Key House Races Update - We've Added WV-03 and the GOP Gains continue

KeyHouseRaces.com ^ | 18 September 2010 | Interceptpoint

[InterceptPoint]

We've added another Vulnerable Dem to our Master List: WV-03

That brings our list to 99 seats. We now have 87 Vulnerable Democrats and 12 pretty safe Republicans on out list.

This weeks news:

It was a pretty average week for our six "Experts" with a total of 23 upgrades to the races on the KHR Master List but the Dems managed to get just 3 of those 23.

We've added the Freedom's Lighthouse to our list of Pickup Projections and they currently are predicing a 49 seat pickup.

We are now listing all the Pickup Projections we can find on the Home Page at KHR.

And we've revised our list of the latest Polls. We now list all of our polls sorted by both District and the KHR Posting Date. You can find those Polls HERE.

We've also added a link on the KHR Home page to our Tier 2 List. That's the list of Districts that are showing some movement in the polls and with our 6 "Experts". We've promoted 8 of these races to the Master List in the last few weeks.

Here's the summary of the changes to our Experts' ratings:

• There were a total of 23 updates this week to the 99 Congressional races that we believe are truly in play this year.
• 20 were favorable to the Republicans
• 3 were favorable to the Democrats

Those changes moved our index to -.160 from last weeks -.158.

Yikes you say - just like last week. How can we make such a small pickup with all those positive changes for the Republicans????

The answer is that we've added another Vulnerable Dem to our list that is, at this point, still favored to hold on to his seat. This skews are index. We knew that would happen when we add new Dems to the list. But we've added one more target and that is what counts.

September 18: Hawaii Freepers - Go vote for Charles Djou. Show the power of the Tea Party.

[InterceptPoint]

I'm posting just the Dems on our list today ranked from Most Vulnerable to Least. Same data as on our Master List but with only the Dem Seats showing. We have 48 Dem seats that are rated Toss-Up or better. We need a net pickup of 39 seats. We have perhaps 2-4 Republican Seats that are at risk at this point so winning something like 45 of the Seats on this list would do the trick.

