Here’s a snapshot from Intrade for January and February dropout contracts. Thompson leads the pack in both cases, with 70.1% for January and 86.2% for February.
Contract Bid Ask Last Vol Chge
DROPOUT.JAN08.(F)THOMPSON
Fred Thompson to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 M Trade 71.0 84.9 70.1 289 0
DROPOUT.JAN08.CLINTON
Hillary Clinton to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 M Trade 1.0 23.9 1.0 71 0
DROPOUT.JAN08.HUCKABEE
Mike Huckabee to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 M Trade 7.4 20.0 10.0 76 0
DROPOUT.JAN08.EDWARDS
John Edwards to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 M Trade 10.0 15.9 18.9 247 0
DROPOUT.JAN08.GIULIANI
Rudy Giuliani to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 M Trade 10.0 13.9 10.1 64 0
DROPOUT.JAN08.PAUL
Ron Paul to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 M Trade - 5.0 5.5 105 0
DROPOUT.JAN08.ROMNEY
Mitt Romney to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 M Trade 2.5 10.0 6.2 351 0
DROPOUT.JAN08.MCCAIN
John McCain to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 M Trade 0.5 9.9 4.9 66 0
DROPOUT.JAN08.OBAMA
Barack Obama to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 M Trade - 0.1 0.1 11 0
Contract Bid Ask Last Vol Chge
DROPOUT.FEB08.(F)THOMPSON
Fred Thompson to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 29 Feb 2008 M Trade 90.0 94.0 86.2 15 0
DROPOUT.FEB08.GIULIANI
Rudy Giuliani to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 29 Feb 2008 M Trade 65.0 90.0 77.5 60 0
DROPOUT.FEB08.HUCKABEE
Mike Huckabee to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 29 Feb 2008 M Trade 65.0 85.0 68.0 40 0
DROPOUT.FEB08.EDWARDS
John Edwards to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 29 Feb 2008 M Trade 75.1 83.9 79.0 36 0
DROPOUT.FEB08.ROMNEY
Mitt Romney to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 29 Feb 2008 M Trade - 59.9 57.5 187 0
DROPOUT.FEB08.PAUL
Ron Paul to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 29 Feb 2008 M Trade 10.0 40.0 25.0 42 0
DROPOUT.FEB08.MCCAIN
John McCain to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 29 Feb 2008 M Trade 10.0 34.9 22.4 71 0
DROPOUT.FEB08.CLINTON
Hillary Clinton to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 29 Feb 2008 M Trade 6.1 25.0 18.0 211 0
DROPOUT.FEB08.OBAMA
Barack Obama to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 29 Feb 2008 M Trade 5.0 30.0 15.0 22 0
Interesting. I would think Huck would be more likely to drop than Fred, since he has less money. Same for McCain.
I still say if either Huck or McCain tanks, that’ll help Fred—he just has to outlast them.