Free Republic

It's been a fun ride watching our list of Vulnerable Dems grow and the predictions of our six "Experts" move in the GOP direction week after week. But today is the day when we cash in on all of the hard work. I hope everyone has voted and is ready for the Super Bowl of midterm elections. Grab your popcorn, settle back in that easy chair and watch the Dems squirm while they explain to all of us that it really is just anger over the "Bush Recession" and not Obama's policies that is causing the American public to turn...

THIS IS THE FINAL UPDATE OF THE KEY HOUSE RACES MASTER LISTSo of course we just had to add two more Vulnerable Dems: ME-02 and UT-02.So we now have 112 seats in play - 105 Dem seats and 7 for the Republicans. And only 4 of those GOP seats are looking vulnerable at this point.Freeper PJ Too has been  generating weekly Pickup Projections based on the KeyHouseRace Master List and the latest polls. PJ has two ways of modeling his pickup projection: Expert Ratings Based and Poll Based. We have put links to both models on the Home Page at...

The Key House Races "Candidate of the Day" thread will be posted daily up until Nov. 2 and feature a different candidate each day. Each of these candidates is in a Toss Up, Leans D, or Likely D race and represents one of the front line soldiers in the fierce battle for control of the U.S. House.The DCCC and liberal special interest groups are pouring resources into these races and will continue to do so up until Nov. 2. Thousands of donations targeted toward the GOP candidates in competitive races will NEUTRALIZE the donations of these Democratic special interest groups....

The Key House Races "Candidate of the Day" thread will be posted daily up until Nov. 2 and feature a different candidate each day. Each of these candidates is in a Toss Up, Leans D, or Likely D race and represents one of the front line soldiers in the fierce battle for control of the U.S. House.The DCCC and liberal special interest groups are pouring resources into these races and will continue to do so up until Nov. 2. Thousands of donations targeted toward the GOP candidates in competitive races will NEUTRALIZE the donations of these Democratic special interest groups....

Our list of Vulnerable Democrats just keeps growing. We have added 4 more Vulnerable Dems to our Master List: MA-04, ME-01, MO-03 and TX-27.We would like to congratulate Barney Frank for making it on to our Master List in this last week of the 2010 election season.So we now have 110 seats in play - 103 Dem seats and 7 for the Republicans. And only 4 of those GOP seats are looking vulnerable at this point.We also added OR-05 to our Tier 2 list that now has 8 Not-Quite-Ready-For-Prime-Time Vulnerable Dems that are our leading candiates for making it to...

The Key House Races "Candidate of the Day" thread will be posted daily up until Nov. 2 and feature a different candidate each day. Each of these candidates is in a Toss Up, Leans D, or Likely D race and represents one of the front line soldiers in the fierce battle for control of the U.S. House.The DCCC and liberal special interest groups are pouring resources into these races and will continue to do so up until Nov. 2. Thousands of donations targeted toward the GOP candidates in competitive races will NEUTRALIZE the donations of these Democratic special interest groups....

Murphy: GOP using 'Florida-style' tactics By: PETER HALL Bucks County Courier Times The Congressman charged Republicans with using unfair tactics to give their candidate for the 8th Congressional District an edge. Congressman Patrick Murphy blasted Bucks County Republicans for using "Florida-style" tactics to deny voters the right to participate in Tuesday's election, which includes the hotly contested race between Murphy and his Republican challenger Mike Fitzpatrick. Murphy's statement in a brief news conference Wednesday afternoon came shortly before Democratic Party lawyers filed a response to Republican claims that Murphy's campaign is behind an effort to mislead voters into applying for...

The Key House Races "Candidate of the Day" thread will be posted daily up until Nov. 2 and feature a different candidate each day. Each of these candidates is in a Toss Up, Leans D, or Likely D race and represents one of the front line soldiers in the fierce battle for control of the U.S. House.The DCCC and liberal special interest groups are pouring resources into these races and will continue to do so up until Nov. 2. Thousands of donations targeted toward the GOP candidates in competitive races will NEUTRALIZE the donations of these Democratic special interest groups....

The Crystal Ball’s Final Calls Larry J. Sabato, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics October 28th, 2010 The time has finally come in this two-year election cycle to make the final calls. Thanks to everyone who has helped us by providing background info, tips, private polls, observations, and constructive criticism. We operate on the proverbial shoestring and we’re outside the Beltway (a plus and a minus), so we can always use the assistance. Our tradition is that we make a prediction in every contest. We’ve been studying these states, districts, and candidates for many years, and we feel entitled! We’re proud...

At KeyHouseRaces we have been logging the lastest polls for the House races in play since early September. Although we initialy posted both Dem and GOP internal polls we gave that idea up when we started to recognize that, in general, these polls were highly skewed in favor of the party doing the polling. The Nate Silver estimate for that skewing is about 6 points. That would put Dem and GOP polls 12 points apart when polling the same district. Posting these is clearly a waste of time. So we don't post internal polls anymore, even the friendly ones. Here...

