Skip to comments.Key House Races Update - We've Added WV-03 and the GOP Gains continue
Posted on 09/18/2010 11:19:16 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
We've added another Vulnerable Dem to our Master List: WV-03
That brings our list to 99 seats. We now have 87 Vulnerable Democrats and 12 pretty safe Republicans on out list.
This weeks news:
It was a pretty average week for our six "Experts" with a total of 23 upgrades to the races on the KHR Master List but the Dems managed to get just 3 of those 23.
We've added the Freedom's Lighthouse to our list of Pickup Projections and they currently are predicing a 49 seat pickup.
We are now listing all the Pickup Projections we can find on the Home Page at KHR.
And we've revised our list of the latest Polls. We now list all of our polls sorted by both District and the KHR Posting Date. You can find those Polls HERE.
We've also added a link on the KHR Home page to our Tier 2 List. That's the list of Districts that are showing some movement in the polls and with our 6 "Experts". We've promoted 8 of these races to the Master List in the last few weeks.
Here's the summary of the changes to our Experts' ratings:
Those changes moved our index to -.160 from last weeks -.158.
Yikes you say - just like last week. How can we make such a small pickup with all those positive changes for the Republicans????
The answer is that we've added another Vulnerable Dem to our list that is, at this point, still favored to hold on to his seat. This skews are index. We knew that would happen when we add new Dems to the list. But we've added one more target and that is what counts.
September 18: Hawaii Freepers - Go vote for Charles Djou. Show the power of the Tea Party.
|1||LA||3||Ravi Sangisetty||Open D||Jeff Landry||2.2||Likely R|
|2||NY||29||Mathew Zeller||Open D||Tom Reed||2.2||Likely R|
|3||TN||6||Brett Carter||Open D||Diane Black||2.2||Likely R|
|4||AR||2||Joyce Elliott||Open D||Tim Griffin||2.0||Likely R|
|5||KS||3||Stephene Moore||Open D||Kevin Yoder||1.2||Leans R|
|6||CO||4||Betsy Markey||Incumbent D||Cory Gardner||0.8||Leans R|
|7||FL||24||Suzanne Kosmas||Incumbent D||Sandy Adams||0.8||Leans R|
|8||IL||11||Debbie Halvorson||Incumbent D||Adam Kinzinger||0.8||Leans R|
|9||IN||8||W. Trent Van Haaften||Open D||Dr. Larry Bucshon||0.8||Leans R|
|10||AR||1||Chad Causey||Open D||Rick Crawford||0.7||Leans R|
|11||MD||1||Frank Kratovil||Incumbent D||Andy Harris||0.7||Leans R|
|12||NH||2||Annie Kuster||Open D||Charlie Bass||0.7||Leans R|
|13||NM||2||Harry Teague||Incumbent D||Steve Pearce||0.7||Leans R|
|14||OH||1||Steve Driehaus||Incumbent D||Steve Chabot||0.7||Leans R|
|15||OH||15||Mary Jo Kilroy||Incumbent D||Steve Stivers||0.7||Leans R|
|16||VA||5||Tom Perriello||Incumbent D||Robert Hurt||0.7||Leans R|
|17||WA||3||Denny Heck||Open D||Jaime Herrera||0.7||Leans R|
|18||MI||1||Gary McDowell||Open D||Dr. Daniel Benishek||0.5||Toss-Up|
|19||MS||1||Travis Childers||Incumbent D||Alan Nunnelee||0.5||Toss-Up|
|20||ND||AL||Earl Pomeroy||Incumbent D||Rick Berg||0.5||Toss-Up|
|21||NH||1||Carol Shea-Porter||Incumbent D||Frank Guinta||0.5||Toss-Up|
|22||PA||11||Paul Kanjorski||Incumbent D||Lou Barletta||0.5||Toss-Up|
|23||TN||8||Roy Herron||Open D||Stephen Fincher||0.5||Toss-Up|
|24||TX||17||Chet Edwards||Incumbent D||Bill Flores||0.5||Toss-Up|
|25||FL||8||Alan Grayson||Incumbent D||Daniel Webster||0.3||Toss-Up|
