I am a bit surprised about ND. I thought Berg was about 10 points ahead of Pomeroy. Yet this race is considered a toss-up?+
The polls lead the "Experts". They sit on the data for awhile before making their moves. If the polls are good and stay good then the rating of the race will improve. IL-11 is a good example. Good polls over a period of time and it moves from Toss-Up to Leans R. There has been a slow but steady progression in that direction for the races on our list.