Posted on 12/15/2015 9:51:08 AM PST by Red Steel
[Full title] Trump Edges Cruz in Iowa; His Supporters Think Japanese Internment Was Good; Clinton Still Well Ahead of Sanders In State
PPP’s newest Iowa poll finds Donald Trump and Ted Cruz at the top of the heap with 28% and 25% respectively. Marco Rubio at 14% and Ben Carson at 10% are also in double digits with Jeb Bush at 7% the only other candidate who clears even 3%. Chris Christie, Carly Fiorina, and Mike Huckabee all hit that level with John Kasich and Rand Paul each getting 2%, Lindsey Graham and Rick Santorum each getting 1%, and Jim Gilmore and George Pataki both having literally no support.
Trump, Cruz, Rubio, and Bush have all seen varying increases in their support in the six weeks since we last polled Iowa. Cruz obviously has the most momentum, picking up 11 points from his 14% standing in early November. Trump has gained 6 points, Rubio 4 points, and Bush 2 points.
As we’ve been finding across the country for the last month Carson has seen the most serious downward arc in his support, dropping 11 points from his previous 21% standing. Huckabee’s dropped 3 points and Fiorina by 2 points as well.
There are a lot of divisions between where Cruz and Trump’s support is coming from. Among voters whose biggest concern is having a candidate who’s conservative on the issues Cruz leads with 33% to 26% for Trump and 15% for Carson. But with voters whose biggest concern is being able to beat a Democrat in the general election, Trump wins out with 31% to 20% each for Cruz and Rubio. Cruz leads Trump 31/30 with men, but Trump more than makes up for that with a 26/17 lead among women. Cruz has a strong advantage with ‘very conservative’ voters at 37% to 25% for Trump and 14% for Carson but Trump leads based on his strength with moderates, with whom gets 42% to 14% each for Rubio and Bush.
It’s ironic that Trump leads with moderates, because the views of his supporters wouldn’t be considered moderate by most standards:
-78% support Trump’s call to bans Muslims from entering the United States, to only 13% who oppose it. Overall 54% of Republicans support him on that to 28% who are opposed. Supporters of Cruz (62/20) and Carson (54/25) also favor a Muslim ban while backers of Rubio (28/48) and Bush (28/49) are opposed.
-65% of Trump voters think thousands of Arabs in New Jersey cheered the collapse of the World Trade Center, to only 11% who don’t think that happened. Overall 43% of Republicans think that event occurred to 29% who don’t. Supporters of Carson (44/10) and Cruz (45/26) agree with Trump’s that it happened while those of Rubio (24/47) and Bush (12/62) say it didn’t.
-59% of Trump voters support a national database of Muslims, to 18% who are opposed. Republicans as a whole are evenly divided on that issue, 40/40. Carson supporters (42/38) join with Trump’s in wanting a Muslim database but those of Cruz (38/42), Rubio (32/48), and Bush (19/62) are all against it.
-45% of Trump voters want to shut down the mosques in the United States, to only 23% who are opposed to doing that. Overall just 27% of Republicans support that to 45% who are opposed though. Supporters of all the other major GOP candidates are opposed to shutting down mosques- it’s 32/48 with Carson backers, 25/44 with those of Cruz, 9/66 with Rubio voters, and 9/69 with Bush’s.
-Finally as long as we were at it we decided we’d ask people if they thought Japanese internment had been a good idea. Among Trump voters 48% say they support the use of internment during World War II, to only 21% who say they oppose it. Overall just 29% of Republicans support that to 39% opposed, and supporters of all the other candidates are against it- 29/33 with Cruz voters, 23/54 with Rubio’s, 12/48 with Carson’s, and 13/56 with Bush’s.
