Posted on 10/25/2008 5:02:33 AM PDT by HalfFull
WASHINGTON, DC: On presidential election day, November 4, all eyes will be on what exit polls say voters did, and analysts fear they could give a rosier view of support for Democrat Barack Obama than reality.
The combination of the exclusion of early voting, and the greater tendency of young voters--more often Obama supporters--to take part in the surveys, could skew the results of the exit polls, which, taken just as voters leave polling booths, are the closely-watched first indicators of how the election is going.
In a National Journal article in March, Mark Blumenthal of pollster.com stressed that overestimation of Obama support was already seen in Democratic primaries earlier in the year.
In 18 of 20 states he reviewed, votes in favour of Obama, who at that time was duelling Hillary Clinton for the party's White House nomination, were overestimated by an average of seven points.
The gap was likely due to the fact that many of Obama's most fervent supporters, often younger, more politically active and in many cases better educated than Clinton's, were more inclined to respond to exit polls.
The same thing could happen on November 4 if Obama voters turn out to be markedly younger than those of his Republican rival John McCain.
According to a recent Gallup poll, 65 percent of voters aged 18-29 plan to vote for Obama, against 31 percent for McCain.
Meanwhile, pollsters themselves tend to be on the younger side.
"One problem (with polls) has been that interviewers tend to be young people, and older voters are less likely to respond to young pollsters--if most of the interviewers this year are again young people, that might lead to some overstatement of the Obama vote," said Herb Weisberg, a professor of political science at Ohio State University.
Weisberg also stressed the unknown factor: ballots cast before November 4--which researchers say could total as much as one-third of the national total.
"Another problem will be that many votes are being cast absentee (early) this year. Exit polls can't pick up these votes," Weisberg said.
"Some pollsters will undoubtedly do phone surveys the weekend before the election to ask people if they've already voted and how they've voted, as a means of trying to capture this effect."
Exit polls have been conducted since 2003 by the National Election Pool (NEP), a consortium of ABC News, Associated Press, CBS News, CNN, Fox News and NBC News, which uses the Edison media research and Mitofsky International to carry out the post-voting voter questioning across the country.
On November 4, the Edison/Mitofsky team plans to carry out more than 100,000 interviews of voters at more than 1,000 US polling stations.
Concerns about the accuracy of this particular type of polling are nothing new.
In the 2004 presidential election, early exit polls gave a slight advantage to Democrat John Kerry, prompting some premature celebrating by Democrats and hand-wringing by Republicans, only to have George W. Bush eventually win the White House.
"People ought to be very skeptical of leaked (exit poll) results they might see between 5:00 pm Eastern Time (2200 GMT) and when the polls close on November 4," Blumenthal said. (AFP)
Ya think? Make that by lunch time, Eastern Time.
We all need to get the word out. The MSM favorite scheme is to suppress the vote in key western states by calling eastern states early. This tactic will be worse than ever in 2008.
Exit polls should be banned full stop. they create nothing but havoc and they mean nothing, only the final result means anything.
Agreed - you would think after the ‘04 fiasco they would have done something to not allow exit polling. This year it is not only irresponsible it could be extremely dangerous, for if the exit polls show an Obama win but then he loses the rioting and bloodshed will be out of control.
There should be a total ban on any polling data, early results, or prognostication on election day until the last polls are closed. Just STFU about it.
You would think they would have learned their lesson after the exit poll fiasco of 2004.
exactly, just go vote, don’t speculate and wait for the results but oh no, big media wouldnt want that, it would be more fun if we could watch the votes coming in, watchng them see saw without someone calling it 2 seconds after it closes, that annoys me.
Man, I never thought about that in terms of the 3 western swing states. The msm will be doing anything they can to make sure McPalin supporters are deflated by results in the east. Disconcerting.
He said that evidence shows that Republicans were more likely to refuse than Democrats.
Barone stated that this applies to all polls, but especially to exit polls.
I’m convinced Obama’s in for a rude awakening on Nov 4th that he’s not that popular after all.
Plus Bush almost lost Florida to Gore because the MSM called it for Gore early. As a result, some in the conservative pan handle did not vote (Central time zone area). I guarantee MSM stooges will call Florida for Obama before the polls close in that area.
It is just so hard not to lie to them, I love knowing they just shake their heads for months wondering what happened.
I cant see that working again, Florida voters wised up to that tactic in 2004, when the pollsters tried it again by releasing exit polls during the day in 2004 saying Kerry was winning Florida by 5%.
Hope you are right.
YOU DON’T SAY!!!!!
In Florida in 2000 the exit polls weren't that far off as it turned out. But in 2004, the exit polls were calling Flordia for Kerry almost from the get-go and he lost it by several points.
If they ask "Why?", I'll explain:
"Because the capitalists pigs must all be brought down by the fires of the new socialist revolution!!!"
Yep, that's what I'll say...
Then I'll look hard at the nearest elderly Boca couple walking in to vote and tell them "You're at the top of Obama's list...right along with Israel!" and give a little Hitler salute.
(I just threw up in my mouth a little...)
Ok, so I won't do this. But I have to ask, just what in heaven's name are people thinking if they vote for Obama?!? What do they expect will happen and can they be so stupid to by the same lies that Lenin, Hitler and Chavez used to gain power?
McCain needs to get ahead of the groove and make sure people know not to trust pollsters and media on election day and just get out and vote and wait for the results.
If I remember correctly, didn’t all “news stations” call FL for Kerry, except Fox? They then had to retract it, lol. I remember laughing at those fools!
Zogby on CNN in 2004 as soon as the polls closed announced Kerry as the winner of Florida by 5%. I never laughed so hard when the results came in.
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