I just want Rootie and McCain to go away right now.
I think you’re whistling past the graveyard. McCain has the media going full tilt for him. Looks like he may well be the nominee.
Millions of conservatives will stay home in November.
Duncan Hunter says he’s in it until the end, and I believe him. As others drop out, he and his platform may become more prominent (I hope). Please include him in your analysis, although I guess RCP isn’t providing data for him.
Huckabee will have to drop out, because in the end, he will not get the votes he needs or the money for his campaign.
What makes you think that any of these guys are going to drop out? If Duncan Hunter, who has attracted less support than any other Republican candidate is staying in, why shouldn’t the others who have done better than him?
They figure they can parlay what support they do have into something at the convention. That could range anywhere from getting a speech to getting the veep slot.
Its not accurate without him.
Do NOT dismiss Hunter in this unusual race, things could change in a matter of days.
Seems unlikely that anyone would drop out before Super Tuesday, given that they’ve come this far.
McCain Giuliani Romney Huckabee Thompson Paul 23.2 20.3 18.0 17.3 8.5 5.0
If NV and SC go as predicted, I don't expect much change, expect, perhaps, Fred to pass Huck for 4th.
If McCain disappoints in SC, as he did in 2000, look for him to drop like a rock.
Romney and Fred both have the potential to surprise in SC. If they succeed, they'll move up in FL. I predict: Mitt, Rudy, Fred, Huck, McCain.
The candidates consistently pulling the most votes in all States so far are McCain, Huckabee, and Romney. Unless lightning strikes, the nominee is probably going to be one of those three.
Your predictions look more like wishful thinking than logic.
After Fred’s people put a major effort into Iowa (for some incomprehensible reason) he needed at least a strong third. He got a weak third. South Carolina was his ‘must win’ state, and he looks like he won’t even make it into 2nd. That will be followed by a likely 4th in Florida. I can’t see his current campaign team producing the results needed.
Rudy may still pull it out in Florida, but I’m not counting McCain out yet there. He will appeal to a lot of vets. There are a lot of evangelicals in North Florida and the Panhandle, so Huck’s going to be strong there as well, but it looks like Mitt is probably going to run strong there as well, and will probably push Huck into 4th place.
So, coming out of Fla, the front runners are going to be McCain and Huck. Mitt, Fred, and Rudy are going to be the second tier guys, and will probably drop out in that order. (Rudy’s going to be able to keep tapping the liberal money, and conservatives will support Fred as long as they can.)
Giuliani, next week. He hasn’t done squat in any race so far. I don’t buy his Florida strategy, it’s just a way for him to say just wait ... No sign of any Rudy support in Florida.
Maybe the bad weather in SC will keep the old folks home and McCain will not do as well. I also think the old folks are more likely to be home when the pollsters call. Meanwhile - I hope folks wake up and see that McCain will sell out Repblicans at any opportunity. I love his foreign policy stance, and that he is a veteran, but I cannot stand McCain in domestic issues.
..I think Super Tuesday will euthanize at least a couple of campaigns—and my guy ain’t one of them...
Here’s a snapshot from Intrade for January and February dropout contracts. Thompson leads the pack in both cases, with 70.1% for January and 86.2% for February.
Contract Bid Ask Last Vol Chge
DROPOUT.JAN08.(F)THOMPSON
Fred Thompson to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 M Trade 71.0 84.9 70.1 289 0
DROPOUT.JAN08.CLINTON
Hillary Clinton to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 M Trade 1.0 23.9 1.0 71 0
DROPOUT.JAN08.HUCKABEE
Mike Huckabee to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 M Trade 7.4 20.0 10.0 76 0
DROPOUT.JAN08.EDWARDS
John Edwards to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 M Trade 10.0 15.9 18.9 247 0
DROPOUT.JAN08.GIULIANI
Rudy Giuliani to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 M Trade 10.0 13.9 10.1 64 0
DROPOUT.JAN08.PAUL
Ron Paul to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 M Trade - 5.0 5.5 105 0
DROPOUT.JAN08.ROMNEY
Mitt Romney to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 M Trade 2.5 10.0 6.2 351 0
DROPOUT.JAN08.MCCAIN
John McCain to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 M Trade 0.5 9.9 4.9 66 0
DROPOUT.JAN08.OBAMA
Barack Obama to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 M Trade - 0.1 0.1 11 0
Contract Bid Ask Last Vol Chge
DROPOUT.FEB08.(F)THOMPSON
Fred Thompson to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 29 Feb 2008 M Trade 90.0 94.0 86.2 15 0
DROPOUT.FEB08.GIULIANI
Rudy Giuliani to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 29 Feb 2008 M Trade 65.0 90.0 77.5 60 0
DROPOUT.FEB08.HUCKABEE
Mike Huckabee to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 29 Feb 2008 M Trade 65.0 85.0 68.0 40 0
DROPOUT.FEB08.EDWARDS
John Edwards to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 29 Feb 2008 M Trade 75.1 83.9 79.0 36 0
DROPOUT.FEB08.ROMNEY
Mitt Romney to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 29 Feb 2008 M Trade - 59.9 57.5 187 0
DROPOUT.FEB08.PAUL
Ron Paul to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 29 Feb 2008 M Trade 10.0 40.0 25.0 42 0
DROPOUT.FEB08.MCCAIN
John McCain to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 29 Feb 2008 M Trade 10.0 34.9 22.4 71 0
DROPOUT.FEB08.CLINTON
Hillary Clinton to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 29 Feb 2008 M Trade 6.1 25.0 18.0 211 0
DROPOUT.FEB08.OBAMA
Barack Obama to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 29 Feb 2008 M Trade 5.0 30.0 15.0 22 0