Rank	District		Democrat	Seat	Republican	Avg.	Experts
1	LA	3	Ravi Sangisetty	Open D	Jeff Landry	2.2	Likely R
2	NY	29	Mathew Zeller	Open D	Tom Reed	2.2	Likely R
3	TN	6	Brett Carter	Open D	Diane Black	2.2	Likely R
4	AR	2	Joyce Elliott	Open D	Tim Griffin	2.0	Likely R
5	KS	3	Stephene Moore	Open D	Kevin Yoder	1.2	Leans R
6	CO	4	Betsy Markey	Incumbent D	Cory Gardner	0.8	Leans R
7	FL	24	Suzanne Kosmas	Incumbent D	Sandy Adams	0.8	Leans R
8	IL	11	Debbie Halvorson	Incumbent D	Adam Kinzinger	0.8	Leans R
9	IN	8	W. Trent Van Haaften	Open D	Dr. Larry Bucshon	0.8	Leans R
10	AR	1	Chad Causey	Open D	Rick Crawford	0.7	Leans R
11	MD	1	Frank Kratovil	Incumbent D	Andy Harris	0.7	Leans R
12	NH	2	Annie Kuster	Open D	Charlie Bass	0.7	Leans R
13	NM	2	Harry Teague	Incumbent D	Steve Pearce	0.7	Leans R
14	OH	1	Steve Driehaus	Incumbent D	Steve Chabot	0.7	Leans R
15	OH	15	Mary Jo Kilroy	Incumbent D	Steve Stivers	0.7	Leans R
16	VA	5	Tom Perriello	Incumbent D	Robert Hurt	0.7	Leans R
17	WA	3	Denny Heck	Open D	Jaime Herrera	0.7	Leans R
18	MI	1	Gary McDowell	Open D	Dr. Daniel Benishek	0.5	Toss-Up
19	MS	1	Travis Childers	Incumbent D	Alan Nunnelee	0.5	Toss-Up
20	ND	AL	Earl Pomeroy	Incumbent D	Rick Berg	0.5	Toss-Up
21	NH	1	Carol Shea-Porter	Incumbent D	Frank Guinta	0.5	Toss-Up
22	PA	11	Paul Kanjorski	Incumbent D	Lou Barletta	0.5	Toss-Up
23	TN	8	Roy Herron	Open D	Stephen Fincher	0.5	Toss-Up
24	TX	17	Chet Edwards	Incumbent D	Bill Flores	0.5	Toss-Up
25	FL	8	Alan Grayson	Incumbent D	Daniel Webster	0.3	Toss-Up
26	MI	7	Mark Schauer	Incumbent D	Tim Walberg	0.3	Toss-Up
27	OH	16	John Boccieri	Incumbent D	Jim Renacci	0.3	Toss-Up
28	PA	7	Bryan Lentz	Open D	Pat Meehan	0.3	Toss-Up
29	WI	7	Julie Lassa	Open D	Sean Duffy	0.3	Toss-Up
30	FL	2	Allen Boyd	Incumbent D	Steve Southerland	0.2	Toss-Up
31	IL	14	Bill Foster	Incumbent D	Randy Hultgren	0.2	Toss-Up
32	IN	9	Baron Hill	Incumbent D	Todd Young	0.2	Toss-Up
33	NV	3	Dina Titus	Incumbent D	Dr. Joe Heck	0.2	Toss-Up
34	SC	5	John Spratt Jr.	Incumbent D	Mick Mulvaney	0.2	Toss-Up
35	VA	2	Glenn Nye	Incumbent D	Scott Rigell	0.2	Toss-Up
36	AZ	1	Ann Kirkpatrick	Incumbent D	Paul Gosar	0.0	Toss-Up
37	PA	3	Kathleen Dahlkemper	Incumbent D	Mike Kelly	0.0	Toss-Up
38	SD	AL	Stephanie Sandlin	Incumbent D	Kristi Noem	0.0	Toss-Up
39	AZ	5	Harold Mitchell	Incumbent D	David Schweikert	-0.2	Toss-Up
40	NY	24	Mike Arcuri	Incumbent D	Richard Hanna	-0.2	Toss-Up
41	WV	1	Mike Oliverio	Open D	David B. McKinley	-0.2	Toss-Up
42	PA	10	Chris Carney	Incumbent D	Tom Marino	-0.3	Toss-Up
43	WI	8	Steve Kagen	Incumbent D	Reid Ribble	-0.3	Toss-Up
44	AL	2	Bobby Bright	Incumbent D	Martha Roby	-0.5	Toss-Up
45	CA	11	Jerry McNerney	Incumbent D	David Harmer	-0.5	Toss-Up
46	GA	8	Jim Marshall	Incumbent D	Austin Scott	-0.5	Toss-Up
47	NC	8	Larry Kissell	Incumbent D	Harold Johnson	-0.5	Toss-Up
48	NY	19	John Hall	Incumbent D	Nan Hayworth	-0.5	Toss-Up
49	AZ	8	Gabrielle Giffords	Incumbent D	Jesse Kelly	-0.7	Leans D
50	IA	3	Leonard Boswell	Incumbent D	Brad Zaun	-0.7	Leans D
51	MA	10	William Keating	Open D	Jeff Perry	-0.7	Leans D
52	PA	8	Patrick Murphy	Incumbent D	Mike Fitzpatrick	-0.7	Leans D
53	TX	23	Ciro Rodriguez	Incumbent D	Quico Canseco	-0.7	Leans D
54	MO	4	Ike Skelton	Incumbent D	Vicky Hartzler	-0.8	Leans D
55	NM	1	Martin Heinrich	Incumbent D	Jon Barela	-0.8	Leans D
56	OH	18	Zach Space	Incumbent D	Bob Gibbs	-0.8	Leans D
57	VA	9	Rick Boucher	Incumbent D	Morgan Griffith	-0.8	Leans D
58	PA	12	Mark Critz	Incumbent D	Timothy Burns	-1.0	Leans D
59	CO	3	John Salazar	Incumbent D	Scott Tipton	-1.0	Leans D
60	ID	1	Walter Minnick	Incumbent D	Raul Labrador	-1.0	Leans D
61	KY	6	Ben Chandler	Incumbent D	Andy Barr	-1.0	Leans D
62	NJ	3	John Adler	Incumbent D	Jon Runyan	-1.0	Leans D
63	NY	1	Tim Bishop	Incumbent D	Randy Altschuler	-1.0	Leans D
64	NY	20	Scott Murphy	Incumbent D	Chris Gibson	-1.0	Leans D
65	NY	23	Bill Owens	Incumbent D	Matt Doheny	-1.0	Leans D
66	OH	13	Betty Sutton	Incumbent D	Tom Ganley	-1.0	Leans D
67	OR	5	Kurt Schrader	Incumbent D	Scott Bruun	-1.0	Leans D
68	IN	2	Joe Donnelly	Incumbent D	Jackie Walorski	-1.2	Leans D
69	TN	4	Lincoln Davis	Incumbent D	Dr. Scott Desjarlais	-1.2	Leans D
70	VA	11	Gerald Connolly	Incumbent D	Keith Fimian	-1.2	Leans D
71	CA	47	Loretta Sanchez	Incumbent D	Van Tran	-1.3	Leans D
72	FL	22	Ron Klein	Incumbent D	Allen West	-1.3	Leans D
73	GA	2	Sanford Bishop	Incumbent D	Mike Keown	-1.3	Leans D
74	MI	9	Gary Peters	Incumbent D	"Rocky" Raczowski	-1.3	Leans D
75	NY	13	Mike McMahon	Incumbent D	Mike Grimm	-1.3	Leans D
76	WA	2	Rick Larsen	Incumbent D	John Koster	-1.3	Leans D
77	IL	17	Phil Hare	Incumbent D	Bobby Schilling	-1.7	Likely D
78	NC	11	Heath Shuler	Incumbent D	Jeff Miller	-1.7	Likely D
79	CT	4	Jim Himes	Incumbent D	Dan Debicella	-1.8	Likely D
80	IL	8	Melissa Bean	Incumbent D	Joe Walsh	-1.8	Likely D
81	NY	25	Dan Maffei	Incumbent D	Ann Marie Buerkle	-1.8	Likely D
82	PA	4	Jason Altmire	Incumbent D	Keith Rothfus	-1.8	Likely D
83	PA	17	Tim Holden	Incumbent D	David Argall	-1.8	Likely D
84	WV	3	Nick Rahall	Incumbent D	"Spike" Maynard	-2.0	Likely D
85	CO	7	Ed Perlmulter	Incumbent D	Ryan Frazier	-2.2	Likely D
86	CT	5	Christopher Murphy	Incumbent D	Sam Caligiuri	-2.2	Likely D
87	MN	1	Tim Walz	Incumbent D	Randy Demmer	-2.3	Likely D

