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How close is the race for president? |
Posted on 09/22/2004 11:03:18 AM PDT by GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY
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How close is the race for president? |
W. Bush is at 47% and John Kerry is at 46% in the weighted national popular vote.
| Bush | Kerry | Nader | Other | DK | Sep | |
| US (weighted) |
47% | 46% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 7-21 |
| State: | ||||||
| Alabama | 54% | 40% | 1% | 0% | 4% | 13-16 |
| Alaska | 57% | 30% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 9-11 |
| Arizona | 49% | 43% | * | 1% | 6% | 11-14 |
| Arkansas | 48% | 45% | 2% | 0% | 5% | 15-17 |
| California | 41% | 52% | * | 1% | 6% | 11-13 |
| Colorado | 46% | 45% | 3% | 1% | 6% | 10-13 |
| Connecticut | 39% | 54% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 12-14 |
| Delaware | 41% | 50% | 2% | 1% | 6% | 13-15 |
| DC | 11% | 78% | 6% | 1% | 4% | 11-13 |
| Florida | 45% | 46% | 2% | 1% | 6% | 17-20 |
| Georgia | 53% | 42% | * | 1% | 4% | 11-13 |
| Hawaii | 41% | 51% | 4% | 0% | 4% | 7-11 |
| Idaho | 59% | 30% | 3% | 1% | 7% | 8-10 |
| Illinois | 43% | 49% | 2% | 1% | 5% | 13-16 |
| Indiana | 54% | 39% | * | 1% | 6% | 16-20 |
| Iowa | 48% | 46% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 12-14 |
| Kansas | 57% | 35% | 2% | 1% | 6% | 15-18 |
| Kentucky | 57% | 39% | 1% | 0% | 4% | 8-12 |
| Louisiana | 50% | 42% | 1% | 1% | 6% | 17-21 |
| Maine | 44% | 48% | 4% | 0% | 5% | 8-10 |
| Maryland | 43% | 52% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 7-9 |
| Massachusetts | 27% | 64% | * | 1% | 7% | 10-13 |
| Michigan | 40% | 48% | 1% | 1% | 9% | 17-21 |
| Minnesota | 45% | 47% | 2% | 1% | 5% | 10-12 |
| Mississippi | 51% | 42% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 14-17 |
| Missouri | 50% | 44% | * | 1% | 5% | 16-19 |
| Montana | 60% | 32% | 3% | 0% | 5% | 7-9 |
| Nebraska | 61% | 30% | 2% | 1% | 6% | 9-12 |
| Nevada | 47% | 45% | 1% | 1% | 6% | 12-14 |
| New Hampshire | 47% | 45% | 1% | 1% | 7% | 15-17 |
| New Jersey | 42% | 50% | 1% | 1% | 6% | 13-16 |
| New Mexico | 44% | 49% | 1% | 0% | 6% | 14-16 |
| New York | 40% | 52% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 14-16 |
| North Carolina | 49% | 44% | * | 1% | 6% | 13-16 |
| North Dakota | 62% | 33% | 1% | 0% | 4% | 7-10 |
| Ohio | 48% | 46% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 17-20 |
| Oklahoma | 55% | 38% | * | 1% | 6% | 15-20 |
| Oregon | 45% | 47% | 2% | 1% | 5% | 10-13 |
| Pennsylvania | 46% | 47% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 15-19 |
| Rhode Island | 30% | 58% | 4% | 1% | 6% | 11-13 |
| South Carolina | 52% | 40% | 1% | 1% | 7% | 14-16 |
| South Dakota | 58% | 39% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 8-12 |
| Tennessee | 50% | 43% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 16-18 |
| Texas | 58% | 36% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 16-20 |
| Utah | 64% | 27% | 4% | 1% | 5% | 10-13 |
| Vermont | 40% | 50% | 4% | 0% | 7% | 9-12 |
| Virginia | 49% | 43% | * | 1% | 7% | 12-14 |
| Washington | 44% | 51% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 9-13 |
| West Virginia | 46% | 46% | 2% | 1% | 6% | 14-16 |
| Wisconsin | 46% | 46% | 1% | 1% | 6% | 12-15 |
| Wyoming | 65% | 29% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 9-11 |
| 600 completed telephone interviews among likely voters in each state and DC on dates in September (Sep). MOE ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time. Row totals may not equal 100% due to rounding. |
||||||
http://electoral-vote.com/
Thing about Florida...Jeb won re-election easily at a time when we were told that anger over the recount was high. The military vote should strongly favor the President.
