Posted on 02/06/2011 9:39:48 PM PST by FromLori
Cotton, wheat, rice, and now corn. If revised Chinese import estimates by the US Grain Council are even remotely correct, look for corn prices of $6.80 a bushel at last check to jump by at least 15% in a very short amount of time. As the FT reports, "Corn prices – and with them, the price of meat – are set to explode if the latest import estimates from China are correct. The US Grain Council, the industry body, said late on Thursday that it has received information pointing to Chinese imports as high as 9m tonnes in 2011-12, up from 1.3m in 2010-11." Why is this a concern? Because "the US Department of Agriculture, which compiles benchmark estimates of supply, demand and stocks, forecast Chinese imports at just 1m tonnes in 2011-12." In other words, the whole forecast supply-demand equilibrium is about to be torn to shreds. And all this excludes the impact of neverending liquidity by the one and only, which will only make the speculative approach to surging corn relentless.
For those who think that there is any even remote hope of a respite in the endless climb in prices, we suggest reading the following:
The most China has imported in modern history is 4.3m tonnes in 1994-95 and 3m tonnes in 1978-79. For most of the past 50 years, Beijing has been largely absent from the international market, as domestic production was enough to meet demand.
But Terry Vinduska, the chairman of the council, said after visiting China that “estimates given to us were that China is short of 10m-15m tonnes in stocks and will need to purchase corn this year”. He pointed to about 9m tonnes in imports. “We learned the government normally keeps stocks at 30 per cent but they are currently a little over 5 per cent, which may lead to imports of 3m-9m tonnes.”
It is not the first warning of forthcoming massive imports. Recently, David C. Nelson, at Rabobank, one of the world’s largest lenders to the global agribusiness industry, warned that because China’s animal protein industry is so large, the order of magnitude of China shifting to become a net importer of corn could possibly be measured in tens of millions of tonnes, and in just a few years time.
“We note that China could become a net importer of 25m tonnes of corn as early as 2015,” he said. Senior executives at trading houses took note of Rabobank’s forecast. Is corn set to be another soyabean?
The US Grain Council did not disclose where it got the information and Chinese food import policy is erratic. With corn nearly at a record high, the country could very well opt to further drawdown stocks.
But the forecast of record imports still need to be taken seriously. When China started to import soyabean back in 1995, few thought the country would today be buying nearly 60 per cent of all the global trade in soyabean. While China waving it in needs little explanation for the observent ones, here's what this means from a third party:
Most of the traders I have spoken to believe that China will become a big corn importer, although none believe it will follow the same pattern as in soyabean. Even so, 9m tonnes is a huge number. Enough to push corn prices above the 2007-08 record of nearly $7.65 a bushel. In early trading on Friday, corn was at $6.65 a bushel. And with six sigma floods, record cyclones, massive snowstorms and abrnomal climatic patterns now a near-daily event courtesy of the Jet Stream having decided to take a sabbatical, the only thing the grains and softs market needs is a lit match to set the whole thing ablaze. Luckily we have our very own chaircreature doing his best to make sure that the commodities market makes eating an activity best enjoyed by those who will be bailed out by the administration the next time there is a downtick in the market.
Mr. Durden appears to have been drinking as he wrote this article .... Some of those sentences just flat-out don’t make sense.
I feel so good. Every time I fill up my car I starve another third-world person to death. Great...just great!
You are completely ignorant of farming in 2011. The only game in town is lean, low-fat meat and has been for years. If you raise otherwise you aren’t going to sell it. I have sat down and talked to farmers with 100 to over 30,000 head of cattle. They want protein and a just enough carbs and fat to give the animal enough energy to finish out, make milk, etc. Hogs have a higher energy requirement than cattle, but the farmer still doesn’t want any more carbs or fats than necessary. That why hogs are finished out on corn-soybean meal feed and not straight corn, to make sure they get enough protein.
Grains are in short supply. There are 5 major grain producers in the world. The US, Russia, Canada, Australia, and to some extent Argentina. Russia has banned all grain exports because of drought and fires; in an attempt to feed their own people. Australia is coming off of a series of droughts, and this year for much of the country instead of drought they are more suited for growing rice due to massive rainfalls and flooding. The US is devoting 1/3 of its grain output for energy inefficient ethanol production, instead of for food. You can’t make this stuff up.
