[InterceptPoint]

I'm posting just the Dems on our list today ranked from Most Vulnerable to Least. Same data as on our Master List but with only the Dem Seats showing. We have 48 Dem seats that are rated Toss-Up or better. We need a net pickup of 39 seats. We have perhaps 2-4 Republican Seats that are at risk at this point so winning something like 45 of the Seats on this list would do the trick.

Rank	District		Democrat	Seat	Republican	Avg.	Experts
1	LA	3	Ravi Sangisetty	Open D	Jeff Landry	2.2	Likely R
2	NY	29	Mathew Zeller	Open D	Tom Reed	2.2	Likely R
3	TN	6	Brett Carter	Open D	Diane Black	2.2	Likely R
4	AR	2	Joyce Elliott	Open D	Tim Griffin	2.0	Likely R
5	KS	3	Stephene Moore	Open D	Kevin Yoder	1.2	Leans R
6	CO	4	Betsy Markey	Incumbent D	Cory Gardner	0.8	Leans R
7	FL	24	Suzanne Kosmas	Incumbent D	Sandy Adams	0.8	Leans R
8	IL	11	Debbie Halvorson	Incumbent D	Adam Kinzinger	0.8	Leans R
9	IN	8	W. Trent Van Haaften	Open D	Dr. Larry Bucshon	0.8	Leans R
10	AR	1	Chad Causey	Open D	Rick Crawford	0.7	Leans R
11	MD	1	Frank Kratovil	Incumbent D	Andy Harris	0.7	Leans R
12	NH	2	Annie Kuster	Open D	Charlie Bass	0.7	Leans R
13	NM	2	Harry Teague	Incumbent D	Steve Pearce	0.7	Leans R
14	OH	1	Steve Driehaus	Incumbent D	Steve Chabot	0.7	Leans R
15	OH	15	Mary Jo Kilroy	Incumbent D	Steve Stivers	0.7	Leans R
16	VA	5	Tom Perriello	Incumbent D	Robert Hurt	0.7	Leans R
17	WA	3	Denny Heck	Open D	Jaime Herrera	0.7	Leans R
18	MI	1	Gary McDowell	Open D	Dr. Daniel Benishek	0.5	Toss-Up
19	MS	1	Travis Childers	Incumbent D	Alan Nunnelee	0.5	Toss-Up
20	ND	AL	Earl Pomeroy	Incumbent D	Rick Berg	0.5	Toss-Up
21	NH	1	Carol Shea-Porter	Incumbent D	Frank Guinta	0.5	Toss-Up
22	PA	11	Paul Kanjorski	Incumbent D	Lou Barletta	0.5	Toss-Up
23	TN	8	Roy Herron	Open D	Stephen Fincher	0.5	Toss-Up
24	TX	17	Chet Edwards	Incumbent D	Bill Flores	0.5	Toss-Up
25	FL	8	Alan Grayson	Incumbent D	Daniel Webster	0.3	Toss-Up
26	MI	7	Mark Schauer	Incumbent D	Tim Walberg	0.3	Toss-Up
27	OH	16	John Boccieri	Incumbent D	Jim Renacci	0.3	Toss-Up
28	PA	7	Bryan Lentz	Open D	Pat Meehan	0.3	Toss-Up
29	WI	7	Julie Lassa	Open D	Sean Duffy	0.3	Toss-Up
30	FL	2	Allen Boyd	Incumbent D	Steve Southerland	0.2	Toss-Up
31	IL	14	Bill Foster	Incumbent D	Randy Hultgren	0.2	Toss-Up
32	IN	9	Baron Hill	Incumbent D	Todd Young	0.2	Toss-Up
33	NV	3	Dina Titus	Incumbent D	Dr. Joe Heck	0.2	Toss-Up
34	SC	5	John Spratt Jr.	Incumbent D	Mick Mulvaney	0.2	Toss-Up
35	VA	2	Glenn Nye	Incumbent D	Scott Rigell	0.2	Toss-Up
36	AZ	1	Ann Kirkpatrick	Incumbent D	Paul Gosar	0.0	Toss-Up
37	PA	3	Kathleen Dahlkemper	Incumbent D	Mike Kelly	0.0	Toss-Up
38	SD	AL	Stephanie Sandlin	Incumbent D	Kristi Noem	0.0	Toss-Up
39	AZ	5	Harold Mitchell	Incumbent D	David Schweikert	-0.2	Toss-Up
40	NY	24	Mike Arcuri	Incumbent D	Richard Hanna	-0.2	Toss-Up
