled Iowa. Cruz obviously has the most momentum, picking up 11 points from his 14% standing in early November. Trump has gained 6 points, Rubio 4 points, and Bush 2 points.
As we’ve been finding across the country for the last month Carson has seen the most serious downward arc in his support, dropping 11 points from his previous 21% standing. Huckabee’s dropped 3 points and Fiorina by 2 points as well.
There are a lot of divisions between where Cruz and Trump’s support is coming from. Among voters whose biggest concern is having a candidate who’s conservative on the issues Cruz leads with 33% to 26% for Trump and 15% for Carson. But with voters whose biggest concern is being able to beat a Democrat in the general election, Trump wins out with 31% to 20% each for Cruz and Rubio. Cruz leads Trump 31/30 with men, but Trump more than makes up for that with a 26/17 lead among women. Cruz has a strong advantage with ‘very conservative’ voters at 37% to 25% for Trump and 14% for Carson but Trump leads based on his strength with moderates, with whom gets 42% to 14% each for Rubio and Bush.
It’s ironic that Trump leads with moderates, because the views of his supporters wouldn’t be considered moderate by most standards:
-78% support Trump’s call to bans Muslims from entering the United States, to only 13% who oppose it. Overall 54% of Republicans support him on that to 28% who are opposed. Supporters of Cruz (62/20) and Carson (54/25) also favor a Muslim ban while backers of Rubio (28/48) and Bush (28/49) are opposed.
-65% of Trump voters think thousands of Arabs in New Jersey cheered the collapse of the World Trade Center, to only 11% who don’t think that happened. Overall 43% of Republicans think that event occurred to 29% who don’t. Supporters of Carson (44/10) and Cruz (45/26) agree with Trump’s that it happened while those of Rubio (24/47) and Bush (12/62) say it didn’t.
-59% of Trump voters support a national database of Muslims, to 18% who are opposed. Republicans as a whole are evenly divided on that issue, 40/40. Carson supporters (42/38) join with Trump’s in wanting a Muslim database but those of Cruz (38/42), Rubio (32/48), and Bush (19/62) are all against it.
-45% of Trump voters want to shut down the mosques in the United States, to only 23% who are opposed to doing that. Overall just 27% of Republicans support that to 45% who are opposed though. Supporters of all the other major GOP candidates are opposed to shutting down mosques- it’s 32/48 with Carson backers, 25/44 with those of Cruz, 9/66 with Rubio voters, and 9/69 with Bush’s.
-Finally as long as we were at it we decided we’d ask people if they thought Japanese internment had been a good idea. Among Trump voters 48% say they support the use of internment during World War II, to only 21% who say they oppose it. Overall just 29% of Republicans support that to 39% opposed, and supporters of all the other candidates are against it- 29/33 with Cruz voters, 23/54 with Rubio’s, 12/48 with Carson’s, and 13/56 with Bush’s.
Trump’s positions aren’t hurting him for now but if he ever does falter Cruz is very well positioned to benefit. Besides his overall second place position Cruz is the most broadly popular of the candidates in Iowa, with a 68/20 favorability rating. He’s also the most frequent second choice of Iowa voters at 19% to 12% each for Carson and Rubio, and 11% for Trump. When you combine first and second choices Cruz leads with 44% to 39% for Trump, 26% for Rubio, and 22% for Carson. Cruz is specifically by far and away the second choice of Trump voters at 36% to 14% for Carson with no one else hitting double digits. Quick notes on some other hopefuls:
-Bush has the highest negatives of any of the candidates with 47% seeing him unfavorably to only 35% who have a positive view. He continues to particularly have a credibility issue on the right- with ‘very conservative’ voters his favorability is 24/61 and just 2% of voters within that group favor him for the nomination.
-What we’re continuing to find with Rubio right now is that he’s sort of in a holding pattern. When we polled Iowa last month he was in 4th place with a 60/20 favorability rating. Now thanks to the collapse of Carson he’s in 3rd place with a nearly identical 59/22 favorability. He’s not getting much momentum but he’s at least not falling apart either.
-Carson’s not just losing out on people saying he’s their first choice- he’s had a general decline in his image with GOP voters. Last month he had a +61 (74/13) favorability, that’s now dropped to +40 at 63/23. His combined first and second choice support has dropped from 40% down to 22%.
-John Kasich’s just really not making an impact. A plurality of GOP voters- 41%- don’t even have an opinion about him one way or the other. Among voters who do have one it’s quite negative with only 22% seeing him favorably to 37% with a negative view.
-Mike Huckabee on the other hand is very popular with the Republican base. 64% see him favorably to just 21% with a negative view, making him the most broadly liked hopeful other than Cruz. That goodwill just isn’t translating into support for the nomination for him though.
On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton continues to be the clear favorite in Iowa. She’s at 52% to 34% for Bernie Sanders and 7% for Martin O’Malley. Sanders leads 47/40 with younger voters, but that’s not enough to make up for Clinton holding a 64/20 advantage with seniors. She leads by pretty similar margins of 19 points with liberals at 56/37 and 22 points with moderates at 52/30. And she also has comparable leads with both women (21 points at 55/34) and men (15 points at 49/34). Clinton’s favorability rating is 73/19 while Sanders’ comes in at 65/23.
