Santorum Wins Iowa!
Huckabee Wins Iowa's Republican Caucuses
Posted on 12/12/2015 2:39:29 PM PST by Jet Jaguar
DES MOINES REGISTER SHOCK POLL: CRUZ 29%, TRUMP 22%, RUBIO 13%, CARSON 11%
That’s certainly true, but at least the Iowa GOP establishment doesn’t really like Jeb and isn’t big on Rubio either.
In about a month, I will run my Iowa Simulation for 2016.
Essentially, I go county by county and look at the results from the General Elections of 2004, 2008, and 2012, and Caucus Turnout for each county, the percent of the GOP Vote in the county compared to what turned out in the Caucus, and make estimations of what the turnout will be in the Caucus and General Election.
IA has 99 counties and I’m about 55 counties through so still a long way to go. But I know enough of the counties and the make-up of the voters to know what constitutes and “Establish Voter”, “Evangelical Voter”, “Ron Paulard”, etc.
They say turnout will rise in 2016. How much is still in the air. Some say 140,000 (from 120,000 or so in 2008/2012). Right now, I’m looking at 135,000. Reason is the GOP has gotten a little smaller in IA from economic issues in the State and many in the West left for other states in the past decade.
At 135,000 people I’m pretty certain that:
(1) Given Ted Cruz’s endorsements, he’s headed for a finish somewhere between 35-40% IF nobody else leaves the race. If Carson drops out, it could go higher. But this gives him an estimated vote total between 47,250 and 54,000. This total will be higher than what Huckabee got in 2008.
(2) Trump is banking on new attendees, former Paul voters, and little slices of everyone else (Establishment, Evangelicals, etc). Ron Paul got around 20% with organization. Based on the numbers, Trump looks to be capped in IA at 27% or just shy of the number of votes Huckabee got when he won in 2008. I don’t see Trump getting more than 37,000 votes in IA and if the weather is bad (blizzard on 1 Feb?) that always effects turnout.
(3) Rubio (or whomever the Establishment choice is) seems locked in at 13% this is essentially where he was last time. If Jeb and Christie (less likely) get out, his numbers could go up, but he is probably capped at 20% in a best case scenario.
(4) I’ve seen what happened to Ben Carson happen to Michele Bachmann last time. She tumbled all the way to 5% after everyone consolidated around Perry, then Cain, then Santorum at the last minute. Ben’s floor is probably slightly higher but I don’t think he’ll break 10% on Caucus night, unless Huckabee and Santorum drop out.
(5) Bush, Carly, Rand Paul, Huckabee, Santorum are finished in IA.
The last time I ran the simulation in 2012, the numbers showed a razor thin result between Romney and Gingrich (less than 60 votes). I nailed Romney’s total, but Santorum switched spots in Gingrich’s place, Bachmann switched places with Santorum, and Perry/Gingrich split the middle that originally just Perry.
Bottom Line:
(1) The Des Moines Register Poll shows Cruz with a 10,000 vote advantage to Trump (39,000-29,000) based on a turnout of approximately 135,000. If we follow the percentages to the eventual finish in February, this margin seems about right, but Cruz’s lead could grow whereas I think Trump is capped at 37,000 votes.
(2) Rubio doesn’t have to much to stay in 3rd
(3) Carson’s numbers are turning into Bachmann’s and the problem is once they’re gone, they’re gone.
Hayir, insanlar bana izlemiyor, ama ailem beni seviyor. Ailen sizi seviyor mu? Insanlar sizi izliyor mu? . Insanlar Trump’a izliyor. Cunku Trump turuncu bir palyaco. Tamam?
The Des Moines Register an absolute liberal left wing commy pinko crap of a publication. That said their polling for Iowa voters is almost always the best.
Your a dumb ass.
Trump is not pushing single payer. You didn’t know. This lie has been pushed here for over six months. You’re still doing it.
In his position as a man with $3 to $10 billion on the line and 22,500 employees homes on the line, Trump said nice things about a leading politician from his state. You can’t figure this out.
You haven’t used any roads, schools, universities, hospitals, hotels, sporting facilities... that were developed by imminent domain? You don’t think creating thousands of jobs and supporting the families of those employees might weight rather reasonably to one family’s needs? Really?
Reagan would not stand by and watch China run a $700 billion a year trade deficit with the United States. Years back, China was running a trade deficit with us that was approaching $1 trillion dollars a year. It has since corrected to about $350 billion a year. That IS NOT free trade. Chine manipulates it’s currency to effectively increase the cost of our goods going into China by 40%. You didn’t know this either?
LOL
That’s amazing considering that half of Trump’s supporters should really be Cruz supporters. The other half should support Bernnie Sanders or Howard Stern.
Cruz more than double Rubio.
Rubio has to drop out for the good of the Party.
*snicker*
Not even two months ago:
Iowa Poll: Carson surges to 9-point lead; Trump slides
Now he’s at 11%. Cruz is simply the flavor of the month in the media’s ‘anyone but Trump’ campaign.
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We welcome all of you Trump sycophants to come here to cry.
That is why this thread is provided; this is your safe place when you are offended.
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On what basis do you make that comment about Trump supporters and their support for Sanders or Stern?
You’re going go have to keep your head out of your kind-side for longer periods of time.
With Jeb I’m really puzzled. There is not now, nor has there ever been, a compelling reason to vote for him. He’s not as good a speaker as the others, his positions on immigration and education were abhorrent, his governorship was no better than Perry’s, Christie’s, Kasich’s, Huckabee’s, he’s been out of the loop for 8 years, and he really is low energy.
GW at least gave the impression of being a scalawag. Jeb is like voting for your high school counselor. Present and accounted for but no ummmph there.
It was purely because he is a Bush.
This should be pretty strait forward: people on a conservative website want the conservative to win the primary. Why isn’t it strait forward?
Nah, we’ll let you enjoy this moment, since you haven’t had too many so far. :)
While I KNOW Trump really wants to win this to rub it in, if he went on to NH and SC and won those two going away (as the polls indicate), he'd still come out with about a 4 or 5:1 delegate advantage.
I like the poll, Cruz is my first choice, Trump 2nd.
However I have never bought the line over the years that they were a credible paper, They hate Trumps guts, so we dont know how accurate this is.
We know that Cruz is doing well, he may in fact be ahead, just the Register can go to heck
The DMR poll had Trump by over twenty back in early September. Their poll headline read trump blazes to lead.
Iowa Poll: Trump blazes to lead; Carson quietly rises
lol.
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>> “Trump last night had the biggest townhall rally in Iowa ever.” <<
Yep, lots of labor union busses and all!
If he was running for president of the teachers union, he’d have it made.
Perhaps head of the AFL?
Go Shop steward!
If Christian means anything, it should be defined by the Christ’s Words.
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