What NFL are you talking about? It’s a statistical no-brainer. Compare the likelihood of successful 4th down conversions (low) with the likelihood of scoring starting from the opponent’s 28-yard line (high). Not a good risk/benefit relationship. Then compare the the average landing zone of punts kickied from your own 28-yard line. I don’t know what that is, but let’s assume the average NFL punt is 40 yards. Calculate the likelihood of scoring starting from your own 32-yard line. Obviously, it’ll be worse than what you can expect from the opponents’ 28. Dozens of people did that....and it came Belicheck's descions came out on top every time. Here are a few...
Belichick, Peyton Manning, and 4th down decisions
Surprise! Belichick Going For It Was Smart Move
“Dozens of people did that....and it came Belicheck’s descions came out on top every time. Here are a few...”
You should check out posts 58 and 59. I pretty much reversed myself once I looked at it from another angle. I think the Pats made the right call. Where they screwed up was on the play-call (did he have to catch the ball that close to the line?), burning their timeouts so that they couldn’t challenge the call, and not letting the Colts score quicker (wasted a full minute stopping them on the one-yard line).