Posted on 10/19/2006 6:58:42 PM PDT by seanrobins
While it may appear that Republicans generally are getting hammered in a wide variety of polls going into this last month before the November mid-term elections, what is almost never explained by the pollsters, or their media conspirators, is that the polling data is deliberately skewed to favor the Democratic outcome. (Gee, who would have guessed?)
The scam is a simple, yet thoroughly devious one. The polling service simply "samples" a disproportionately large number of Democrats versus Republicans in its poll. Taking as an accurate generalization that Democrats poll one way for the most part, and Republicans another for the most part - such Democrat-oversampled polls result in Democrat-leaning results.
Today's case in point, brought to light courtesy of NewsBusters, is that of the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, in which 1,006 registered voters were questioned during the October 13-16, 2006 period, concerning a variety of standard political issues. The margin of error reported was +/- 3.1% Some of the "highlights" of the poll - those questions which were the primary object of the poll, included the following:
In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job that George W. Bush is doing as president? |
|
Approve |
38 |
Disapprove |
57 |
Not Sure |
5 |
In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job that George W. Bush is doing in handling the economy? |
|
Approve |
44 |
Disapprove |
52 |
Not Sure |
4 |
In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job that George W. Bush is doing in handling the situation in Iraq? |
|
Approve |
33 |
Disapprove |
63 |
Not Sure |
4 |
What is your preference for the outcome of this year's congressional elections--a Congress controlled by Republicans or a Congress controlled by Democrats? |
|
Republican-Controlled Congress |
37 |
Democrat-Controlled Congress |
52 |
Not Sure |
11 |
Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Democrat, a Republican, an independent, or something else?(IF "DEMOCRAT" OR "REPUBLICAN," ASK:) Would you call yourself a strong (Democrat/Republican) or not a very strong (Democrat/Republican)?(IF "INDEPENDENT," ASK:) Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party, closer to the Democratic Party, or do you think of yourself as strictly independent? |
|
Strong Democrat |
21 |
Not very strong Democrat |
7 |
Independent/lean Democrat |
15 |
Strictly Independent |
15 |
Independent/lean Republican |
10 |
Not very strong Republican |
9 |
Strong Republican |
18 |
Other/Not Sure |
5 |
This last question reflects the "heart" of the survey's demographic in terms of political affiliation. Note: Although respondents are initially asked whether they are registered - and only those answering that they are continue - the pollsters do not as specifically about party registration. The question is couched in terms of a respondent's views of him or herself poltically.
The results of this question demonstrates the skew in terms of Democrats vs. Republicans. 80% of respondents described themselves in terms of either being or leaning either Democrat or Republican - 43% as Democrat - 37% as Republican. This represents an oversampling of Democrats by 16 per per-cent. When coupled with the margin of error, this represents a very significant statistical advantage of Democrats over Republicans, due entirely to the composition of the sample as determined by the pollster.
What does this mean? Well, it is not possible to know with certainty what the results would have been had the sample not been so significantly skewed. In other words, we do not know how many Democrats approved or disapproved versus how many Republicans. Nor can we know which way - if the sample were not skewed - how the "extra" Republican opinions would have responded. However, we do know that it would have made a significant difference.
If we assume - reasonably though not absolutely - that the omitted Republicans would have said that they approved of how the President was doing his job, this would represent an 8% shift in the numbers. 38% approval and 57% disapproval suddenly becomes 46% approval and 51% disapproval. A five-point difference which, factoring in the +/- 3.1% margin of error, results in a virtual tie between those who approve and those who disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing.
Even more significantly is the change in the numbers on approval of how the President is handling the economy. Making the adjustment, a 44% approval and 52% disapproval, becomes a 52% approval and a 44% disapproval. A complete reversal.