|26||MI||7||Mark Schauer||Incumbent D||Tim Walberg||0.3||Toss-Up|
|27||OH||16||John Boccieri||Incumbent D||Jim Renacci||0.3||Toss-Up|
|28||PA||7||Bryan Lentz||Open D||Pat Meehan||0.3||Toss-Up|
|29||WI||7||Julie Lassa||Open D||Sean Duffy||0.3||Toss-Up|
|30||FL||2||Allen Boyd||Incumbent D||Steve Southerland||0.2||Toss-Up|
|31||IL||14||Bill Foster||Incumbent D||Randy Hultgren||0.2||Toss-Up|
|32||IN||9||Baron Hill||Incumbent D||Todd Young||0.2||Toss-Up|
|33||NV||3||Dina Titus||Incumbent D||Dr. Joe Heck||0.2||Toss-Up|
|34||SC||5||John Spratt Jr.||Incumbent D||Mick Mulvaney||0.2||Toss-Up|
|35||VA||2||Glenn Nye||Incumbent D||Scott Rigell||0.2||Toss-Up|
|36||AZ||1||Ann Kirkpatrick||Incumbent D||Paul Gosar||0.0||Toss-Up|
|37||PA||3||Kathleen Dahlkemper||Incumbent D||Mike Kelly||0.0||Toss-Up|
|38||SD||AL||Stephanie Sandlin||Incumbent D||Kristi Noem||0.0||Toss-Up|
|39||AZ||5||Harold Mitchell||Incumbent D||David Schweikert||-0.2||Toss-Up|
|40||NY||24||Mike Arcuri||Incumbent D||Richard Hanna||-0.2||Toss-Up|
|41||WV||1||Mike Oliverio||Open D||David B. McKinley||-0.2||Toss-Up|
|42||PA||10||Chris Carney||Incumbent D||Tom Marino||-0.3||Toss-Up|
|43||WI||8||Steve Kagen||Incumbent D||Reid Ribble||-0.3||Toss-Up|
|44||AL||2||Bobby Bright||Incumbent D||Martha Roby||-0.5||Toss-Up|
|45||CA||11||Jerry McNerney||Incumbent D||David Harmer||-0.5||Toss-Up|
|46||GA||8||Jim Marshall||Incumbent D||Austin Scott||-0.5||Toss-Up|
|47||NC||8||Larry Kissell||Incumbent D||Harold Johnson||-0.5||Toss-Up|
|48||NY||19||John Hall||Incumbent D||Nan Hayworth||-0.5||Toss-Up|
|49||AZ||8||Gabrielle Giffords||Incumbent D||Jesse Kelly||-0.7||Leans D|
|50||IA||3||Leonard Boswell||Incumbent D||Brad Zaun||-0.7||Leans D|
|51||MA||10||William Keating||Open D||Jeff Perry||-0.7||Leans D|
|52||PA||8||Patrick Murphy||Incumbent D||Mike Fitzpatrick||-0.7||Leans D|
|53||TX||23||Ciro Rodriguez||Incumbent D||Quico Canseco||-0.7||Leans D|
|54||MO||4||Ike Skelton||Incumbent D||Vicky Hartzler||-0.8||Leans D|
|55||NM||1||Martin Heinrich||Incumbent D||Jon Barela||-0.8||Leans D|
|56||OH||18||Zach Space||Incumbent D||Bob Gibbs||-0.8||Leans D|
|57||VA||9||Rick Boucher||Incumbent D||Morgan Griffith||-0.8||Leans D|
|58||PA||12||Mark Critz||Incumbent D||Timothy Burns||-1.0||Leans D|
|59||CO||3||John Salazar||Incumbent D||Scott Tipton||-1.0||Leans D|
|60||ID||1||Walter Minnick||Incumbent D||Raul Labrador||-1.0||Leans D|
|61||KY||6||Ben Chandler||Incumbent D||Andy Barr||-1.0||Leans D|
|62||NJ||3||John Adler||Incumbent D||Jon Runyan||-1.0||Leans D|
|63||NY||1||Tim Bishop||Incumbent D||Randy Altschuler||-1.0||Leans D|
|64||NY||20||Scott Murphy||Incumbent D||Chris Gibson||-1.0||Leans D|
|65||NY||23||Bill Owens||Incumbent D||Matt Doheny||-1.0||Leans D|
|66||OH||13||Betty Sutton||Incumbent D||Tom Ganley||-1.0||Leans D|
|67||OR||5||Kurt Schrader||Incumbent D||Scott Bruun||-1.0||Leans D|
|68||IN||2||Joe Donnelly||Incumbent D||Jackie Walorski||-1.2||Leans D|
|69||TN||4||Lincoln Davis||Incumbent D||Dr. Scott Desjarlais||-1.2||Leans D|
|70||VA||11||Gerald Connolly||Incumbent D||Keith Fimian||-1.2||Leans D|
|71||CA||47||Loretta Sanchez||Incumbent D||Van Tran||-1.3||Leans D|
|72||FL||22||Ron Klein||Incumbent D||Allen West||-1.3||Leans D|
|73||GA||2||Sanford Bishop||Incumbent D||Mike Keown||-1.3||Leans D|
|74||MI||9||Gary Peters||Incumbent D||"Rocky" Raczowski||-1.3||Leans D|
|75||NY||13||Mike McMahon||Incumbent D||Mike Grimm||-1.3||Leans D|
