Cooking the Polls: Democrat Oversampling Producing Phoney Results

www.seanrobins.com ^ | October 19, 2006 | Sean Robins

[seanrobins]

While it may appear that Republicans generally are getting hammered in a wide variety of polls going into this last month before the November mid-term elections, what is almost never explained by the pollsters, or their media conspirators, is that the polling data is deliberately skewed to favor the Democratic outcome. (Gee, who would have guessed?)

The scam is a simple, yet thoroughly devious one. The polling service simply "samples" a disproportionately large number of Democrats versus Republicans in its poll. Taking as an accurate generalization that Democrats poll one way for the most part, and Republicans another for the most part - such Democrat-oversampled polls result in Democrat-leaning results.

Today's case in point, brought to light courtesy of NewsBusters, is that of the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, in which 1,006 registered voters were questioned during the October 13-16, 2006 period, concerning a variety of standard political issues. The margin of error reported was +/- 3.1% Some of the "highlights" of the poll - those questions which were the primary object of the poll, included the following:

In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job that George W. Bush is doing as president?
Approve	38
Disapprove	57
Not Sure	5

In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job that George W. Bush is doing in handling the economy?
Approve	44
Disapprove	52
Not Sure	4

In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job that George W. Bush is doing in handling the situation in Iraq?
Approve	33
Disapprove	63
Not Sure	4

What is your preference for the outcome of this year's congressional elections--a Congress controlled by Republicans or a Congress controlled by Democrats?
Republican-Controlled Congress	37
Democrat-Controlled Congress	52
Not Sure	11

Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Democrat, a Republican, an independent, or something else? (IF "DEMOCRAT" OR "REPUBLICAN," ASK:) Would you call yourself a strong (Democrat/Republican) or not a very strong (Democrat/Republican)? (IF "INDEPENDENT," ASK:) Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party, closer to the Democratic Party, or do you think of yourself as strictly independent?
Strong Democrat	21
Not very strong Democrat	7
Independent/lean Democrat	15
Strictly Independent	15
Independent/lean Republican	10
Not very strong Republican	9
Strong Republican	18
Other/Not Sure	5

This last question reflects the "heart" of the survey's demographic in terms of political affiliation. Note: Although respondents are initially asked whether they are registered - and only those answering that they are continue - the pollsters do not as specifically about party registration. The question is couched in terms of a respondent's views of him or herself poltically.

The results of this question demonstrates the skew in terms of Democrats vs. Republicans. 80% of respondents described themselves in terms of either being or leaning either Democrat or Republican - 43% as Democrat - 37% as Republican. This represents an oversampling of Democrats by 16 per per-cent. When coupled with the margin of error, this represents a very significant statistical advantage of Democrats over Republicans, due entirely to the composition of the sample as determined by the pollster.

What does this mean? Well, it is not possible to know with certainty what the results would have been had the sample not been so significantly skewed. In other words, we do not know how many Democrats approved or disapproved versus how many Republicans. Nor can we know which way - if the sample were not skewed - how the "extra" Republican opinions would have responded. However, we do know that it would have made a significant difference.

If we assume - reasonably though not absolutely - that the omitted Republicans would have said that they approved of how the President was doing his job, this would represent an 8% shift in the numbers. 38% approval and 57% disapproval suddenly becomes 46% approval and 51% disapproval. A five-point difference which, factoring in the +/- 3.1% margin of error, results in a virtual tie between those who approve and those who disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing.

Even more significantly is the change in the numbers on approval of how the President is handling the economy. Making the adjustment, a 44% approval and 52% disapproval, becomes a 52% approval and a 44% disapproval. A complete reversal.

As to the handling of Iraq, pre-adjustment it is 33% approval and 63% disapproval. Making the adjustment for Democrat oversampling, the results become, 41% approval and 55% disapproval. This results in an 11% differential when considering the margin of error. Not terrific numbers, but much better than what the pollsters would have you believe. Better numbers than this particular poll has reported in over a year. (Of course, without the sampling demographics for the prior NBC News/WSJ polls, we don't know how badly they were skewed Democrat.)

Finally, let's look at the most weighty question: The preference as to Democrat-controlled versus Republican-controlled Congress. The survey reports this as: 37% preference for a Republican-controlled Congress, and a 52% preference for a Democrat-controlled Congress. Again, the 16% skew in the sampling in favor of Democrats renders these results completely incompetent. Making the adjustment as before, the results change stunningly: 45% voice a preference for a Republican-controlled Congress, and 44% for a Democrat-controlled Congress.