Full results here
Contrary to the conventional wisdom, it’s not over in Iowa. Me thinks Trump has a shot.
Everything is OK in war and love.
“It was necessary.”
So think many who would confiscate your guns, silence you (permanently) from denying “climate change”, etc. That’s not hyperbole, that’s what a large and growing number of voters contend: incarcerating, and even killing, you is acceptable means toward their sociopolitical ends.
President Santorum agrees with you.
And so does president Huckabee.
Correct.
That’s the message we should be getting out: it’s the LEFT who, currently _and_ historically, wants to incarcerate/kill those who they suspect of sociopolitical doubleplusungoodcrimethink.
If these are real numbers, people calling themselves Republican are a less conservative than I thought.
Maybe the Uniparty is a reflection of reality?
War or more specifically WINNING a war requires doing things that would be inappropriate at other times.
But we dont seem interested in WINNING wars anymore, thus we now lose them all.
His Supporters Think Japanese Internment Was GoodIt might not have been "good" but, like temporarily restricting Muslims/Islamists it's necessary.
I’m still trying to figure out how temporarily banning immigration has anything in common with the internment of US citizens during WWII.
I’m a Trump supporter and I say, INTERN ‘EM ALL!!!
I didn’t know it was so bad to be an intern...
“His supporters think Japanese internment was good.”
Maybe they are more thoughtful than modern progressives. Of course internment was not good. However, things could have been worse. Modern progressives, only semi-literate in most cases and almost inevitably not well-educated, probably have no idea how bad it was for German-Americans during WWI. Social shunning just scratched the surface. Beatings and other acts of violence were also common. I knew elderly Germans in the Midwest in 1960 who were still in shock over how they were treated in WWI because they spoke English with a heavy German accent and had German names. Think how much worse it would have been for Japanese, who differed in appearance, too.
Suppose Roosevelt, the sainted progressive of his day, had not interned the Japanese. Remember that Americans of the early 1940s were violent, racist, bigots by today’s standards. Progressives always point this out, but then fail to understand its potential consequences.
Suppose there had been a “terror attack” by a Japanese or Japanese-American in 1942 like the one that just occurred in San Bernadino, even against a military target. How many innocent Japanese and Japanese-Americans would have been killed in the massive race riots that would almost certainly have followed?
Internment, especially internment that was carried out as unjustly as the one under Roosevelt, is bad, no doubt about it. But it could have been much, much worse. And by the way, Progressives, prison camps are just one aspect of the totalitarian government you long for so greatly. So get used to them.
FDR was a racist just like his mentor Woodrow Wilson. Can anybody name one thing that FDR did to help the black people in America? FDR could have integrated the armed forces. FDR could have issued an order and any white soldiers who did not obey the order would have been punished. It was the redneck from a Confederate family, Truman, who integrated the armed forces. Sure, Truman used the “N” word, but actions speak louder than words.
Internment might have saved 1,000 of lives.
Heck, for all we know internment might have help us win the war. Who's to say what damage a enemy sympathizer might have done. Told about D day? Told about the A bomb? or a thousand other things.
Over twelve million people in the U.S. were either born in Germany or had one or both parents born in Germany at the time World War II broke out. Only 11,500 were interned, and vast majority of those were German nationals. Comparing what Germans went through to what Japanese-Americans went through is ridiculous.
A large percentage of voters consider the NRA a terrorist organization responsible for the deaths of thousands annually, and consider “climate deniers” responsible for the looming extinction of humanity and most other species - both pretty much on par with the “war” you’re referring to - and they’re calling for your execution if not silence. You’d object thereto based on “natural rights” and “facts”.
I’m very concerned that, while I agree about the basic problem, too many “right wing” types are abandoning their conservative principles to destroy a poorly-defined “them”.
So Trump’s pandering on ethanol was for a purpose.
Those who would trade liberty for security deserve neither and will lose both.
Have you ever heard of the Black Dragon fraternity? It was a social group of Japanese ex-pats associated with the Japanese military.
What happened in the Philippines when the Japanese military invaded those islands greatly influenced what happened later in the USA. Members of Black Dragon, mainly shopkeepers and small businessmen, closed up their shops, changed into Japanese Army uniforms and took out their hidden rifles. Then they went about murdering their neighbors, conducting sabotage of infrastructure, and attacking the rear and flanks of the Philippine defenders. They facilitated the Japanese takeover of the Philippine Islands.
The US government, after the attack on Pearl Harbor, was left with a difficult decision. The seething resentment and anger of the general population within the 48 continental states was palpable. There existed Black Dragon fraternities within ethnic Japanese communities, but the government was more concerned with the reactions by the general population to any efforts made by Black Dragon members. The last thing the government wanted was a rampaging campaign of elimination against Asians.
Internment and theft of possessions was the least of it.
Internment of German Americans - Wikipedia, the free ...
https://en.wikipedia.org/.../Internment_of_German_Americans
Wikipedia
Jump to World War II - In the 1940 US census, some 1,237,000 persons identified as being ... becoming naturalized United States citizens and many did so. The large number of German Americans of recent connection to Germany, and their ... A total of 11,507 people of German ancestry were interned during the war.
1,237,000 not 12 million.
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