41	WV	1	Mike Oliverio	Open D	David B. McKinley	-0.2	Toss-Up
42	PA	10	Chris Carney	Incumbent D	Tom Marino	-0.3	Toss-Up
43	WI	8	Steve Kagen	Incumbent D	Reid Ribble	-0.3	Toss-Up
44	AL	2	Bobby Bright	Incumbent D	Martha Roby	-0.5	Toss-Up
45	CA	11	Jerry McNerney	Incumbent D	David Harmer	-0.5	Toss-Up
46	GA	8	Jim Marshall	Incumbent D	Austin Scott	-0.5	Toss-Up
47	NC	8	Larry Kissell	Incumbent D	Harold Johnson	-0.5	Toss-Up
48	NY	19	John Hall	Incumbent D	Nan Hayworth	-0.5	Toss-Up
49	AZ	8	Gabrielle Giffords	Incumbent D	Jesse Kelly	-0.7	Leans D
50	IA	3	Leonard Boswell	Incumbent D	Brad Zaun	-0.7	Leans D
51	MA	10	William Keating	Open D	Jeff Perry	-0.7	Leans D
52	PA	8	Patrick Murphy	Incumbent D	Mike Fitzpatrick	-0.7	Leans D
53	TX	23	Ciro Rodriguez	Incumbent D	Quico Canseco	-0.7	Leans D
54	MO	4	Ike Skelton	Incumbent D	Vicky Hartzler	-0.8	Leans D
55	NM	1	Martin Heinrich	Incumbent D	Jon Barela	-0.8	Leans D
56	OH	18	Zach Space	Incumbent D	Bob Gibbs	-0.8	Leans D
57	VA	9	Rick Boucher	Incumbent D	Morgan Griffith	-0.8	Leans D
58	PA	12	Mark Critz	Incumbent D	Timothy Burns	-1.0	Leans D
59	CO	3	John Salazar	Incumbent D	Scott Tipton	-1.0	Leans D
60	ID	1	Walter Minnick	Incumbent D	Raul Labrador	-1.0	Leans D
61	KY	6	Ben Chandler	Incumbent D	Andy Barr	-1.0	Leans D
62	NJ	3	John Adler	Incumbent D	Jon Runyan	-1.0	Leans D
63	NY	1	Tim Bishop	Incumbent D	Randy Altschuler	-1.0	Leans D
64	NY	20	Scott Murphy	Incumbent D	Chris Gibson	-1.0	Leans D
65	NY	23	Bill Owens	Incumbent D	Matt Doheny	-1.0	Leans D
66	OH	13	Betty Sutton	Incumbent D	Tom Ganley	-1.0	Leans D
67	OR	5	Kurt Schrader	Incumbent D	Scott Bruun	-1.0	Leans D
68	IN	2	Joe Donnelly	Incumbent D	Jackie Walorski	-1.2	Leans D
69	TN	4	Lincoln Davis	Incumbent D	Dr. Scott Desjarlais	-1.2	Leans D
70	VA	11	Gerald Connolly	Incumbent D	Keith Fimian	-1.2	Leans D
71	CA	47	Loretta Sanchez	Incumbent D	Van Tran	-1.3	Leans D
72	FL	22	Ron Klein	Incumbent D	Allen West	-1.3	Leans D
73	GA	2	Sanford Bishop	Incumbent D	Mike Keown	-1.3	Leans D
74	MI	9	Gary Peters	Incumbent D	"Rocky" Raczowski	-1.3	Leans D
75	NY	13	Mike McMahon	Incumbent D	Mike Grimm	-1.3	Leans D
76	WA	2	Rick Larsen	Incumbent D	John Koster	-1.3	Leans D
77	IL	17	Phil Hare	Incumbent D	Bobby Schilling	-1.7	Likely D
78	NC	11	Heath Shuler	Incumbent D	Jeff Miller	-1.7	Likely D
79	CT	4	Jim Himes	Incumbent D	Dan Debicella	-1.8	Likely D
80	IL	8	Melissa Bean	Incumbent D	Joe Walsh	-1.8	Likely D
81	NY	25	Dan Maffei	Incumbent D	Ann Marie Buerkle	-1.8	Likely D
82	PA	4	Jason Altmire	Incumbent D	Keith Rothfus	-1.8	Likely D
83	PA	17	Tim Holden	Incumbent D	David Argall	-1.8	Likely D
84	WV	3	Nick Rahall	Incumbent D	"Spike" Maynard	-2.0	Likely D
85	CO	7	Ed Perlmulter	Incumbent D	Ryan Frazier	-2.2	Likely D
86	CT	5	Christopher Murphy	Incumbent D	Sam Caligiuri	-2.2	Likely D
87	MN	1	Tim Walz	Incumbent D	Randy Demmer	-2.3	Likely D

