[InterceptPoint]

• There were a total of 23 updates this week to the 99 Congressional races that we believe are truly in play this year.
• 20 were favorable to the Republicans
• 3 were favorable to the Democrats

[padre35]

Do you have an average amount of growth in the lead for GOP candidates?

I’m looking for the trend line to begin appearing right around now and through October.

[Red Steel]

The huge Tsunami is going to slam the Dems on November 2nd, and the whining lamentations from PMSNBC, cBS, CNN, NBC will be fun to watch. ;-)

[E.G.C.]

BTTT

[johnthebaptistmoore]

What happens, if all of these present political predictions turn out to be overreaching?

[ohioWfan]

Thanks for the updates, InterceptPoint.

Quinnipiac showed both key Ohio races looking good.

This year is going to be a conservative TIDAL WAVE!

[Charlemagne on the Fox]

Illinois 17 is now listed by the Cook Report as a toss-up. The incumbent Rat is Phil “I Don’t Care About the Constitutuion” Hare. Here a link to the story in Quad City Online: http://qconline.com/archives/qco/display.php?id=510551

[MSF BU]

I disagree on MA 10. It is at least a toss-up. This is an excellent summary by the way, you’re doing a good job.

[Hush44]

Thanks for the ping IP

RE: NY20 Chris Gibson
http://www.chrisgibsonforcongress.com/
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dO_SzyqjbG4

Recent poll by Siena has Dem Murphy ahead 17pts.

This is in contrast to the campaign’s internal polling which has Chris down by only 5pts.

The Siena poll did show that 2/3 were unfamiliar with Gibson, who has just started with ads, flyers, etc.

Siena’s track record is kinda iffy. They blew it on the Lazio-Paladino poll by admittedly misjudging the turnout of upstate vs downstate Republicans. What this Murphy-Gibson poll doesn’t say is what modeling Siena is using to judge turnout patterns this year. The Siena poll has Gibson winning just 59 percent of Republicans! That does not seem credible...

In the 2006 race for this district they had incumbent Sweeney(R) up 17 pts at this point in campaign, and he lost to Gillibrand(D) by 6 pts....

Just sayin’... in case you use the local Siena poll in NY20’s profile

Regards, Kate

[Grams A]

These are so helpful and I share them with our local Pubbie group - they are starting to get involved in races outside our State. Have one member who is trying to get more support for Jessie Kelly in AZ - has relative who lives there who thinks this is doable. Several of us sending financial support. Need to get all the R’s in this state we can to counter McCain. Thanks for your hard work.

[davidosborne]

Great work ! keep me pinged to your postings

[Crichton]

Tier 2 Races:

WI-3: The Republican nominee is Dan Kapanke, who defeated Bruce Evers in the recent primary.
http://www.kapankeforcongress.com/

ME-2: The 2nd district is the Michaud-Levesque race. Pingree-Scontras is the 1st district. Both are potentially competitive. Not sure why Charlie Cook includes one (ME-1) and not the other.

Overall:

I'm surprised that you don't have NC-7 on the list yet - McIntyre vs Pantano. Pantano is a Young Gun and the NRCC has reserved over $100k in advertising for the district. Third party organizations are going in for Pantano as well.

[SharpRightTurn]

BTTT

[1035rep]

Excellent! Thanks for the ping.

[Blackhawk]

Very nice analysis. However, am I right in that this is based on polls and surveys? If it only depends on how people vote, then according to your chart we have no chance to take the House.

How people will vote is not the issue. How much the dems cheat is the deciding factor. Many of these races are close and it is my belief that the amount of cheating will hold those seats for the dems.

Just being pragmatic and praying that I am wrong.

[counterpunch]

#60 ID-1 / Democrat Walter Minnick vs Republican Raul Labrador
-1.0 / Leans D

Boise Tea Party endorsed Raul Labrador should be running away with this race, but the national Tea Party Express endorsed Minnick some months back in a typical Washington politics move to give itself ‘bi-partisan’ cover.

Because of this, the waters in Idaho district 1 have been significantly muddied. The Democrats may keep this seat, and Pelosi may keep the Speaker’s gavel, thanks to the Tea Party express.

Minnick did not seek Tea Party support, and took the opportunity to reject the Tea Party Express endorsement and then ridicule the Tea Party movement.

Please, contact the Tea Party Express and tell them that if they can’t get behind the true Tea Party candidate in the race, at least stop supporting the Pelosi supporting Democrat.

www.teapartyexpress.org
CONTACT: Levi Russell at (509) 979-6615 or via email at: Levi@FrontLineStrat.com

[Recon Dad]

I've been following your posts every week and have waited for for some update on the Pantano/McIntyre 7th District race in North Carolina.
Pantano is the hardest worker I've ever seen I would hope he can take out McIntyre, what's the word?

[RedMDer]

Andy Harris can beat the rat Kratovil but he could use some help.

Please donate.

http://www.andyharris.com/

[SevenMinusOne]

Is this of all seats in the House? If so, we are basically looking at only having a solid pick-up of 17 at this time?? That is well short of our magic number...

[potlatch]

[20 were favorable to the Republicans]

How great is that!! Thanks IP.

[Alamo-Girl]

Thanks for the ping!