Skip to comments.Who Will Drop Out When? - Thread 2
Posted on 01/19/2008 6:31:49 AM PST by Forgiven_Sinner
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I just want Rootie and McCain to go away right now.
I think you’re whistling past the graveyard. McCain has the media going full tilt for him. Looks like he may well be the nominee.
Millions of conservatives will stay home in November.
Duncan Hunter says he’s in it until the end, and I believe him. As others drop out, he and his platform may become more prominent (I hope). Please include him in your analysis, although I guess RCP isn’t providing data for him.
Huckabee will have to drop out, because in the end, he will not get the votes he needs or the money for his campaign.
NO!!! This cannot happen. Not to usurp this thread, but check out this excellent article written by George Will ( http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/18/AR2008011802743.html ).
McCain is more of a democrat than a RINO!
What makes you think that any of these guys are going to drop out? If Duncan Hunter, who has attracted less support than any other Republican candidate is staying in, why shouldn’t the others who have done better than him?
They figure they can parlay what support they do have into something at the convention. That could range anywhere from getting a speech to getting the veep slot.
it’s common knowledge that Huckabee is just a stalking horse for McCain, LOL.
Its not accurate without him.
Do NOT dismiss Hunter in this unusual race, things could change in a matter of days.
Seems unlikely that anyone would drop out before Super Tuesday, given that they’ve come this far.
McCain Giuliani Romney Huckabee Thompson Paul 23.2 20.3 18.0 17.3 8.5 5.0
If NV and SC go as predicted, I don't expect much change, expect, perhaps, Fred to pass Huck for 4th.
If McCain disappoints in SC, as he did in 2000, look for him to drop like a rock.
Romney and Fred both have the potential to surprise in SC. If they succeed, they'll move up in FL. I predict: Mitt, Rudy, Fred, Huck, McCain.
The candidates consistently pulling the most votes in all States so far are McCain, Huckabee, and Romney. Unless lightning strikes, the nominee is probably going to be one of those three.
Your predictions look more like wishful thinking than logic.
After Fred’s people put a major effort into Iowa (for some incomprehensible reason) he needed at least a strong third. He got a weak third. South Carolina was his ‘must win’ state, and he looks like he won’t even make it into 2nd. That will be followed by a likely 4th in Florida. I can’t see his current campaign team producing the results needed.
Rudy may still pull it out in Florida, but I’m not counting McCain out yet there. He will appeal to a lot of vets. There are a lot of evangelicals in North Florida and the Panhandle, so Huck’s going to be strong there as well, but it looks like Mitt is probably going to run strong there as well, and will probably push Huck into 4th place.
So, coming out of Fla, the front runners are going to be McCain and Huck. Mitt, Fred, and Rudy are going to be the second tier guys, and will probably drop out in that order. (Rudy’s going to be able to keep tapping the liberal money, and conservatives will support Fred as long as they can.)
Giuliani, next week. He hasn’t done squat in any race so far. I don’t buy his Florida strategy, it’s just a way for him to say just wait ... No sign of any Rudy support in Florida.
“I think youre whistling past the graveyard. McCain has the media going full tilt for him. Looks like he may well be the nominee.”
The media may be for him, but they don’t vote—Pubbies do. McCain will never get more than 25% of the Pubbie vote and he will never be the nominee. Relax.
People were in a big panic over liberal Rudy, another media darling. He’s “He who must not be named” now. His drop was precipitous and so shall McCain’s be. He’s nothing in the south.
The nominee will be Mitt or Fred.
Maybe the bad weather in SC will keep the old folks home and McCain will not do as well. I also think the old folks are more likely to be home when the pollsters call. Meanwhile - I hope folks wake up and see that McCain will sell out Repblicans at any opportunity. I love his foreign policy stance, and that he is a veteran, but I cannot stand McCain in domestic issues.
..I think Super Tuesday will euthanize at least a couple of campaigns—and my guy ain’t one of them...
Hope to goodness you are right. If McCain is the nominee I don’t even see the point of voting.
“Your predictions look more like wishful thinking than logic.”
No doubt my predictions are influenced by being a Fred supporter!
“After Freds people put a major effort into Iowa (for some incomprehensible reason) he needed at least a strong third. He got a weak third. South Carolina was his must win state, and he looks like he wont even make it into 2nd. That will be followed by a likely 4th in Florida. I cant see his current campaign team producing the results needed.”
Based on current trends, you’re right. However, the current state will not continue. Candidates will run out of money and hope. The most important thing, in my opinion, is who lasts the longest.
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