Posted on 07/30/2006 9:59:49 AM PDT by LdSentinal
RICHMOND -- U.S. Sen. George Allen holds a comfortable lead in his race for re-election and boasts a solid job approval rating, according to a poll commissioned by The Roanoke Times and other Virginia newspapers.
The Republican senator leads Democratic challenger James Webb by 16 percentage points in a statewide survey conducted last week by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research. But one-fifth of the voters remain undecided, and Allen still lacks majority support in his bid for a second term, according to the poll.
Allen has the support of 48 percent of the voters surveyed and leads Webb by wide margins in most regions of the state. Webb, a decorated Vietnam War veteran and former secretary of the Navy, leads Allen in densely populated Northern Virginia but remains unrecognized by one-third of the state's voters.
The results come from a telephone survey of 625 registered voters conducted Tuesday through Thursday. All of the participants said they are likely to vote in the Nov. 7 election. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Allen, a former governor, remains popular in Virginia as he pursues re-election to the Senate and draws national attention as a prospective 2008 presidential candidate. In the poll, 58 percent rated his Senate job performance as "excellent" or "good." That gives Allen much higher marks than President Bush, who has an approval rating of just 43 percent in the poll.
Allen's popularity falls short of the 66 percent approval rating for Virginia's senior U.S. senator, Republican John Warner.
Allen campaign manager Dick Wadhams said Allen's approval rating "shows great potential" for building on the senator's statistical lead over Webb.
But, Wadhams said, "It won't change anything we're doing. We're going to run an aggressive campaign."
Wadhams said he still expects a competitive race that could be influenced by national Democratic organizations' pouring money into Webb's campaign, even though Webb lagged far behind Allen in fundraising through the end of June.
Webb's military background, his work as a writer and his service as President Reagan's Navy secretary have some national Democrats touting him as a threat to Allen. Webb won the Democratic nomination in a June primary, but 33 percent of the voters in the poll did not recognize his name.
Webb spokeswoman Kristian Denny Todd predicted Webb will cut into Allen's lead as more voters become familiar with the Democratic nominee and his agenda.
"The support that he [Allen] seems to have in this poll is just name ID," Denny Todd said.
Allen also holds an 11-point lead among independent voters, a group that Webb's campaign has been working hard to attract.
Webb has tried to cast Allen as a philosophical clone of the president, citing Allen's tendencies to support administration policies and legislative initiatives. In a debate last weekend, Webb criticized Allen for siding with the president on issues ranging from the war in Iraq to restricting federal funding of embryonic stem cell research.
Allen's support of the president "could be giving some voters pause," said Brad Coker, the managing director of the Mason-Dixon poll. In the survey, 36 percent said Allen's alignment with Bush would make them less likely to vote for the senator. But 40 percent said it would have no effect, and 22 percent said it would make them more likely to re-elect Allen.
Nearly one-fourth of the voters surveyed cited the war in Iraq as the most important issue in the fall elections. Webb was an early and outspoken opponent of the U.S. invasion and continues to criticize the administration's handling of the war. Allen has vigorously supported the war effort.
Coker said the poll does not portend "a blow-out race," particularly with Allen lacking majority support in a head-to-head matchup with Webb. But, Coker said of Allen, "I wouldn't say he's terribly in danger."
While the poll gives Webb a 6-point edge in vote-rich Northern Virginia, Allen leads by wide margins throughout the rest of the state. The Republican leads Webb by 22 points in Southwest Virginia.
"Once you get out of Northern Virginia, Allen's numbers get back up to what you think they would be statewide," Coker said.
/sarcasm
Why is he under 50%? Even with a sizable lead, the fact that he isn't above 50% is troubling.
That was my thought, exactly. A challenger with the lead, but under 50%, is a good sign. Incumbents are better known, and for an incumbent to be under 50% in a two way race (is there a third candidate?) means over half the people know him, and don't want him. Much more difficult to change someone's mind, than to convince him the first time.
The last Allen/Webb poll I recently saw did have Allen above the 50% mark. It's posted somewhere here at FR.
Didn't the Washington Post report about three or four weeks ago that Allen was in trouble? Now we see him with a whopping 16 point lead over Chuckie Schumer's hand picked candidate, who happens to be former Reagan Secretary of the Navy, former U S Marine and former Repub Jim Webb. Webb was supposed to be the ideal dem candidate, a former Repub and Marine who opposes the war in Iraq. Nice try Chuckie old boy, I hope this is a harbinger for the things to come this fall.
Stick a fork in that turkey he's done.
I think there is a third party candidate.
Good news except for Huck.
Your math is wrong. He needs at least 3% total not 3% of the undecided. It's actually 15% of the undecided.
"Your math is wrong. He needs at least 3% total not 3% of the undecided. It's actually 15% of the undecided."
I knew that. I was just seeing if anyone here was smart enough to pick it up. I'm not kidding, I wouldn't lie about something like this, no siree, not me, never.
Whoo hooo! George Allen is a great Senator for Virginia, and for the United States.
Hey, any of you Virginians out there............
If it's Allen vs. Mark Warner for Prez in 2008, who will carry Va.?
Would Warner carry any Southern states against Allen?
Before that the last poll to measure Allen above 50 percent had him at 56 percent, 19 points ahead of Webb. That was a SurveyUSA poll released on June 27th.
The last four polls of this race have measured Allen at anywhere from 46 to 50 percent, between 7 and 16 points ahead of Webb.
They should have learned after Kerry reported for duty in 04'.
Paleo Conservative wrote:
> Why is he under 50%? Even with a sizable lead, the fact that he isn't above 50% is troubling. <
The sample was pretty small, only 625 people -- giving a margin of error of plus or minus four per cent.
So by the way these things are SUPPOSED to be evaluated, the true level Allen's support could be as low as 44% or as high as 52%.
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