The Key House Races "Candidate of the Day" thread will be posted daily up until Nov. 2 and feature a different candidate each day. Each of these candidates is in a Toss Up, Leans D, or Likely D race and represents one of the front line soldiers in the fierce battle for control of the U.S. House.The DCCC and liberal special interest groups are pouring resources into these races and will continue to do so up until Nov. 2. Thousands of donations targeted toward the GOP candidates in competitive races will NEUTRALIZE the donations of these Democratic special interest groups....

The Key House Races "Candidate of the Day" thread will be posted daily up until Nov. 2 and feature a different candidate each day. Each of these candidates is in a Toss Up, Leans D, or Likely D race and represents one of the front line soldiers in the fierce battle for control of the U.S. House.The DCCC and liberal special interest groups are pouring resources into these races and will continue to do so up until Nov. 2. Thousands of donations targeted toward the GOP candidates in competitive races will NEUTRALIZE the donations of these Democratic special interest groups....

If you live in or near a Key House Race district and have a few hours to spare between now and Nov. 2, contact the candidate below and volunteer for the campaign. Our candidates are sprinting toward the finish line. Now's the time for a huge GOTV push to propel them to victory. Help is needed with phoning, walking precincts, literature drops, sign waving, rallies, writing letters and emails, and office tasks. Display a yard sign or bumper sticker and don't forget about social networking-Twitter, Facebook, You Tube, etc. Contributions are also essential for the final sprint.The buglers are warming up....

The Key House Races "Candidate of the Day" thread will be posted daily up until Nov. 2 and feature a different candidate each day. Each of these candidates is in a Toss Up, Leans D, or Likely D race and represents one of the front line soldiers in the fierce battle for control of the U.S. House.The DCCC and liberal special interest groups are pouring resources into these races and will continue to do so up until Nov. 2. Thousands of donations targeted toward the GOP candidates in competitive races will NEUTRALIZE the donations of these Democratic special interest groups....

The Key House Races "Candidate of the Day" thread will be posted daily up until Nov. 2 and feature a different candidate each day. Each of these candidates is in a Toss Up, Leans D, or Likely D race and represents one of the front line soldiers in the fierce battle for control of the U.S. House.The DCCC and liberal special interest groups are pouring resources into these races and will continue to do so up until Nov. 2. Thousands of donations targeted toward the GOP candidates in competitive races will NEUTRALIZE the donations of these Democratic special interest groups....

As noted last week, we have given up our one-time goal of  holding our Master List to just 100 races. There are just too many Vulnerable Democrats surfacing unexpectedly for us to stick to that plan.And this week was no exception. We added 5 new Vulnerable Dems to our Master List: AZ-07, IA-01, IA-02, MN-08 and NY-22.So we now have 106 seats in play - 99 Dem seats and 7 for the Republicans. And only 4 of those GOP seats are looking vulnerable at this point.We also added MO-03 and TX-27 to our Tier 2 list that now has 11...

The Key House Races "Candidate of the Day" thread will be posted daily up until Nov. 2 and feature a different candidate each day. Each of these candidates is in a Toss Up, Leans D, or Likely D race and represents one of the front line soldiers in the fierce battle for control of the U.S. House.The DCCC and liberal special interest groups are pouring resources into these races and will continue to do so up until Nov. 2. Thousands of donations targeted toward the GOP candidates in competitive races will NEUTRALIZE the donations of these Democratic special interest groups....

The Key House Races "Candidate of the Day" thread will be posted daily up until Nov. 2 and feature a different candidate each day. Each of these candidates is in a Toss Up, Leans D, or Likely D race and represents one of the front line soldiers in the fierce battle for control of the U.S. House.The DCCC and liberal special interest groups are pouring resources into these races and will continue to do so up until Nov. 2. Thousands of donations targeted toward the GOP candidates in competitive races will NEUTRALIZE the donations of these Democratic special interest groups....

The Key House Races "Candidate of the Day" thread will be posted daily up until Nov. 2 and feature a different candidate each day. Each of these candidates is in a Toss Up, Leans D, or Likely D race and represents one of the front line soldiers in the fierce battle for control of the U.S. House.The DCCC and liberal special interest groups are pouring resources into these races and will continue to do so up until Nov. 2. Thousands of donations targeted toward the GOP candidates in competitive races will NEUTRALIZE the donations of these Democratic special interest groups....

The Key House Races "Candidate of the Day" thread will be posted daily up until Nov. 2 and feature a different candidate each day. Each of these candidates is in a Toss Up, Leans D, or Likely D race and represents one of the front line soldiers in the fierce battle for control of the U.S. House.The DCCC and liberal special interest groups are pouring resources into these races and will continue to do so up until Nov. 2. Thousands of donations targeted toward the GOP candidates in competitive races will NEUTRALIZE the donations of these Democratic special interest groups....