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Who Will Drop Out When? - Thread 2
Real Clear Politics | 1/19/2008 | Self

Posted on 01/19/2008 6:31:49 AM PST by Forgiven_Sinner

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To: Forgiven_Sinner
No doubt my predictions are influenced by being a Fred supporter!

I'm a Fred supporter as well, but if he is still running like this when the race gets to my state, I'm going to have to look at going with strategic voting.

21 posted on 01/19/2008 7:52:59 AM PST by PAR35
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To: PAR35

Me: “No doubt my predictions are influenced by being a Fred supporter!”

“I’m a Fred supporter as well, but if he is still running like this when the race gets to my state, I’m going to have to look at going with strategic voting.”

My backup candidate is Mitt, if Fred doesn’t make. I’m sure Mitt is a good manager—I’m just not sure if he really believes what he is currently saying.


22 posted on 01/19/2008 8:39:41 AM PST by Forgiven_Sinner (For God so loved the world, that He gave His only Son that whosoever believes in Him should not die)
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To: Forgiven_Sinner

Here’s a snapshot from Intrade for January and February dropout contracts. Thompson leads the pack in both cases, with 70.1% for January and 86.2% for February.

Contract Bid Ask Last Vol Chge
DROPOUT.JAN08.(F)THOMPSON
Fred Thompson to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 M Trade 71.0 84.9 70.1 289 0
DROPOUT.JAN08.CLINTON
Hillary Clinton to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 M Trade 1.0 23.9 1.0 71 0
DROPOUT.JAN08.HUCKABEE
Mike Huckabee to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 M Trade 7.4 20.0 10.0 76 0
DROPOUT.JAN08.EDWARDS
John Edwards to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 M Trade 10.0 15.9 18.9 247 0
DROPOUT.JAN08.GIULIANI
Rudy Giuliani to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 M Trade 10.0 13.9 10.1 64 0
DROPOUT.JAN08.PAUL
Ron Paul to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 M Trade - 5.0 5.5 105 0
DROPOUT.JAN08.ROMNEY
Mitt Romney to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 M Trade 2.5 10.0 6.2 351 0
DROPOUT.JAN08.MCCAIN
John McCain to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 M Trade 0.5 9.9 4.9 66 0
DROPOUT.JAN08.OBAMA
Barack Obama to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 M Trade - 0.1 0.1 11 0

Contract Bid Ask Last Vol Chge
DROPOUT.FEB08.(F)THOMPSON
Fred Thompson to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 29 Feb 2008 M Trade 90.0 94.0 86.2 15 0
DROPOUT.FEB08.GIULIANI
Rudy Giuliani to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 29 Feb 2008 M Trade 65.0 90.0 77.5 60 0
DROPOUT.FEB08.HUCKABEE
Mike Huckabee to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 29 Feb 2008 M Trade 65.0 85.0 68.0 40 0
DROPOUT.FEB08.EDWARDS
John Edwards to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 29 Feb 2008 M Trade 75.1 83.9 79.0 36 0
DROPOUT.FEB08.ROMNEY
Mitt Romney to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 29 Feb 2008 M Trade - 59.9 57.5 187 0
DROPOUT.FEB08.PAUL
Ron Paul to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 29 Feb 2008 M Trade 10.0 40.0 25.0 42 0
DROPOUT.FEB08.MCCAIN
John McCain to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 29 Feb 2008 M Trade 10.0 34.9 22.4 71 0
DROPOUT.FEB08.CLINTON
Hillary Clinton to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 29 Feb 2008 M Trade 6.1 25.0 18.0 211 0
DROPOUT.FEB08.OBAMA
Barack Obama to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 29 Feb 2008 M Trade 5.0 30.0 15.0 22 0


23 posted on 01/19/2008 8:41:55 AM PST by Kevmo (Duncan Hunter won't "let some arrogant corporate media executive decide whether this campaign's over)
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To: Kevmo

Interesting. I would think Huck would be more likely to drop than Fred, since he has less money. Same for McCain.

I still say if either Huck or McCain tanks, that’ll help Fred—he just has to outlast them.


24 posted on 01/19/2008 8:49:18 AM PST by Forgiven_Sinner (For God so loved the world, that He gave His only Son that whosoever believes in Him should not die)
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To: Forgiven_Sinner

Once Fred drops, Hunter will pick up the conservative support.

If Huckabee fizzles, his followers will be looking for another prolife evangelical to fill the void. Hunter fits that bill, no one else in the race is evangelical.

The GOP doesn’t get it. They need to let this faction find a home. The amount of invective aimed at evangelicals is surprising, but then everyone wants their votes.

Huckabee has surged because he won a couple of debates and he’s got evangelical support. If a quick rise can happen to the liberal pro-life evangelical Huckster, it can happen to the conservative pro-life evangelical Hunter.

Prolife evangelicals will be very comfortable in Hunter’s camp, since he’s a prolife evangelical staunch conservative.


25 posted on 01/19/2008 12:02:25 PM PST by Kevmo (Duncan Hunter won't "let some arrogant corporate media executive decide whether this campaign's over)
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