Posted on 11/16/2009 7:22:32 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
After the New England Patriots disasterous decision Sunday night not to punt on fourth down with the ball on the Indianapolis Colts' 28-yard line, former Massachusetts Governor, Mitt Romney, had every right to be ticked off. Especially considering that the Pats had the lead with little more than 2 minutes left in the game. Is it possible that the team's supposedly brilliant coach, Bill Belichick, got confused and thought the Manning brother waiting patiently on the opposing sidelines was Eli and not Peyton? Whatever the case, the Colts went on to win the game with 13 seconds left in the game.
But that fit of pique can't compare with the frustration Romney must feel watching the "All Sarah, all the time" frenzy in advance of the official launch date of Going Rogue, Sarah Palin's tell-all account of the 2008 presidential campaign. On paper, it should be a no-brainer. Here's Romney, with that ponderously impressive resume - CEO of the management consultancy Bain & Company, co-founder of private equity investment firm Bain Capital, CEO of the Salt Lake Organizing Committee for the 2002 Winter Olympics and governor of the Bay State from 2003 to 2007 - and yet he can't get the time of day. Maybe that will change by next year, but for the moment, north to south, east to west, the Republican faithful only have eyes for the Thriller from Wasilla.
Which is all the more fascinating because a bevy of new polls suggest that Palin's guaranteed to lose if she becomes the Republican Party's nominee in 2012. A CBS poll found that just 23% of Americans now hold a favorable view of the former Alaska Governor and two in three Americans would not like to see Palin run for president against Barack Obama.(continued)
(Excerpt) Read more at cbsnews.com ...
Not only did he get the first sentence wrong, but the writer apparently doesn't remember both Mannings beat the Patsies on the way to Super Bowl titles--in successive years, no less.
Let’s see, if I had to find a synonym for “unelectable” it’d be...Mitt Romney! Go away, Mr. Plastic!
Palin ‘12!
First of all it’s not the republicans who like Sarah. It’s conservatives and anyone, especially Rino Romney, should know the difference.
Second, it’s obvious CBS would love to see Romney get the nomination.
Does the mainstream left wing media not understand that we’re on to them? If they’re for someone, we must be against them. If they’re against someone, we must be for them.
“The first sentence is wrong. Romney grew up in MI. He couldn’t care less about the Pats. Stopped reading right there.”
It doesn’t say he grew up in Massachussettes, just that he was governor. Which means that in the very least he probably wore a Pats cap for the cameras at some point. But it doesn’t really matter, does it? It was just a rhetorical device.
Is he a Lions fan because he grew up in Michigan? Not necessarily. Would he be a Pats fan if he grew up in Massachusettes? Not necessarily. There is a link between him and the Pats, though. They both have something to do with Massachusettes. It doesn’t make for a Shakespearean analogy, but it’s good enough for a network news story.
Not sure I agree completely about the religion issue. I’d almost vote for anyone who slammed islam for what it is...a terrorist organization. I said “almost”.
I was a Fred head but didn’t give him any money, my neice donated 250 to him......still like Fred......
If he’s the gop nominee in 2012 he’ll get less than 30% of the vote. A third party will get 30% and O will get 40% and enough blue states to make a deal with Romney and the Rinos.
The gop best get back to Reagan conservatism or it will be kaput.
“Belicheck is the only coach in the NFL who realizes that is the proper call. “
I can’t prove it’s right, but it definitely could be. Not that you’d know it from the commentary in print and on the radio.
“’After the New England Patriots disasterous decision Sunday night not to punt on fourth down with the ball on the Indianapolis Colts’ 28-yard line’
‘Belicheck is the only coach in the NFL who realizes that is the proper call.’”