There is less grain for all that money to chase. Thus the price rises even more. I mentioned Europe. There may be some measurable effect on food prices there, but not as bad as in the underdeveloped world.
Food riots are taking place in North Africa and the Middle East. It includes Egypt. It brought down the government of Tunisia. There are riots in Morocco, Algeria, the Sudan, and of course also across south Asia.”
http://pajamasmedia.com/richardfernandez/2011/01/27/dustbins-i-have-known/#comment-140374
I have sold dozens, and was raised on a farm.
Are you at Atkins-ite?
Where are the numerous and documented problems pigs have from eating fructose in corn?
8 billion a year is wasted.
A lot of energy every year is wasted.
40% of our edible corn crop is “wasted” and made into a pig food supplement.
You ARE ignorant!
Distillers spent corn is digested much more efficiently.
I myself have none, but as I said I know and grew up with many farmers who have several thousand pigs in the confinements at any given time. I am telling you what they are telling me.
Too much corn produces fat. Fructose not needed for energy converts to fat. Farmers don’t want fat meat. That’s why they finish with corn-soybean meal feed here in Iowa, to get the right ratio of carb-fat-protein-fiber to produce meat with low fat. It’s pretty simple really.
Nice try with the Alinsky tactics though. You’re desperate to get a ‘Atkins-ite’ label, or any label on me because your argument isn’t holding water. Since you’re obviously high on carbs, does that make you a PETA person?
-——But let’s keep using corn as fuel!———
Corn as fuel or corn as dog food...... which should we curtail?
Fuel of course. We can’t starve granny by limiting dog food sales
It is your argument that is attracting water to engine parts, not holding any water. ‘Nothing is wasted with ethanol’ is a ludicrous argument. The ‘numerous and documented problems with pigs eating fructose’ are in your imagination.
“Obviously high on carbs”?
Yes, a delusional Atkins-ite who thinks PIGS should be on a low carb diet!
Amusingly delusional!
The FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) rose for the seventh consecutive month, averaging 231 points in January 2011, up 3.4 percent from December 2010 and the highest (in both real and nominal terms) since the index has been backtracked in 1990. http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/FoodPricesIndex/en/
Which is why: I'm long on wheat.
That means you are betting the price of wheat will rise?
I THINK THAT’S A
VERY VERY VERY
SAFE BET
along with all the other commodities food prices.
Repeat after banana ben or timmy g inflation is not a problem..
Ben Bernanke’s ‘70s Show
Inflation is on the horizon, and now is the time for the Fed to head it off.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704709304576124033729197172.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
Geithner: Global Inflation ‘Not High on List of Concerns
http://blogs.wsj.com/davos/2011/01/28/geithner-global-inflation-not-high-on-list-of-concerns/
Geithner says we will not make drastic cuts BTW and he says they can just loosen up on the dollar makes you think they are purposely destroying it.
US will not make drastic budget cuts, Geithner tells Davos
http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2666477/posts
“Is Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke stoking inflation? Of course he is. Anyone with common sense knows that if you give $600 billion cash to the banks with no qualifications — as he did with the second round of quantitative easing — they will use it to speculate in the markets. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) just bought $1 billion of copper.”
http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2011/02/04/bernanke-denies-causing-inflation/
Marc Faber Calls Bernanke A Liar, Thinks US Inflation Is Running Up To 8%, Believes Pakistan Will Fall Next
Do you know squat about anything? The ethanol credit goes to the blender, not the producers. It’s to compensate them for the inherent problems of handling and blending ethanol with gas, and to give them incentive to do so. The main issue is water attraction, that’s why they put ethanol thru molecular sieves, because you can’t get that last 5% out with distillation, because ethanol like ammonia has a chemical affinity for water. That why ethanol gas doesn’t freeze in the winter because it keeps the water in suspension. Ethanol producers generally get zip from the govt and have to make a profit on what they sell.