Trump’s positions aren’t hurting him for now but if he ever does falter Cruz is very well positioned to benefit. Besides his overall second place position Cruz is the most broadly popular of the candidates in Iowa, with a 68/20 favorability rating. He’s also the most frequent second choice of Iowa voters at 19% to 12% each for Carson and Rubio, and 11% for Trump. When you combine first and second choices Cruz leads with 44% to 39% for Trump, 26% for Rubio, and 22% for Carson. Cruz is specifically by far and away the second choice of Trump voters at 36% to 14% for Carson with no one else hitting double digits. Quick notes on some other hopefuls:
-Bush has the highest negatives of any of the candidates with 47% seeing him unfavorably to only 35% who have a positive view. He continues to particularly have a credibility issue on the right- with ‘very conservative’ voters his favorability is 24/61 and just 2% of voters within that group favor him for the nomination.
-What we’re continuing to find with Rubio right now is that he’s sort of in a holding pattern. When we polled Iowa last month he was in 4th place with a 60/20 favorability rating. Now thanks to the collapse of Carson he’s in 3rd place with a nearly identical 59/22 favorability. He’s not getting much momentum but he’s at least not falling apart either.
-Carson’s not just losing out on people saying he’s their first choice- he’s had a general decline in his image with GOP voters. Last month he had a +61 (74/13) favorability, that’s now dropped to +40 at 63/23. His combined first and second choice support has dropped from 40% down to 22%.
-John Kasich’s just really not making an impact. A plurality of GOP voters- 41%- don’t even have an opinion about him one way or the other. Among voters who do have one it’s quite negative with only 22% seeing him favorably to 37% with a negative view.
-Mike Huckabee on the other hand is very popular with the Republican base. 64% see him favorably to just 21% with a negative view, making him the most broadly liked hopeful other than Cruz. That goodwill just isn’t translating into support for the nomination for him though.
On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton continues to be the clear favorite in Iowa. She’s at 52% to 34% for Bernie Sanders and 7% for Martin O’Malley. Sanders leads 47/40 with younger voters, but that’s not enough to make up for Clinton holding a 64/20 advantage with seniors. She leads by pretty similar margins of 19 points with liberals at 56/37 and 22 points with moderates at 52/30. And she also has comparable leads with both women (21 points at 55/34) and men (15 points at 49/34). Clinton’s favorability rating is 73/19 while Sanders’ comes in at 65/23.
Full results here
Of course. I happen to have Japanese gardeners in my back yard.
They do a great job. A lot better than the gnomes. I've never seen any of those guys lift a finger.
People ask me, "how do you know you have Japanese gardeners in your back yard?" "Have you seen them?"
I have to honestly answer "no".
"So why do you think they are there..?", they ask.
"Simple" I say, "it's the banzai trees, and the little cars".
(the Jockey only looks sorta' partway Japanese. I've been told he's no relation) “The internment was wrong. Very wrong.”
Good thing Trump doesn’t have a funny looking mustache.
Rush Reveals Trump’s Secret, Private Side
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3373086/posts?page=3970#3970
I love that little barb. It must really chap their ass :)
Here is the nitty gritty of why the President has so much leeway in immigration:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/chat/2636478/posts?page=434#434
[If you think that any president’s attorney general can’t find and explain 8 USC 1182, you really have low expectations.]
~~~~~~~~~~
This needs EMPHASIS!
[OBAMA] Regime Turns Away Christian Refugees - The Rush Limbaugh Show
http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2015/12/08/regime_turns_away_christian_refugees
~~~~~~
Just 0.4 Percent of Syrian Refugees Admitted to U.S. Since Paris Attacks Are Christian
Even if Cruz ends up as Number 2, that would keep him in second place.
What really impresses me is that Cruz handicapped himself in Iowa by going against Big Corn corporate welfare and ehtanol forced down every gas tank.
I agree, no president should bypass congress.
Yes, we should concentrate of what he meant and not what he said. He's no different than any other politician.
Cruz or lose. America.
Amen.
But for Trump's scheme to work you would have to vet every person from every country. Everyone coming in would require a visa, regardless of the country they came from. Would you like to go through that when you traveled abroad? I wouldn't.
Simple, huh? OK so President Trump issues an order that not a single Muslim can enter the country. How does he enforce it?