[InterceptPoint]

• There were a total of 23 updates this week to the 99 Congressional races that we believe are truly in play this year.
• 20 were favorable to the Republicans
• 3 were favorable to the Democrats

[padre35]

Do you have an average amount of growth in the lead for GOP candidates?

I’m looking for the trend line to begin appearing right around now and through October.

[kcvl]

We are working on Mike Ross (D-ARK) vs Beth Ann Rankin (R-ARK) - he has someone video tape each of her public appearances

Tuesday, September 14, 2010
Beth Anne Rankin Turns Up The Heat on Ross

http://tinyurl.com/29jq85p

A statement from Jim Harris, Director of Communications for Beth Anne Rankin for Congress:

Career politician Mike Ross is starting to feel the heat for all the liberal votes he has cast while in Congress. That is why he sent out his “myth list” Monday. He hopes voters will not go to the record and see that he is not the conservative as he claims.

With the polls showing he has dropped to 49 percent, he is desperate to muddy the waters

Here are the truths to disprove the “myths” he released:

MYTH: Miss Rankin says Mike Ross has voted for Nancy Pelosi four times, but what she doesn’t say is that Nancy Pelosi was unopposed on the Democratic ballot.

TRUTH: The Speaker of the House sets the congressional agenda for the next two years. The question of who is elected Speaker determines if liberal or conservative legislation gets brought up for votes.

Mike Ross can try to run away from his four votes to make Nancy Pelosi Speaker of the House by saying there wasn’t another Democrat on the ballot. That does not change the fact that Ross voted for Pelosi. It does not change the fact that voting for Ross in November is giving Pelosi another vote for Speaker in January 2011. A vote for Mike Ross is a vote for Nancy Pelosi.

Look at the issues that are important to Arkansans:

Abortion: The National Right to Life Committee rating on Pelosi is zero.

Gay rights: Pelosi opposes a constitutional amendment defining marriage as one-man-one-woman and votes 100 percent of the time with the Human Rights Campaign, the largest national gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender organization.

Illegal immigration: Pelosi opposes building a fence along the border with Mexico and supports amnesty for illegal aliens.

Gun control: Pelosi has an F grade from the National Rifle Association.

Pro-family: The Christian Coalition says Pelosi votes pro-family only 8 percent of the time.

Taxes: Pelosi doesn’t just want the Bush Tax Cuts to expire; she supports repeal of those tax cuts.

If re-elected, Ross will once again vote to put Pelosi in charge of setting the agenda for the House of Representatives. A vote for Ross is a vote for Pelosi.

MYTH: Miss Rankin says Mike Ross has voted with his party 96% of the time, but what she doesn’t say is these totals include procedural votes, such as quorum calls and motions to adjourn, recess or to approve the congressional record.

TRUTH: What Beth Anne really says – and Ross ought to know this since he has someone video tape each of her public appearances – is that from the start of the current Congress until the day she filed, Ross voted with Pelosi 94.6 percent of the time. That is a matter of public record. Ross says he is a conservative Democrat but votes that often with Pelosi. He talks the conservative talk, but doesn’t walk the conservative walk.

MYTH: Miss Rankin says Mike Ross is not a fiscal conservative, despite local, state and national headlines and a voting record to the contrary.

TRUTH: Does he mean votes like the one of April 29, 2009? Ross voted for the original Obama budget. Ross was one of 223 Democrats who voted to pass Senate Concurrent Resolution 13 and all the fiscal irresponsibility it contained.

