Likelihood of successful fourth down - my guess is 70%, game over.
Unsuccessful fourth down - 30%. If that happens, the Colts still have to get a touchdown from the 28 - let’s be generous to you and call it 90%. Some of the time, they will score quickly and the Patriots will have a chance to score again. Call those 25% and 25%. The Pats win 30% x 10% plus 30% x 90% x 25% x 25% = 9.25%. That’s a total of 79%
Now compare that to punting. If I’m going to give the Colts a 90% chance of scoring from the 28, what’s the chance they score after a punt and have about 40 more yards to go? Remember, there’s two minutes left, they have their time-outs and they have Peyton Manning. That chance must be around 60%. And if they do score, it’s going to be slowly, so there’s little chance the Patriots can come back.
One other thing to keep in mind. Manning has four downs to work with. Unless he throws a pick, he’s likely to get the touchdown, no matter where he starts the possession.
“Likelihood of successful fourth down - my guess is 70%, game over.”
That 70% sounds high, but I’ve been thinking about it. That “game over” part is significant. If the Pats convert, the Colts have absolutely no chance of winning. If not, they have whatever chance they have, and it being the Colts, that has to be a pretty high percentage, be it from the Pats’ 28 or the Colts’ 32.
The more I think about it, the greater the likelihood of Manning scoring from either position is actually MORE of a reason to go for it on fourth down. It’s kind of counterintuitive, but the better the Colts are, the more you’d want to stop the game right there.
Of course, this all depends on what the conversion percentage is. But it’s got to be easier to go two yards than it is to go 28 or 68.
In short, you may be right. I think I was infected by 4th-down-phobia. Which is weird, because I’m always thiking teams are pussies for punting.
“One other thing to keep in mind. Manning has four downs to work with. Unless he throws a pick, he’s likely to get the touchdown, no matter where he starts the possession.”
Yes, and the more I think about it, like I said, the more this is a reason to go for it. The better chance the Colts have, the more you’d want to risk it all on gaining two measely yards. The only thing I can think of now that could upset things is whether the statistical likelihood of converting 4th downs when the defense knows the game is on the line is perversely different from all other conditions. But I doubt it is.
By the way, I was thinking the Pats were stupid not to let the Colts score right away once they got down to the 1-yard line, or whatever it was. Come on, they’re gonna score. Let them, and give yourself a chance afterwards. They could have had a lot more time than 9 seconds to play with on the other end.
...Especially since a field-goal wins the game.