[InterceptPoint]

• There were a total of 23 updates this week to the 99 Congressional races that we believe are truly in play this year.
• 20 were favorable to the Republicans
• 3 were favorable to the Democrats

[kcvl]

We are working on Mike Ross (D-ARK) vs Beth Ann Rankin (R-ARK) - he has someone video tape each of her public appearances

Tuesday, September 14, 2010
Beth Anne Rankin Turns Up The Heat on Ross

http://tinyurl.com/29jq85p

A statement from Jim Harris, Director of Communications for Beth Anne Rankin for Congress:

Career politician Mike Ross is starting to feel the heat for all the liberal votes he has cast while in Congress. That is why he sent out his “myth list” Monday. He hopes voters will not go to the record and see that he is not the conservative as he claims.

With the polls showing he has dropped to 49 percent, he is desperate to muddy the waters

Here are the truths to disprove the “myths” he released:

MYTH: Miss Rankin says Mike Ross has voted for Nancy Pelosi four times, but what she doesn’t say is that Nancy Pelosi was unopposed on the Democratic ballot.

TRUTH: The Speaker of the House sets the congressional agenda for the next two years. The question of who is elected Speaker determines if liberal or conservative legislation gets brought up for votes.

Mike Ross can try to run away from his four votes to make Nancy Pelosi Speaker of the House by saying there wasn’t another Democrat on the ballot. That does not change the fact that Ross voted for Pelosi. It does not change the fact that voting for Ross in November is giving Pelosi another vote for Speaker in January 2011. A vote for Mike Ross is a vote for Nancy Pelosi.

Look at the issues that are important to Arkansans:

Abortion: The National Right to Life Committee rating on Pelosi is zero.

Gay rights: Pelosi opposes a constitutional amendment defining marriage as one-man-one-woman and votes 100 percent of the time with the Human Rights Campaign, the largest national gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender organization.

Illegal immigration: Pelosi opposes building a fence along the border with Mexico and supports amnesty for illegal aliens.

Gun control: Pelosi has an F grade from the National Rifle Association.

Pro-family: The Christian Coalition says Pelosi votes pro-family only 8 percent of the time.

Taxes: Pelosi doesn’t just want the Bush Tax Cuts to expire; she supports repeal of those tax cuts.

If re-elected, Ross will once again vote to put Pelosi in charge of setting the agenda for the House of Representatives. A vote for Ross is a vote for Pelosi.

MYTH: Miss Rankin says Mike Ross has voted with his party 96% of the time, but what she doesn’t say is these totals include procedural votes, such as quorum calls and motions to adjourn, recess or to approve the congressional record.

TRUTH: What Beth Anne really says – and Ross ought to know this since he has someone video tape each of her public appearances – is that from the start of the current Congress until the day she filed, Ross voted with Pelosi 94.6 percent of the time. That is a matter of public record. Ross says he is a conservative Democrat but votes that often with Pelosi. He talks the conservative talk, but doesn’t walk the conservative walk.

MYTH: Miss Rankin says Mike Ross is not a fiscal conservative, despite local, state and national headlines and a voting record to the contrary.

TRUTH: Does he mean votes like the one of April 29, 2009? Ross voted for the original Obama budget. Ross was one of 223 Democrats who voted to pass Senate Concurrent Resolution 13 and all the fiscal irresponsibility it contained.