Maybe he means the Jan. 28, 2009 vote for the stimulus bill where Democrats promised it would keep the national unemployment level under 8 percent. It has since gone above 10 percent and currently is 9.7 percent. The stimulus bill is a failure that ran up the federal debt. Ross voted for the stimulus bill. There are still millions of dollars provided in that bill that are unspent. Expect Ross and other Democrats to be handing that money out in the next seven weeks to try and buy votes with our own tax dollars.

The “Blue Dog” congressman should be guarding the federal budget, but he didn’t bark while the federal debt swelled to a record $13.3 trillion – the real source of our economic woes. You don’t keep a dog who doesn’t bark to alert you to danger. It is time for the voters to send Ross back to Prescott to live under the laws he has voted on the last 10 years.

http://tinyurl.com/29jq85p

[Red Steel]

The huge Tsunami is going to slam the Dems on November 2nd, and the whining lamentations from PMSNBC, cBS, CNN, NBC will be fun to watch. ;-)

[InterceptPoint]

I’m looking for the trend line to begin appearing right around now and through October ...

Political Junky Two will probably post his updates later today. You will see the trend. He calculates the likely Republican Pickup two different ways. It's been steady up for the Republicans. We hope that trend continues.

[chooseascreennamepat]

“The huge Tsunami is going to slam the Dems on November 2nd,”

I believe a number of voters have expressed an incumbent vote but as the Tea Party shows its viability, they will come over to the winning (issue positive) side. There re going to be a number of incredulous Dems come Nov 3!!

[E.G.C.]

BTTT

[Freddd]

Wasn’t Spike a Democrat before he was a Republican?

[johnthebaptistmoore]

What happens, if all of these present political predictions turn out to be overreaching?

[ohioWfan]

Thanks for the updates, InterceptPoint.

Quinnipiac showed both key Ohio races looking good.

This year is going to be a conservative TIDAL WAVE!

[Andy from Chapel Hill]

Check this out:

http://www.dailytarheel.com/index.php/article/2010/09/poll_shows_tie_between_candidates_for_rep_seat#comment8019

NC-4, held by (D) David Price (Sociology professor from Duke) is TIED with (R) BJ Lawson!

I have not seen a single BJ Lawson sign or sticker, so this poll probably captures the anti-Dem incumbent feeling pretty well.

[Charlemagne on the Fox]

Illinois 17 is now listed by the Cook Report as a toss-up. The incumbent Rat is Phil “I Don’t Care About the Constitutuion” Hare. Here a link to the story in Quad City Online: http://qconline.com/archives/qco/display.php?id=510551

[TribalPrincess2U]

What does repeal mean?

Taxes: Pelosi doesn’t just want the Bush Tax Cuts to expire; she supports repeal of those tax cuts.

[MSF BU]

I disagree on MA 10. It is at least a toss-up. This is an excellent summary by the way, you’re doing a good job.

[Hush44]

Thanks for the ping IP

RE: NY20 Chris Gibson
http://www.chrisgibsonforcongress.com/
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dO_SzyqjbG4

Recent poll by Siena has Dem Murphy ahead 17pts.

This is in contrast to the campaign’s internal polling which has Chris down by only 5pts.

The Siena poll did show that 2/3 were unfamiliar with Gibson, who has just started with ads, flyers, etc.

Siena’s track record is kinda iffy. They blew it on the Lazio-Paladino poll by admittedly misjudging the turnout of upstate vs downstate Republicans. What this Murphy-Gibson poll doesn’t say is what modeling Siena is using to judge turnout patterns this year. The Siena poll has Gibson winning just 59 percent of Republicans! That does not seem credible...

In the 2006 race for this district they had incumbent Sweeney(R) up 17 pts at this point in campaign, and he lost to Gillibrand(D) by 6 pts....

Just sayin’... in case you use the local Siena poll in NY20’s profile

Regards, Kate

[mainerforglobalwarming]

I saw a poll in maine last week that Jason Levesque was only 7 points behind mike michaud for Maine’s second district seat. I think the whole key to this race is the Lewiston/Auburn area. It will be tough but I think there is enough voter dissatisfaction with Michaud that he could lose.

[Maine Mariner]

I am a bit surprised about ND. I thought Berg was about 10 points ahead of Pomeroy. Yet this race is considered a toss-up?+

[olrtex]

“The huge Tsunami is going to slam the Dems on November 2nd.”

Maybe, but please don’t get cocky or even mildly complacent. There will be October surprises and energized Marxists galore.

[DeusExMachina05]

ME-2 Should be on that list. The Republican is only 7pts back and this district has been Republican in the past. It is mislabeled in your tier 2 listing as Me-1.

www.levesqueforcongress.com