What NFL are you talking about? It’s a statistical no-brainer. Compare the likelihood of successful 4th down conversions (low) with the likelihood of scoring starting from the opponent’s 28-yard line (high). Not a good risk/benefit relationship. Then compare the the average landing zone of punts kickied from your own 28-yard line. I don’t know what that is, but let’s assume the average NFL punt is 40 yards. Calculate the likelihood of scoring starting from your own 32-yard line. Obviously, it’ll be worse than what you can expect from the opponents’ 28.
You are looking in a mirror and describing what you see.
That I simply can't believe.
What I can't believe is that right wing media doesn't counter biased polls like this and with their own polls that come up with the exact opposite results to discredit CBS and the rest of the marxist propagandists.
So a bunch of minor league goebbels wannabe's be at CBS, the network that used forged documents to try to influence a presidential election, come out with some trumped up bogus poll and we're supposed to wail and gnash our teeth and wallow in self pity and cry out its not fair?
What about fighting back?
It’s waaaaaay too early to read anything significant out of polls for an election 3 years away other than name/face recognition.
I can state with certainty that no matter who might be running with Romney in the 2012 general election, I WILL NOT vote for him and there’s nothing he can do to change his record or my mind. Nothing. I don’t trust him at all.
Likelihood of successful fourth down - my guess is 70%, game over.
Unsuccessful fourth down - 30%. If that happens, the Colts still have to get a touchdown from the 28 - let’s be generous to you and call it 90%. Some of the time, they will score quickly and the Patriots will have a chance to score again. Call those 25% and 25%. The Pats win 30% x 10% plus 30% x 90% x 25% x 25% = 9.25%. That’s a total of 79%
Now compare that to punting. If I’m going to give the Colts a 90% chance of scoring from the 28, what’s the chance they score after a punt and have about 40 more yards to go? Remember, there’s two minutes left, they have their time-outs and they have Peyton Manning. That chance must be around 60%. And if they do score, it’s going to be slowly, so there’s little chance the Patriots can come back.
One other thing to keep in mind. Manning has four downs to work with. Unless he throws a pick, he’s likely to get the touchdown, no matter where he starts the possession.
Ah, I thought that sounded strange. Field goal or go for it is most reasonable on the opposing team's 28 yard line (I'd be conservative and go for the field goal, that's only a 45 yard attempt). Not punting on your own 28 sounds suicidal.
LOL! You are on a roll tonight.
The latest Rasmussen polls show remarkable numbers for Governor Palin and just remarkable numbers in general. There's a landslide out there just waiting to happen if someone can pick up the ball and run with it - 66% of likely voters are angry with current government policies.
“Likelihood of successful fourth down - my guess is 70%, game over.”
That 70% sounds high, but I’ve been thinking about it. That “game over” part is significant. If the Pats convert, the Colts have absolutely no chance of winning. If not, they have whatever chance they have, and it being the Colts, that has to be a pretty high percentage, be it from the Pats’ 28 or the Colts’ 32.
The more I think about it, the greater the likelihood of Manning scoring from either position is actually MORE of a reason to go for it on fourth down. It’s kind of counterintuitive, but the better the Colts are, the more you’d want to stop the game right there.
Of course, this all depends on what the conversion percentage is. But it’s got to be easier to go two yards than it is to go 28 or 68.
In short, you may be right. I think I was infected by 4th-down-phobia. Which is weird, because I’m always thiking teams are pussies for punting.
“One other thing to keep in mind. Manning has four downs to work with. Unless he throws a pick, he’s likely to get the touchdown, no matter where he starts the possession.”
Yes, and the more I think about it, like I said, the more this is a reason to go for it. The better chance the Colts have, the more you’d want to risk it all on gaining two measely yards. The only thing I can think of now that could upset things is whether the statistical likelihood of converting 4th downs when the defense knows the game is on the line is perversely different from all other conditions. But I doubt it is.
By the way, I was thinking the Pats were stupid not to let the Colts score right away once they got down to the 1-yard line, or whatever it was. Come on, they’re gonna score. Let them, and give yourself a chance afterwards. They could have had a lot more time than 9 seconds to play with on the other end.
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