Maybe he means the Jan. 28, 2009 vote for the stimulus bill where Democrats promised it would keep the national unemployment level under 8 percent. It has since gone above 10 percent and currently is 9.7 percent. The stimulus bill is a failure that ran up the federal debt. Ross voted for the stimulus bill. There are still millions of dollars provided in that bill that are unspent. Expect Ross and other Democrats to be handing that money out in the next seven weeks to try and buy votes with our own tax dollars.

The “Blue Dog” congressman should be guarding the federal budget, but he didn’t bark while the federal debt swelled to a record $13.3 trillion – the real source of our economic woes. You don’t keep a dog who doesn’t bark to alert you to danger. It is time for the voters to send Ross back to Prescott to live under the laws he has voted on the last 10 years.

http://tinyurl.com/29jq85p

[Andy from Chapel Hill]

Check this out:

http://www.dailytarheel.com/index.php/article/2010/09/poll_shows_tie_between_candidates_for_rep_seat#comment8019

NC-4, held by (D) David Price (Sociology professor from Duke) is TIED with (R) BJ Lawson!

I have not seen a single BJ Lawson sign or sticker, so this poll probably captures the anti-Dem incumbent feeling pretty well.

[Maine Mariner]

I am a bit surprised about ND. I thought Berg was about 10 points ahead of Pomeroy. Yet this race is considered a toss-up?+

[Dr. Eckleburg]

Wow. GREAT post. Thanks for all that fine and dandy information.

This country will Remember November!

(That would make a good tag.)

[topher]

There are two articles recently that I think that Republican candidates can push to show the need for change:

Christian Students Suspended for Krispy Kreme Doughnuts with Bible Verses

Students suspended for Bible verses on donuts? Give me a break! The donuts were given to students as well as teachers... I guess if the donuts had quotes from the KORAN, this would have been okay...

Fallout after risque cheer controversy (Cheerleader fired)

The story of the cheerleader is about a six old girl. The little girl was tossed from the cheerleader squad because the parents complained about a risque cheer. Instead of getting rid of risque cheer, the group got rid of the little girl. Maybe this is a group of pedophiles going after little girls in Michigan...

[chilltherats]

KHR doesn’t list Michael Barone as a consultant or contributor. Why isn’t he?

I can’t figure out the KHR site well enough (don’t have time to wade through it right now) to figure out who the 3 (?) or 4 (?) pubs are that KHR now believes may be in trouble.

[BillyBoy]

The well-respected Cook Political Report announced yesterday that they are moving IL-17 into the “toss up” category:

http://illinoisreview.typepad.com/illinoisreview/2010/09/cook-political-report-upgrades-il-17-to-toss-up.html#trackback

Two months ago, the Cook Political Report made its first change to the race, changing it from “Safe Democrat” to “Likely Democrat”. Just a couple weeks ago, they changed it again to “Leans Democrat” Now they’ve changed it a third time to “Toss-Up”.

I think it’s safe to say the “experts” are behind the curve by several weeks. They say IL-11 is “Leans Republican” now when the GOP challenger has been ahead by double-digits for months? The logical conclusion I’d draw is “Likely Republican”.

Probably every race on this list has outdated numbers, and the correct trend is one factor to the right (something rated “Safe Democrat” is actually “Likely Democrat”, something rated “Leans Republican” is actually “Likely Republican”, and so on)

Not trying to overly optimistic for the GOP, just realistic given the data out there.

[Oldeconomybuyer]

Exellent post bump.

[jern]

you need to look at the David Price/BJ Lawson race. It is just as close as the Heath Shuler race.

[Political Junkie Too]

Apologies for the late post. I was away for much of the day.

A mixed week. The "experts" moved forward, but the people did not.

Using the expert ratings above, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP House Seats P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP House Seats EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP House Seats P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 218” – The probability associated with value 218 (the House majority goal).
• ”GOP Gain” – The difference between the GOP EV and the current number of seats (179), rounded down.

