[Hush44]

Thanks for the ping IP

RE: NY20 Chris Gibson
http://www.chrisgibsonforcongress.com/
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dO_SzyqjbG4

Recent poll by Siena has Dem Murphy ahead 17pts.

This is in contrast to the campaign’s internal polling which has Chris down by only 5pts.

The Siena poll did show that 2/3 were unfamiliar with Gibson, who has just started with ads, flyers, etc.

Siena’s track record is kinda iffy. They blew it on the Lazio-Paladino poll by admittedly misjudging the turnout of upstate vs downstate Republicans. What this Murphy-Gibson poll doesn’t say is what modeling Siena is using to judge turnout patterns this year. The Siena poll has Gibson winning just 59 percent of Republicans! That does not seem credible...

In the 2006 race for this district they had incumbent Sweeney(R) up 17 pts at this point in campaign, and he lost to Gillibrand(D) by 6 pts....

Just sayin’... in case you use the local Siena poll in NY20’s profile

Regards, Kate

[InterceptPoint]

I reluctantly posted that poll at KHR. But we're trying to keep a "We Report, You Decide" approach to the polls even though we know some of them are going to be real outliers.

Click on KHR Polls and you will see the Sienna poll right at the top of the list. Click the sort button to look at the polls in District Order.

[gleeaikin]

The November outcome has many unknowns. To what extent will Dems get out their vote? Will moderates and independents who helped give Obama his landslide stay home, or will they be so freaked out by the Tea Party people that they will vote in droves? Will the Bush tax cuts expire, will they be saved, or will only the middle class tax cuts be saved? Some TP candidates are calling for getting rid of Social Security. Where would a lot of people be if they had done that during the Bush years and everyone had put their money in the stock market and housing? How many remember that possibility with a shudder? Lots of questions there, November will certainly be an interesting month.

I wish I could see the chart at the top with Republicans indicated as TP or RHINO, or in between.

[lowtaxsmallgov]

The Siena poll is the most bizarre set of numbers I have seen in any kind of poll all cycle. It absolutely defies every other poll in the country...
California - GOP tied for Senate, running away with Gov
Ohio - GOP running away with Senate and Gov
Pennsylvania - GOP running away with Senate and Gov
New Hampshire - GOP holding Senate, reclaiming both House seats

The poll makes no sense whatsoever - did Siena outsource the project to Research-2000?