|76||WA||2||Rick Larsen||Incumbent D||John Koster||-1.3||Leans D|
|77||IL||17||Phil Hare||Incumbent D||Bobby Schilling||-1.7||Likely D|
|78||NC||11||Heath Shuler||Incumbent D||Jeff Miller||-1.7||Likely D|
|79||CT||4||Jim Himes||Incumbent D||Dan Debicella||-1.8||Likely D|
|80||IL||8||Melissa Bean||Incumbent D||Joe Walsh||-1.8||Likely D|
|81||NY||25||Dan Maffei||Incumbent D||Ann Marie Buerkle||-1.8||Likely D|
|82||PA||4||Jason Altmire||Incumbent D||Keith Rothfus||-1.8||Likely D|
|83||PA||17||Tim Holden||Incumbent D||David Argall||-1.8||Likely D|
|84||WV||3||Nick Rahall||Incumbent D||"Spike" Maynard||-2.0||Likely D|
|85||CO||7||Ed Perlmulter||Incumbent D||Ryan Frazier||-2.2||Likely D|
|86||CT||5||Christopher Murphy||Incumbent D||Sam Caligiuri||-2.2||Likely D|
|87||MN||1||Tim Walz||Incumbent D||Randy Demmer||-2.3||Likely D|
Do you have an average amount of growth in the lead for GOP candidates?
I’m looking for the trend line to begin appearing right around now and through October.
We are working on Mike Ross (D-ARK) vs Beth Ann Rankin (R-ARK) - he has someone video tape each of her public appearances
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
Beth Anne Rankin Turns Up The Heat on Ross
A statement from Jim Harris, Director of Communications for Beth Anne Rankin for Congress:
Career politician Mike Ross is starting to feel the heat for all the liberal votes he has cast while in Congress. That is why he sent out his myth list Monday. He hopes voters will not go to the record and see that he is not the conservative as he claims.
With the polls showing he has dropped to 49 percent, he is desperate to muddy the waters
Here are the truths to disprove the myths he released:
MYTH: Miss Rankin says Mike Ross has voted for Nancy Pelosi four times, but what she doesnt say is that Nancy Pelosi was unopposed on the Democratic ballot.
TRUTH: The Speaker of the House sets the congressional agenda for the next two years. The question of who is elected Speaker determines if liberal or conservative legislation gets brought up for votes.
Mike Ross can try to run away from his four votes to make Nancy Pelosi Speaker of the House by saying there wasnt another Democrat on the ballot. That does not change the fact that Ross voted for Pelosi. It does not change the fact that voting for Ross in November is giving Pelosi another vote for Speaker in January 2011. A vote for Mike Ross is a vote for Nancy Pelosi.
Look at the issues that are important to Arkansans:
Abortion: The National Right to Life Committee rating on Pelosi is zero.
Gay rights: Pelosi opposes a constitutional amendment defining marriage as one-man-one-woman and votes 100 percent of the time with the Human Rights Campaign, the largest national gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender organization.
Illegal immigration: Pelosi opposes building a fence along the border with Mexico and supports amnesty for illegal aliens.
Gun control: Pelosi has an F grade from the National Rifle Association.
Pro-family: The Christian Coalition says Pelosi votes pro-family only 8 percent of the time.
Taxes: Pelosi doesnt just want the Bush Tax Cuts to expire; she supports repeal of those tax cuts.
If re-elected, Ross will once again vote to put Pelosi in charge of setting the agenda for the House of Representatives. A vote for Ross is a vote for Pelosi.