As to the handling of Iraq, pre-adjustment it is 33% approval and 63% disapproval. Making the adjustment for Democrat oversampling, the results become, 41% approval and 55% disapproval. This results in an 11% differential when considering the margin of error. Not terrific numbers, but much better than what the pollsters would have you believe. Better numbers than this particular poll has reported in over a year. (Of course, without the sampling demographics for the prior NBC News/WSJ polls, we don't know how badly they were skewed Democrat.)
Finally, let's look at the most weighty question: The preference as to Democrat-controlled versus Republican-controlled Congress. The survey reports this as: 37% preference for a Republican-controlled Congress, and a 52% preference for a Democrat-controlled Congress. Again, the 16% skew in the sampling in favor of Democrats renders these results completely incompetent. Making the adjustment as before, the results change stunningly: 45% voice a preference for a Republican-controlled Congress, and 44% for a Democrat-controlled Congress.
"Fiddling the figures" in this one NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, simply by oversampling Democrats, leads to vastly skewed, erroneous and utterly unreliable results.
But this is what the mainstream media wants. Remember the old adage: Figures lie, and liars figure. That is precisely what is going on in this poll, and in the dozens of others out these the past few weeks which would portend doom and gloom for the Republicans.
I will absolutely be voting, however, I live in DiFi and Jane Harmon's district, so it is something I do religiously but to little effect.
Even if you aren't wearing pajamas.
EXCELLENT ANALYSIS!
Re: the media -- our local AM station which broadcasts Rush is an ABC affiliate. I listened to at least two negative stories about Republicans, including the stale Foley story, and other negative stories about the war, etc., AND NOT ONE STORY OF ANY KIND ABOUT REID, OR ANY OTHER DEMOCRAT.
I had to laugh at that one . It would be better to say if you don't care who is elected help us out and vote Republican.
Republicans too smart/busy to answer the phone?
Even more dangerous... oversampling of Dems in exit polls and then posting the early 'results'. This happened in the last election. This kind of crap aims to keep Repubicans/Conservatives at home on election day. All the proof required to demonstrate which team the MSM bats for is to look at the 2000 Election. Florida was called for Gore with an hour left to vote in the (overwhelmingly Republican) panhandle.
Good post
bttt
maybe you can't, but you did tell me there are allot of idiots over at KOS and DU...
Ditto!
"All the proof required to demonstrate which team the MSM bats for is to look at the 2000 Election. Florida was called for Gore with an hour left to vote in the (overwhelmingly Republican) panhandle."
No. It was only around 10 minutes early. The panhandle of Florida is one hour behind the rest of the State. Making all comparison time EST, what is correct is the FACT that NBC was the first to make the call for Gore 10 minutes and 20 seconds before the Florida panhandle polls were closed. Here are the on-air times for the network calls for Gore, Retraction of Gore, Bush, and Retraction of Bush for Florida on that election November 7/8 night/morning of the 2000 Presidential election.
Note: The "Blue" and "Red" indicates which network was first to make a call for either Gore or Bush.
Note: All times are in Eastern Standard Time (EST).
Source: ON-AIR NETWORK AND VNS CALLS, PRESIDENTIAL RACE, NOV. 7/8, 2000
If the call had been made at 8:00pm EST exactly, it still would have cost Bush votes as many still in line might have just left, so condititioned are many to believe everything they see and hear on television...
dvwjr
"What does this mean?"
It means THEY'RE LYING THROUGH THEIR TEETH TO WIN - BECAUSE IT'S THE ONLY WAY THEY CAN!!
Maybe these fake polls will backfire for the MSM and the Democrats and many Democrats will now feel so secure, they won't bother to show up and vote.
Thank you.
Since the 2000 election, look who has "left" the MSM - ABCs Peter Jennings (died), NBCs Tom Brokaw (retired) CBSs Dan Rather (liar got caught and lost his job) - funny, Brit Hume is still on FOX and is managing editor! Polls lie, but look at the changes that have come about with the new media! Stay alert, and go vote early for the Republicans on your ballot November 7th! Like Bugs Bunny said "you realize THIS means WAR"
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