Week	GOP House Seats P10	GOP House Seats EV	GOP House Seats P90	Probability of 218	GOP Gain
09-Apr-10	199	204.77	210	0.18%	25
16-Apr-10	199	205.09	211	0.22%	26
22-Apr-10	200	205.28	211	0.37%	26
01-May-10	201	206.22	212	0.73%	27
08-May-10	201	206.33	212	0.66%	27
19-Jun-10	203	208.44	214	2.29%	29
10-Jul-10	203	208.49	214	2.43%	29
17-Jul-10	203	208.49	214	2.34%	29
24-Jul-10	203	209.25	215	3.37%	30
31-Jul-10	203	209.06	215	2.96%	30
07-Aug-10	203	209.15	215	3.11%	30
14-Aug-10	204	209.33	215	3.33%	30
21-Aug-10	204	209.86	216	4.47%	30
28-Aug-10	205	210.91	217	7.03%	31
04-Sep-10	206	211.88	218	10.45%	32
11-Sep-10	208	213.67	220	20.31%	34
18-Sep-10	208	214.1	220	23.14%	35

Alternatively, below is a model that uses the most recent poll instead of the expert assessment, when there is one. I "expire" the poll if it is greater than 60 days old and revert back to the expert assessment until a new poll is taken.

This week, the polls cover 72% of the 99 races being tracked. 71 polls are being used out of 79 that were captured, for a poll utilization of 90%.

Using the expert ratings above and recent poll data, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP House Seats P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP House Seats EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP House Seats P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 218” – The probability associated with value 218 (the House majority goal).
• ”GOP Gain” – The difference between the GOP EV and the current number of seats (179), rounded down.

Week	GOP House Seats P10	GOP House Seats EV	GOP House Seats P90	Probability of 218	GOP Gain
31-Jul-10	207	211.93	217	8.43%	32
07-Aug-10	205	210.66	216	4.51%	31
14-Aug-10	205	210.56	216	4.44%	31
21-Aug-10	208	212.88	218	11.83%	33
28-Aug-10	211	216.78	220	42.58%	37
04-Sep-10	213	217.53	222	50.40%	38
11-Sep-10	214	219.05	224	66.39%	40
18-Sep-10	214	218.54	223	62.30%	39

And in the Senate...

Ohio moves safely towards the GOP as Rob Portman gained another 3% on Lee Fisher. This puts Ohio beyond the margin of error for Republicans. Both Harry Reid and Sharron Angle gained 3% in the polls, continuing to maintain a tie. Republican Ken Buck gained another 1% on incumbent Michael Bennett in Colorado. Both candidates in Pennsylvania gained this week, but Pat Toomey gains 2% more than Joe Sestak. This puts Pennsylvania outside the margin of error, making it SAFE for the Republican. Wisconsin also moved closer to Republicans with Ron Johnson adding to his lead over Russ Feingold.

Benefitting the Democrats this week was Washington state, where incumbent Patty Murray gained significantly on Dino Rossi and retaking the lead. And in Delaware, Christine O'Donnell's win over Mike Castle has propelled Democrat Chris Coons to the lead, switching this race from beyond the margin of error for Republicans to beyond the margin of error for Democrats. Finally, Paul Hodes of New Hampshire gained 6% in the polls against Kelly Ayotte, moving the state back into the margin of error.

Most of Rasmussen's polls have the races outside the margin of error, but for those within the MOE, here are the movements during the past week and the separation in the polls.

• Alaska 1: No poll (R +6%)
• California 1: No poll (R +1%)
• Colorado 2: +1% (R +4%)
• Delaware 1: -22% (R - 11%) - drops out of the margin of error
• New Hampshire 1: -6% (R +7%) - moves within the margin of error
• Illinois 2: No poll (R +2%)
• Nevada 2: +0% (R +0%)
• Ohio 2: +3% (R +8%) - drops out of the margin of error
• Pennsylvania 2: +2% (R +8%) - drops out of the margin of error
• Washington 2: -7% (R -5%)
• West Virginia 1: No poll (R - 5%)
• Wisconsin 1: +6% (R +7%)

The net effect of this week is an expected two seat reduction of gain for Republicans, putting control of the Senate out of reach again.

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP Senate Seats P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP Senate Seats EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP Senate Seats P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 51” – The probability associated with value 51 (the Senate majority goal).
• ”GOP Gain” – The difference between the GOP EV and the current number of seats (41), rounded down.

