Posted on 01/19/2008 6:31:49 AM PST by Forgiven_Sinner
I started a thread on Who will Drop Out When where I predicted who would win place and show in each primary up to FL. On this key primary weekend, I thought I'd review my results and make new predictions. I'll leave the old polls in place to show far off they can be.
I was partially right and partially wrong. The amazing thing is, no major candidate has dropped out yet. Rudy is in the most trouble of all of them, although in terms of funding, Huckabee has the least.
The old polls and final results are from Real Clear Politics. Old poll: IA: 12/14 - 12/27
Huckabee Romney McCain Thompson Giuliani Paul Spread 29.0 26.0 11.5 9.3 8.3 5.5 Huckabee +3.0strategic Vision (R) 12/26 - 12/27
Huckabee Romney Thompson 29 27 14 15 4 4
My prediction
Looks like Thompson will sneak into third. Huck or Romney will win. I bet on Romney, who has more "boots on the ground".
Final results:
Huckabee Romney McCain Thompson Paul Giuliani 34.3 25.3 13.1 13.4 10.0 3.5
Result: Huckabee had more support than I expected. He still does. His support makes me wonder about the intelligence of my fellow evangelicals.
Old poll: NH: 12/16 - 12/26
Romney McCain Giuliani Huckabee Paul Thompson 30.6 25.0 14.2 10.6 6.4 3.6
My prediction: Thompson will only get fifth, I think. But Huck will probably get only fourth. Romney will probably win, getting a boost from IA.
Final Results - McCain Romney Huckabee Giuliani Paul Thompson 37.0 31.5 11.2 8.5 7.7 1.2
Result: Wrong, wrong. McCain won, followed by Mitt. Fred got sixth, behind Paul. I didn't account for Demos voting as independents.
Old Poll: MI: RCP Average 11/30 - 12/19 Romney Huckabee McCain Giuliani Thompson Paul 19.8 18.8 13.0 12.5 6.5 4.3
Prediction: Romney will probably win. Huck may be fading by this point. McCain may get a boost from NH. Giuliani may be fading. We'll see if Fred's campaign in MI will help. He should get at least 4th, maybe third if Huck fades.
Final Results: Romney McCain Huckabee Paul Thompson Giuliani 38.9 29.7 16.1 6.3 3.7 2.8 Romney +9.2
My best prediction yet--Romney won, McCain got a boost, and Huckabee and Rudy faded.
Old Poll: NV: RCP Average 11/16 - 12/06 Giuliani Romney Huckabee Thompson McCain Paul 23.7 23.7 15.3 9.7 7.3 5.0 Tie
Old prediction: Romney will probably win. Thompson should overtake Huck for third. If Rudy fades, Fred may get 2nd.
Latest poll: Romney McCain Huckabee Giuliani Thompson Paul 25.7 20.7 12.3 11.7 10.7 7.3
Latest prediction: Fred still has a chance for 3rd. I'm amazed people are still voting for McCain. This is primary is closed--only republicans. I predict Romney, McCain, Fred, Huck, and Rudy
Old poll: SC: 12/09 - 12/18 Huckabee Romney Thompson McCain Giuliani Paul 25.8 19.3 13.5 13.0 12.8 6.3
Old prediction: The overall strategy is to do well in IA, survive until SC and win there. The Huck boomlet will fade and Fred ought to pick up those voters. He should also pick up Rudy voters, and eventually McCain voters. That should be enough to defeat Romney for the nomination.
An ideal scenario for Fred would be for Huck to fade before January 3rd and for him to have a strong 2nd in IA--or even win. Then have all the Huck voters to abandon Huck for Fred. But I wouldn't bet on this.
New poll: McCain Huckabee Romney Thompson Paul Giuliani 26.9 25.9 14.7 14.6 4.4 3.4
New prediction: I was smart not to place any bets! I'm incredulous McCain is doing as well as he is here. I will predict Huck, McCain, Fred, Mitt, Rudy, and Paul. If I'm right, this will be a big blow to Fred's campaign. His only hope is that a lot of McCain and Huck voters change at the last minute to him and the undecideds (10%) break for him and he wins. That could happen. But I won't bet on it.
It's pretty clear no one is going to drop out until after Super Tuesday--so my original premise was wrong.
Who will be the next to drop out? Based on funding, it should be Hunter, and then Huck, and then McCain. Fred has more funds than any of these. Hunter's people should go to Fred. Huck's people will probably go to Fred before they go to anyone else. I thought if McCain drops out, he'd recommend Fred. I'm not sure about that, and even so, it seems more likely his people would go to Rudy.
If this happens, then we have a three man race: Rudy, Mitt, and Fred, probably going to the convention. This represents the left, middle, and right sides of the Republican party.
