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Who Will Drop Out When? - Thread 2
Real Clear Politics | 1/19/2008 | Self

Posted on 01/19/2008 6:31:49 AM PST by Forgiven_Sinner

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Here is my original thread: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1934281/posts
1 posted on 01/19/2008 6:31:52 AM PST by Forgiven_Sinner
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To: Forgiven_Sinner

I just want Rootie and McCain to go away right now.


2 posted on 01/19/2008 6:32:49 AM PST by cripplecreek (Duncan Hunter, Conservative excellence in action.)
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To: Forgiven_Sinner

I think you’re whistling past the graveyard. McCain has the media going full tilt for him. Looks like he may well be the nominee.

Millions of conservatives will stay home in November.


3 posted on 01/19/2008 6:35:56 AM PST by kjo
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To: Forgiven_Sinner

Duncan Hunter says he’s in it until the end, and I believe him. As others drop out, he and his platform may become more prominent (I hope). Please include him in your analysis, although I guess RCP isn’t providing data for him.


4 posted on 01/19/2008 6:37:29 AM PST by Joann37
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To: Forgiven_Sinner

Huckabee will have to drop out, because in the end, he will not get the votes he needs or the money for his campaign.


5 posted on 01/19/2008 6:38:19 AM PST by AmericanMade1776
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To: kjo

NO!!! This cannot happen. Not to usurp this thread, but check out this excellent article written by George Will ( http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/18/AR2008011802743.html ).

McCain is more of a democrat than a RINO!


6 posted on 01/19/2008 6:40:34 AM PST by Joann37
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To: Forgiven_Sinner

What makes you think that any of these guys are going to drop out? If Duncan Hunter, who has attracted less support than any other Republican candidate is staying in, why shouldn’t the others who have done better than him?

They figure they can parlay what support they do have into something at the convention. That could range anywhere from getting a speech to getting the veep slot.


7 posted on 01/19/2008 6:42:31 AM PST by Josh Painter ("My idea of Gun Control is a good, steady aim." - Fred Thompson)
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To: AmericanMade1776

it’s common knowledge that Huckabee is just a stalking horse for McCain, LOL.


8 posted on 01/19/2008 6:43:51 AM PST by Josh Painter ("My idea of Gun Control is a good, steady aim." - Fred Thompson)
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To: Forgiven_Sinner
Where is Hunter in this summary.

Its not accurate without him.

Do NOT dismiss Hunter in this unusual race, things could change in a matter of days.

9 posted on 01/19/2008 6:46:29 AM PST by Candor7 (Fascism? All it takes is for good men to say nothing.)
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To: Forgiven_Sinner

Seems unlikely that anyone would drop out before Super Tuesday, given that they’ve come this far.


10 posted on 01/19/2008 6:47:08 AM PST by Brilliant
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To: pissant

Ping!


11 posted on 01/19/2008 6:47:55 AM PST by Candor7 (Fascism? All it takes is for good men to say nothing.)
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To: Forgiven_Sinner
I forgot to predict FL. Obviously, what happens there is heavily dependent upon NV and SC. Here's the current RCP poll:
McCain	Giuliani Romney	Huckabee Thompson	Paul	
23.2	20.3	18.0	17.3	   8.5	        5.0

If NV and SC go as predicted, I don't expect much change, expect, perhaps, Fred to pass Huck for 4th.

If McCain disappoints in SC, as he did in 2000, look for him to drop like a rock.

Romney and Fred both have the potential to surprise in SC. If they succeed, they'll move up in FL. I predict: Mitt, Rudy, Fred, Huck, McCain.

12 posted on 01/19/2008 6:53:12 AM PST by Forgiven_Sinner (For God so loved the world, that He gave His only Son that whosoever believes in Him should not die)
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To: Forgiven_Sinner

The candidates consistently pulling the most votes in all States so far are McCain, Huckabee, and Romney. Unless lightning strikes, the nominee is probably going to be one of those three.


13 posted on 01/19/2008 6:53:39 AM PST by popdonnelly (Get Reid. Salazar, and Harkin out of the Senate.)
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To: Forgiven_Sinner

Your predictions look more like wishful thinking than logic.

After Fred’s people put a major effort into Iowa (for some incomprehensible reason) he needed at least a strong third. He got a weak third. South Carolina was his ‘must win’ state, and he looks like he won’t even make it into 2nd. That will be followed by a likely 4th in Florida. I can’t see his current campaign team producing the results needed.

Rudy may still pull it out in Florida, but I’m not counting McCain out yet there. He will appeal to a lot of vets. There are a lot of evangelicals in North Florida and the Panhandle, so Huck’s going to be strong there as well, but it looks like Mitt is probably going to run strong there as well, and will probably push Huck into 4th place.

So, coming out of Fla, the front runners are going to be McCain and Huck. Mitt, Fred, and Rudy are going to be the second tier guys, and will probably drop out in that order. (Rudy’s going to be able to keep tapping the liberal money, and conservatives will support Fred as long as they can.)


14 posted on 01/19/2008 6:54:41 AM PST by PAR35
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To: Forgiven_Sinner

Giuliani, next week. He hasn’t done squat in any race so far. I don’t buy his Florida strategy, it’s just a way for him to say just wait ... No sign of any Rudy support in Florida.


15 posted on 01/19/2008 6:55:59 AM PST by Tarpon (Ignorance, the most expensive commodity produced by mankind.)
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To: kjo

“I think you’re whistling past the graveyard. McCain has the media going full tilt for him. Looks like he may well be the nominee.”

The media may be for him, but they don’t vote—Pubbies do. McCain will never get more than 25% of the Pubbie vote and he will never be the nominee. Relax.

People were in a big panic over liberal Rudy, another media darling. He’s “He who must not be named” now. His drop was precipitous and so shall McCain’s be. He’s nothing in the south.

The nominee will be Mitt or Fred.


16 posted on 01/19/2008 6:56:24 AM PST by Forgiven_Sinner (For God so loved the world, that He gave His only Son that whosoever believes in Him should not die)
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To: Forgiven_Sinner

Maybe the bad weather in SC will keep the old folks home and McCain will not do as well. I also think the old folks are more likely to be home when the pollsters call. Meanwhile - I hope folks wake up and see that McCain will sell out Repblicans at any opportunity. I love his foreign policy stance, and that he is a veteran, but I cannot stand McCain in domestic issues.


17 posted on 01/19/2008 6:56:29 AM PST by Martins kid
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To: Forgiven_Sinner

..I think Super Tuesday will euthanize at least a couple of campaigns—and my guy ain’t one of them...


18 posted on 01/19/2008 7:01:43 AM PST by WalterSkinner ( In Memory of My Father--WWII Vet and Patriot 1926-2007)
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To: Forgiven_Sinner

Hope to goodness you are right. If McCain is the nominee I don’t even see the point of voting.


19 posted on 01/19/2008 7:01:49 AM PST by kjo
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To: PAR35

“Your predictions look more like wishful thinking than logic.”

No doubt my predictions are influenced by being a Fred supporter!

“After Fred’s people put a major effort into Iowa (for some incomprehensible reason) he needed at least a strong third. He got a weak third. South Carolina was his ‘must win’ state, and he looks like he won’t even make it into 2nd. That will be followed by a likely 4th in Florida. I can’t see his current campaign team producing the results needed.”

Based on current trends, you’re right. However, the current state will not continue. Candidates will run out of money and hope. The most important thing, in my opinion, is who lasts the longest.


20 posted on 01/19/2008 7:02:19 AM PST by Forgiven_Sinner (For God so loved the world, that He gave His only Son that whosoever believes in Him should not die)
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