Week	GOP Senate Seats P10	GOP Senate Seats EV	GOP Senate Seats P90	Probability of 51	GOP Gain
17-Jul-10	47	48.84	50	6.95%	7
24-Jul-10	47	48.95	50	7.69%	7
31-Jul-10	47	48.18	50	1.29%	7
07-Aug-10	47	48.13	50	1.46%	7
14-Aug-10	47	48.46	50	2.92%	7
21-Aug-10	47	48.69	50	3.05%	7
28-Aug-10	47	48.86	50	5.88%	7
04-Sep-10	48	49.21	51	14.19%	8
11-Sep-10	49	50.08	52	37.67%	9
18-Sep-10	48	48.95	50	3.67%	7

Based on this week's movements, the challenge has been met and the race is on.

-PJ

[Jim W N]

Bottom line, if leaning R's and D's go that way and toss-up goes, say, 50-50, what would the new total count be in the House?

What about the Senate?

And what would it take to overturn an ObamaNazi veto WHEN, not if, these guys

1) Make the "Bush" tax cuts permant
2) Overturn CommieCare

[Political Junkie Too]

This table is a breakout of each expert's trend of assessments.

Week	Sabato	CQP	EP.Com	Cook	Rothenberg	RCP
08-May-10	205.13	202.9	206.85	206.76	203.1	213.38
19-Jun-10	207.51	205.63	210.49	207.64	203.35	216.33
10-Jul-10	207.87	205.64	209.4	208.16	203.99	214.37
17-Jul-10	207.4	205.12	210.12	207.63	203.51	213.9
24-Jul-10	207.28	205.26	210.33	208.03	207.38	213.83
31-Jul-10	206.71	204.67	211.75	208.78	207.22	215.1
07-Aug-10	206.75	204.65	212	208.77	207.19	215.35
14-Aug-10	206.78	204.81	212.86	208.97	207.23	215.49
21-Aug-10	206.7	204.78	213.14	210.76	207.19	216.42
28-Aug-10	206.75	208.66	214.13	210.74	207.62	217.58
04-Sep-10	210.14	208.68	215.4	211.8	207.53	218.1
11-Sep-10	211.15	209.09	216.53	214.14	210.88	220.32
18-Sep-10	211.34	209.23	217.05	214.66	211.98	220.5

-PJ

[samiam1972]

I wish there was more hype about Jacob Turk running against Emanuel Cleaver in Missouri. I realize there’s not much hope but it sure would make me happy to see Rev. Cleaver go away.

[Tzimisce]

Hope Alan Grayson CRIES when they throw him out of office!!!

[MacMattico]

Just personal observation—

NY 23 : Got a knock on the door from two Bill Owens “volunteers” today, told them that if they or their campaign had actually read the e-mail I sent to Owens months ago, they would not have put me on their list of potential supporters (that’s who they said they were stopping out to “chat” with) because I had specifically said if he voted for Obamacare no one in my extended family would ever even consider voting for him. They admitted they were hearing a lot of this type of thing! Their body language told me they didn’t like what they were hearing today.

NY 25: Dan Maffei’s commercials are awful. The one’s he is actually in he looks like a clueless fat faced kid with a dumb look on his face. He talks about policies he supports that are not popular around here. It’s like free campaign commercials for his opponent. He didn’t win by much the last time around, I don’t believe.

Living on the boarder of NY 23 and 25 (I vote in 23), I don’t sense any enthusiasm for either Dem, both Republican candidates can win if they get out there and push fiscally conservative ideas. We don’t like Obamacare, bailouts or cap and trade.

In NY 23 people like to see their candidate face to face and Bill Owens has been attemting to cultivate that support with face to face or seregate visits. Maffei has pockets of democrats throughout Onondaga county that are very loyal. If the Republican candidates get out there, get seen, and point out the distinct differences in policy, they will win.

[Lexinom]

*

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks InterceptPoint.

[Yaelle]

This is a very interesting look at the “trees.”

Everyone remember: the “forest” is what happens after we win the House. Elected Republicans have to be strong emotionally to resist Junior High Peer Pressure to suck up to liberal- and media-created issues.

They will all be tested. Are they going to go with “the popular cool guy” (whatever issue the liberals and their media create) or stand up for the values that got them into these cool desks?????? Getting the “trees” in place is far easier than having them behave as one strong forest.

(I will stop now before I throw in a third unrelated analogy)

[mlo]

"This skews are index."

It's "our" index.