Florida will be close, but I doubt it will be as close as 2000. And if Bush wins PA, then Florida may not be so important.
Can we get a real polling firm to do a real poll.
Fiddled--UPDATE: Kerry Spot reader Matthew points out, "If you click on each state of this poll individually, you will see how distorted the polls are. For example, look at Illinois. The sampling is 29% Republicans, and 42% Democrats. And Bush only trails by 6? Same with PA. 42% are Republicans and 48% are Democrats. The poll also is weighted more towards women than men."
Yup, as I look over this, I see Florida is 55 percent women, 45 percent men. Ohio, 54 percent women, 46 percent men.
Also Kerry Spot reader Michael notes that this ARG poll has essentially the same results as the ARG poll completed 9/1, a 47-47 tie.
NRO Kerry Spot
The big 4 are:
MI, OH, PA, and FL.
Kerry needs 3, maybe all 4 of these.
Bush needs to keep OH and can then win with either PA or FL.
In general ... if the President gets any 2 he will win. Kerry needs 3, and that still might not be enough with WI going (R).
Take a look at Maine,New York,Illinois
These are biased but they seem to validate SUSA
Bush up only 9 in MS?
FOOL PLEASE
I looked at the gender issue: ARG's polls model the 2000 exit polls as far as gender is concerned.
The party registration numbers are also somewhat reflective as well. (That's from memory and not from any empirical data).
That may explain the pro-Kerry bent. Assuming 2004 is going to model 2000 is a mistake.
Bush is up in New Hampshire in both ARG and other polls.
BTW - Kerry this week was in Massachusetts, New York and Florida.
This is total crap.
What the heck!! This poll stuff can make a man go bald and make his teeth fall out. DAMN!
thanks ... KerrySpot mentions RealclearPolitics...
RCP average balances out the lousy polls ... I can live with Bush up 6 on average:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_hth.html
oh, and Bush has 284 EC votes, not even counting PA or NH, which he'll win:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/RCP_EC.html
Ah, but you are a "paleocon purveyor of pessimistic poll predictions". Try saying that 10 times fast! :-)
you are probably right that MD and CA will vote Kerry, but imho, OR, NJ, NH, IA and perhaps MI will fall in Bush's column. And certainly PA, WV and NM.
I predicted in February an 8 point Bush win.
I am going to stick by it, but Kerry's lousy campaign may cost him even more:
http://freedomstruth.blogspot.com/2004_02_01_freedomstruth_archive.html
We used to be bothered by telemarketing until we got our name on the Do-not-call-list. It really seems to work.
The specifics of this poll were posted on the Kerry Spot, they manipulated the poll by polling more Democrats than Republicans and more women than men.
BUSH UP ONLY 9 IN MISSISSIPPI TELLS ME ALL I NEED TO KNOW BOUT THIS
If you look at the limited internals of the polls by clicking on each link, you can see the breakdown for D/R/I and M/F.
They seemed to somewhat closely follow the 2000 exit poll data for the M/F breakdown (with a point or two variance).
So the gender weight is not much different than 2000.
I also think they weighted the poll to account for political party affiliation, but haven't had a chance to compare the two numbers.
What SUSA, Mason-Dixon, and Gallup have been doing is not weighing and letting the chips fall where they may.
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oh, don't be so sensative.
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