MYTH: Miss Rankin says Mike Ross has voted with his party 96% of the time, but what she doesnt say is these totals include procedural votes, such as quorum calls and motions to adjourn, recess or to approve the congressional record.
TRUTH: What Beth Anne really says and Ross ought to know this since he has someone video tape each of her public appearances is that from the start of the current Congress until the day she filed, Ross voted with Pelosi 94.6 percent of the time. That is a matter of public record. Ross says he is a conservative Democrat but votes that often with Pelosi. He talks the conservative talk, but doesnt walk the conservative walk.
MYTH: Miss Rankin says Mike Ross is not a fiscal conservative, despite local, state and national headlines and a voting record to the contrary.
TRUTH: Does he mean votes like the one of April 29, 2009? Ross voted for the original Obama budget. Ross was one of 223 Democrats who voted to pass Senate Concurrent Resolution 13 and all the fiscal irresponsibility it contained.
Maybe he means the Jan. 28, 2009 vote for the stimulus bill where Democrats promised it would keep the national unemployment level under 8 percent. It has since gone above 10 percent and currently is 9.7 percent. The stimulus bill is a failure that ran up the federal debt. Ross voted for the stimulus bill. There are still millions of dollars provided in that bill that are unspent. Expect Ross and other Democrats to be handing that money out in the next seven weeks to try and buy votes with our own tax dollars.
The Blue Dog congressman should be guarding the federal budget, but he didnt bark while the federal debt swelled to a record $13.3 trillion the real source of our economic woes. You dont keep a dog who doesnt bark to alert you to danger. It is time for the voters to send Ross back to Prescott to live under the laws he has voted on the last 10 years.
The huge Tsunami is going to slam the Dems on November 2nd, and the whining lamentations from PMSNBC, cBS, CNN, NBC will be fun to watch. ;-)
Political Junky Two will probably post his updates later today. You will see the trend. He calculates the likely Republican Pickup two different ways. It's been steady up for the Republicans. We hope that trend continues.
I believe a number of voters have expressed an incumbent vote but as the Tea Party shows its viability, they will come over to the winning (issue positive) side. There re going to be a number of incredulous Dems come Nov 3!!
Wasn’t Spike a Democrat before he was a Republican?
What happens, if all of these present political predictions turn out to be overreaching?
Quinnipiac showed both key Ohio races looking good.
This year is going to be a conservative TIDAL WAVE!
Check this out:
NC-4, held by (D) David Price (Sociology professor from Duke) is TIED with (R) BJ Lawson!
I have not seen a single BJ Lawson sign or sticker, so this poll probably captures the anti-Dem incumbent feeling pretty well.
Illinois 17 is now listed by the Cook Report as a toss-up. The incumbent Rat is Phil “I Don’t Care About the Constitutuion” Hare. Here a link to the story in Quad City Online: http://qconline.com/archives/qco/display.php?id=510551
What does repeal mean?
Taxes: Pelosi doesnt just want the Bush Tax Cuts to expire; she supports repeal of those tax cuts.
I disagree on MA 10. It is at least a toss-up. This is an excellent summary by the way, you’re doing a good job.
Thanks for the ping IP
Recent poll by Siena has Dem Murphy ahead 17pts.
This is in contrast to the campaign’s internal polling which has Chris down by only 5pts.
The Siena poll did show that 2/3 were unfamiliar with Gibson, who has just started with ads, flyers, etc.
Siena’s track record is kinda iffy. They blew it on the Lazio-Paladino poll by admittedly misjudging the turnout of upstate vs downstate Republicans. What this Murphy-Gibson poll doesn’t say is what modeling Siena is using to judge turnout patterns this year. The Siena poll has Gibson winning just 59 percent of Republicans! That does not seem credible...
In the 2006 race for this district they had incumbent Sweeney(R) up 17 pts at this point in campaign, and he lost to Gillibrand(D) by 6 pts....
Just sayin’... in case you use the local Siena poll in NY20’s profile
I am a bit surprised about ND. I thought Berg was about 10 points ahead of Pomeroy. Yet this race is considered a toss-up?+
“The huge Tsunami is going to slam the Dems on November 2nd.”
Maybe, but please don’t get cocky or even mildly complacent. There will be October surprises and energized Marxists galore.
ME-2 Should be on that list. The Republican is only 7pts back and this district has been Republican in the past. It is mislabeled in your tier 2 listing as Me-1.
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