Saying is one thing. Doing is another. In this case Trump can say but has absolutely no idea how to do.
Yes, we should base our national security on what foreigners want.
My concern, since we are talking respectfully and exchanging ideas - thank you for that, is that a Syrian that moved to France and just got citizenship could travel here easily. Obviously France has vetting problems. As do many European countries. So our safety will depend on how good a job other countries do. That makes me nervous.
And then there’s that passport machine ISIS stole. That makes me even more nervous.
There’s too many ways around it.
We have over 60 million visitors to the U.S. each year. To vet each and every one of them as you suggest would frankly be impossible.
We have over 60 million visitors to the U.S. each year. To vet each and every one of them as you suggest would frankly be impossible.
“So think many who would confiscate your guns, silence you (permanently) from denying “climate changeâ€, etc. That’s not hyperbole, that’s what a large and growing number of voters contend: incarcerating, and even killing, you is acceptable means toward their sociopolitical ends.”
I don’t disagree with you. But lets consider Japanese internment. After Pearl Harbor, and the early war in the Pacific, what do you think the fate of Japanese Americans would have been?
It would not have been good. There WERE spies among them, I don’t think that is argued. The strategy of internment, while a crude instrument, saved Japanese-American lives too.
When our government coddles the enemy amongst us, people will not sit idly by forever.
Now to your point about political “enemies” - if we get to that point, it will be a different game. There is one thing finding an expedient, if not wholly unconstitutional, solution during actual wartime. It is different when the “war” is political and domestic. That would precipitate a civil war - as well it should.
That doesn’t mean leftist/environmentalists won’t try - as you aptly point out.
I think it's even greater than that. The terrorists in Paris were born in France and Belgium. The terrorists at Fort Hood and San Bernardino were born in the U.S. We're talking home-grown terrorism and not just some schlub trying to sneak in from Syria. Trying to prevent each and every Muslim from entering the U.S. is impossible, and Trump is a fool if he honestly thinks he can do it. The only way to combat Islamic terrorism in the U.S. is through police work and intelligence work. But none of the candidate talk about prompting improvements in those areas. I wonder why?
The Americans of Japanese descent were an “easy” target because they looked and sounded different.
The 442nd Regiment Combat Team (p/o 92nd Infantry Division) was composed almost ENTIRELY of Americans of Japanese descent (Nisei - born in the United States to immigrant parents); it became the most highly decorated regiment in the US Army during the Italian campaign. They fought like hell, served this country well, honorably, and as true as anyone who considers himself American would.
Right or wrong, it happened. We learn from it. We know who the enemy is, and we use every means available to separate the bad from the good and innocent. That should have been done back then as well, but we can’t change what happened then. We can, however, NOT make the same mistakes. This enemy is different, in that they actively hide in the civilian population and plan strikes at civilians; but there is always a way to find the bad guys, if it’s looked for.
One of our highest ranking generals, Gen John Abizaid, is of Lebanese descent; he commanded the Iraq - Afghanistan theater of operations (CENTCOM) after Gen Franks. By FDR’s standards, Abizaid would have been “interned” because he’s “middle eastern”.
“Don’t “burn the village to save it†is a good phrase; I’d refine it to “Don’t use a shotgun where a precision rifle shot is needed.
The Japanese were rounded up for two reasons in WWII. DO NOT LET HISTORY BE CHANGED.
1) the Japanese Government requested it as they wanted their citizens returned. This was a way to protect their citizens.
2) We needed something to trade to get our citizens back from Japan. The early days of the war held a plan for citizen exchange.
“The only way to combat Islamic terrorism in the U.S. is through police work and intelligence work. But none of the candidate talk about prompting improvements in those areas. I wonder why?”
Good point. They all focus on threats external to the country, even though we have a recent example of a citizen terrorist.
Although Trump and Carson did talk of investigating mosques, which would involve local and perhaps federal law enforcement.
Are you completely insane or just when Trump is involved?
How do you enforce any law?
Let's concentrate on how he would enforce this one. How will President Trump prevent any Muslims from entering the country?
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