What exactly is wasted in ethanol production? Do you understand that the reason pig farmers supplement with soybean meal is that the carb-protein ratio in corn is TOO HIGH? You can’t feed straight corn to a pig, because of the extra carbs. Farmers don’t want any more carbs than they need to to provide energy to the animal as it’s gaining weight. Other grains like wheat, or even dried milk have lower carbs to protein and can be feed with less soybean supplement, and some farmers do exactly that.
So what exactly is lost by converting carbs to ethanol? To ag animals - not much. If they keep the stillage out of the DDG, they can feed those out at a fairly high rate and the carb-protein ratio is better as is the amino acid profile. It’s better feed. At least that’s what the farmers tell me. Who wouldn’t want better feed plus ethanol or some other fermented product. Maybe they do it different where you’re at, but that’s how they do it in Iowa, and we are a little bit experienced with hogs and corn here.
You can blow all the rhetorical smoke in the Universe on this subject, but your argument is seriously weak. You have still fail to answer why it takes so much energy to make Ethanol and the pitiful energy it yields in comparison.
This is the REAL reason that Ethanol absolutely must be subsidized by those of us who are not on Government welfare like the Ethanol industry is. Without the Government supporting it, it would raise the cost of Gas by 50% and you know it.
Your repeated mantra that livestock feed justifies this folly and gross waste is disingenuous to say the least.
Where is the documentation of these numerous problems Pigs have with eating corn with fructose?
Numerous problems including rapid weight gain?
What is wasted in ethanol production?
8 billion a year in subsidies.
Engine parts rusted due to water attraction.
40% of our crop of edible corn reduced to a pig food supplement.
An Iowan, eh?
Not surprising that those who seem most in favor of ethanol are those most likely to benefit from its continued government mandate and subsidies.
If it made any economic sense at all to turn corn into ethanol, and ethanol were actually a consumer desired product, it wouldn't require a mandate and subsidies.
Economics 101.
Conservatism 101.
No wonder it seems so far beyond your understanding!
Most of the energy ratio information out there on the web comes from Dave Pimintel out of Cornell the uber-liberal, peak oil advocate, etc. Misinformation is a better term. He’s the guy that says ethanol takes gobs of water because he includes the rain falling on corn which would fall whether corn is grown or not. Real studies by the govt and other institutions show that ethanol is slightly energy positive.
The blender credit for ethanol is 45 cents a gallon. That’s all. For E-10 it’s 4.5 cents. That’s all. As far as other govt subsidies, such as for growing corn, those were there LONG before ethanol came one the scene in a serious way in 2000. If ethanol weren’t here, in a bumper crop year the corn rots on the ground if there’s no overseas buyer. The corn will be grown anyway. Ethanol would in no way raise the cost of gas 50% higher if the govt didn’t subsidize ethanol and corn.
Not to say that I’m pro-ethanol. I hate ethanol for a number of reasons. What I am saying though is that we should be taking the protein, fat, and other valuable fractionates out of corn and take the remaining carbs down to simple sugars and ferment them to something valuable. Not necessarily ethanol, but definitely without subsidy or mandates.
The problems with pigs eating too much corn fructose. It’s called FAT. Too much fructose consumption converts to fat in humans and animals both. Yeah they will gain weight but it will be too high in FAT. The market today is for lean meat, not fat. That stuff went out with the 50’s. Without the stillage you can feed DDG out at a higher rate to animals than you can straight corn.
What are you talking about ‘edible corn’? PEOPLE DON’T EAT FIELD CORN. About half the supply of corn before ethanol went to animals, about a fifth to soda pop, and the rest to starch and a zillion other products like corn starch, germ, etc. However, people don’t eat #2 yellow dent corn as an unprocessed product. Any corn eaten that way is another type of corn.
I don’t advocate for ethanol subsidies or mandates.
I don’t advocate for using ethanol as fuel.
I advocate for using farm products for non-subsidized, non-mandated added-value ag.
No added value ag, the product sits on the ground and rots. Or feeds people who hate us. No processing jobs. Keep the jobs here, don’t feed our enemies, don’t let it rot.
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