At the convention, how will these candidates' delegates move?
Rudy - may move to Mitt or Fred Mitt - may move to Fred, not likely to move to Rudy. Fred - may move to Mitt, will not move to Rudy
So Rudy gets eliminated at the convention and the decision comes down to Mitt and Fred. May the best man win!
I just want Rootie and McCain to go away right now.
I think you’re whistling past the graveyard. McCain has the media going full tilt for him. Looks like he may well be the nominee.
Millions of conservatives will stay home in November.
Duncan Hunter says he’s in it until the end, and I believe him. As others drop out, he and his platform may become more prominent (I hope). Please include him in your analysis, although I guess RCP isn’t providing data for him.
Huckabee will have to drop out, because in the end, he will not get the votes he needs or the money for his campaign.
NO!!! This cannot happen. Not to usurp this thread, but check out this excellent article written by George Will ( http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/18/AR2008011802743.html ).
McCain is more of a democrat than a RINO!
What makes you think that any of these guys are going to drop out? If Duncan Hunter, who has attracted less support than any other Republican candidate is staying in, why shouldn’t the others who have done better than him?
They figure they can parlay what support they do have into something at the convention. That could range anywhere from getting a speech to getting the veep slot.
it’s common knowledge that Huckabee is just a stalking horse for McCain, LOL.
Its not accurate without him.
Do NOT dismiss Hunter in this unusual race, things could change in a matter of days.
Seems unlikely that anyone would drop out before Super Tuesday, given that they’ve come this far.
Ping!
McCain Giuliani Romney Huckabee Thompson Paul 23.2 20.3 18.0 17.3 8.5 5.0
If NV and SC go as predicted, I don't expect much change, expect, perhaps, Fred to pass Huck for 4th.
If McCain disappoints in SC, as he did in 2000, look for him to drop like a rock.
Romney and Fred both have the potential to surprise in SC. If they succeed, they'll move up in FL. I predict: Mitt, Rudy, Fred, Huck, McCain.
The candidates consistently pulling the most votes in all States so far are McCain, Huckabee, and Romney. Unless lightning strikes, the nominee is probably going to be one of those three.
Your predictions look more like wishful thinking than logic.
After Fred’s people put a major effort into Iowa (for some incomprehensible reason) he needed at least a strong third. He got a weak third. South Carolina was his ‘must win’ state, and he looks like he won’t even make it into 2nd. That will be followed by a likely 4th in Florida. I can’t see his current campaign team producing the results needed.
Rudy may still pull it out in Florida, but I’m not counting McCain out yet there. He will appeal to a lot of vets. There are a lot of evangelicals in North Florida and the Panhandle, so Huck’s going to be strong there as well, but it looks like Mitt is probably going to run strong there as well, and will probably push Huck into 4th place.
So, coming out of Fla, the front runners are going to be McCain and Huck. Mitt, Fred, and Rudy are going to be the second tier guys, and will probably drop out in that order. (Rudy’s going to be able to keep tapping the liberal money, and conservatives will support Fred as long as they can.)
Giuliani, next week. He hasn’t done squat in any race so far. I don’t buy his Florida strategy, it’s just a way for him to say just wait ... No sign of any Rudy support in Florida.
“I think you’re whistling past the graveyard. McCain has the media going full tilt for him. Looks like he may well be the nominee.”
The media may be for him, but they don’t vote—Pubbies do. McCain will never get more than 25% of the Pubbie vote and he will never be the nominee. Relax.
People were in a big panic over liberal Rudy, another media darling. He’s “He who must not be named” now. His drop was precipitous and so shall McCain’s be. He’s nothing in the south.
The nominee will be Mitt or Fred.
Maybe the bad weather in SC will keep the old folks home and McCain will not do as well. I also think the old folks are more likely to be home when the pollsters call. Meanwhile - I hope folks wake up and see that McCain will sell out Repblicans at any opportunity. I love his foreign policy stance, and that he is a veteran, but I cannot stand McCain in domestic issues.
..I think Super Tuesday will euthanize at least a couple of campaigns—and my guy ain’t one of them...
Hope to goodness you are right. If McCain is the nominee I don’t even see the point of voting.
“Your predictions look more like wishful thinking than logic.”
No doubt my predictions are influenced by being a Fred supporter!
“After Fred’s people put a major effort into Iowa (for some incomprehensible reason) he needed at least a strong third. He got a weak third. South Carolina was his ‘must win’ state, and he looks like he won’t even make it into 2nd. That will be followed by a likely 4th in Florida. I can’t see his current campaign team producing the results needed.”
Based on current trends, you’re right. However, the current state will not continue. Candidates will run out of money and hope. The most important thing, in my opinion, is who lasts the longest.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.