“’After the New England Patriots disasterous decision Sunday night not to punt on fourth down with the ball on the Indianapolis Colts’ 28-yard line’
‘Belicheck is the only coach in the NFL who realizes that is the proper call.’”
What NFL are you talking about? It’s a statistical no-brainer. Compare the likelihood of successful 4th down conversions (low) with the likelihood of scoring starting from the opponent’s 28-yard line (high). Not a good risk/benefit relationship. Then compare the the average landing zone of punts kickied from your own 28-yard line. I don’t know what that is, but let’s assume the average NFL punt is 40 yards. Calculate the likelihood of scoring starting from your own 32-yard line. Obviously, it’ll be worse than what you can expect from the opponents’ 28.
Likelihood of successful fourth down - my guess is 70%, game over.
Unsuccessful fourth down - 30%. If that happens, the Colts still have to get a touchdown from the 28 - let’s be generous to you and call it 90%. Some of the time, they will score quickly and the Patriots will have a chance to score again. Call those 25% and 25%. The Pats win 30% x 10% plus 30% x 90% x 25% x 25% = 9.25%. That’s a total of 79%
Now compare that to punting. If I’m going to give the Colts a 90% chance of scoring from the 28, what’s the chance they score after a punt and have about 40 more yards to go? Remember, there’s two minutes left, they have their time-outs and they have Peyton Manning. That chance must be around 60%. And if they do score, it’s going to be slowly, so there’s little chance the Patriots can come back.
One other thing to keep in mind. Manning has four downs to work with. Unless he throws a pick, he’s likely to get the touchdown, no matter where he starts the possession.
Dozens of people did that....and it came Belicheck's descions came out on top every time. Here are a few...
Dozens of people did that....and it came Belicheck's descions came out on top every time. Here are a few...