"Fiddling the figures" in this one NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, simply by oversampling Democrats, leads to vastly skewed, erroneous and utterly unreliable results.

But this is what the mainstream media wants. Remember the old adage: Figures lie, and liars figure. That is precisely what is going on in this poll, and in the dozens of others out these the past few weeks which would portend doom and gloom for the Republicans.

[conservativepoet]

Thanks for the great read. Very informative.

[Cobra64]

Personally,

[be4everfree]

I can't tell you how many people on DU and Kos consider polls as truth or proof and base their positions on this data.

[edpc]

Poll results are one of the reasons I sleep well at night. I have to get in on this gig. It seems like there's big money in this propaganda, even if you are a total fraud.

[italianquaker]

great work though

[Uriah_lost]

Keep this under your hat! The Dems must believe that they have this one in the bag for our plans to work out.

[IllumiNaughtyByNature]

As usual, the DU trolls and fellow trilobite will watch as the polls close and show REPS winning and holding both house and senate. This is because they need to blame something other than the fact that they are a party with no real ideas, losing black, Hispanic and union voters by the truckload and aborting all their future numbers.

I say let em have the polls, we'll take the elections, supreme court, etc. and besides, we need the keep PJ-Comix in business with the DUmmie Funnies.

[rbbeachkid]

I have been reading these articles about skewed polls and have been reassured. However, over the last few days, Rush, Sean and others have been going crazy about trying to up the turnout and how important this election is (all true) and they are starting to sound desperate. It is worrying me when I really wasn't all that worried before. They sound like they expect a loss.

[Ditter]

LOL!

[rbbeachkid]

And I would have responded that I don't approve of Bush's handling of the war in Iraq. I want them to be much more agressive. Let our troops do what they are actually capable of doing. I'm not sure that that is how MSNBC would interpret my answer.

[usmcobra]

43% as Democrat - 37% as Republican

Your math is wrong, it is only 6% not 16%

[seanrobins]

Even if you are Rush Limbaugh (forgive me...) or Sean Hannity, even you can take so much of the rubbish without some reaction. I get the jitters occasionally as well, although I know what the truth is:

For the vast majority of free thinking conservatives - no matter how pi**ed-off you might be over the imperfections of the "brand" of conservatism being practiced by the White House, and the far-too-many turncoats in the Congress (I won't even bother mentioning...you all know the "usual suspects), this is the truth:

"I'm going to vote for a DEMOCRAT because I'm annoyed by some Republicans and some Republican actions? WHAT? Are you KIDDING???"

That is the secret to November 7th.

Keep the faith. . .and stay calm.

Oh! And don't forget to vote... :)

[Redgirl]

"Rush, Sean and others have been going crazy about trying to up the turnout and how important this election is (all true) and they are starting to sound desperate."

That's ALL they talk about. I'm sick of all this hand-wringing. They need to chill.

[IYAAYAS]

I almost always vote straight R, I also always talk to pollsters when they call.

I would have answered that I disapproved of W's handling of Iraq. We should be putting a hurting on the entire nation of Iraq, not building them things. The more of our guys they kill, the more miserable all their lives get.

[evangmlw]

[seanrobins]

NOPE!

You are looking at the difference between the two NUMBERS.

I am looking at the percentage difference between the two numbers.

43% is 16% greater than 37%.

37 x 1.16 = 43

The point is that instead of sampling equivalent numbers of Republicans as Democrats, the pollster samples 16% more Democrats than Republicans. 43% is greater than 37% by 16%

[Judith Anne]

Here's the point that Rush et al want to make: It's all about turnout. If Republicans think it's in the bag, will they make the extra effort to vote? If Republicans take ANYTHING for granted, Republicans will lose. That is a possibility that ought to scare you. If you don't care who is elected, sit this one out.

[blogblogginaway]

The more they believe in these bogus polls, the harder they are going to fall. Can not WAIT till election night.

[demkicker]

I'd love nothing more than the Dems and their media partners in crime to be wrong as rain. I really don't have a good feel for what's going to happen on election day.

I do know that all of us need to pray to our God that he protects our country, troops and our President and his administration. Democrats, if they gain the majority, will do the opposite. I'm not surprised at the lying polls. I've never seen the media so outwardly biased against Republicans and it really is unnerving.