AP/Star Ledger: Bush Cuts Kerry's 20-Point NJ Lead To 4

Newsday ^

[hawaiian]

NEWARK, N.J. -- Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry has lost his double-digit lead over President George W. Bush in New Jersey and is nearly tied with the GOP incumbent, according to a new poll.

Bush, coming off his party's national convention, slashed Kerry's lead among Garden State voters to 4 percentage points, according to a Star-Ledger/Eagleton-Rutgers Poll released Thursday. <a href="http://www.newsday.com/news/local/wire/ny-bc-nj--bush-kerry-poll0909sep08,0,3304612.story?coll=ny-ap-regional-wire>Full Story</a>. NJ is now officially a swing state! Kerry enjoyed a 20-point lead over Bush after the Democratic National Convention in July.</p> <p>

[1Old Pro]

No wonder Kerry is in a PANIC, lashing out at Bush every other hour.

[bankwalker]

Putting lipstick on a traitorous pig like Kerry won't hide the truth

Yup. Ya can't polish a turd.

[AFPhys]

sKerry can't operate an organization to run a competant campaign - even extremely loyal Demodogs are starting to make that clearly obvious statement.

There is no way that man is competant to run our country - whether military, economy, intelligence, human services, or even the road system... As I recall, he was a strong proponent of the "Big Dig" in Boston, too.
/

[AuH2ORepublican]

"I think even with this bounce Bush is still down in the electoral college. According to Zogby/Wallstreet Journal site."

---

I can't believe that so many people are still confused on this issue. This is like the 5th time I've had to post this in the last 2 days:

ZOGBY INTERACTIVE "POLLS" ARE *NOT* SCIENTIFIC POLLS. THEY ARE SELF-SELECTED INTERNET SURVEYS.

Most reputable electoral college predictors have Bush up rather comfortably since the Convention. See, for example, http://www.dalythoughts.com/ecb.htm and http://www.electionprojection.com/

[bray]

In related news, millions of Liberals were seen walking into the Ocean! The poor fish.

Pray for W and Our Troops

[Graymatter]

[chris1]

I am not convinced that GWB has a chance in NJ. The voter fraud and corruption of average voters is beyond anything most people realize. The water taints peoples' ability to reason and apply logic.

[SunkenCiv]

I'll bet the Kerry people are starting to wonder if southern politician John Edwards brought anything to the ticket. The Dean campaign used the following as an axiom (from The New York Times, although the link leads to a verbatim quote of it)

Forget the South
by Ryan Lizza
December 14, 2003
(originally www.nytimes.com/2003/12/14/magazine/14FORGET.html)

Al Gore's failing in 2000, they say, was not that he couldn't win in the South, but that he couldn't nail down New England. If Gore had been able to muster a few thousand more votes in New Hampshire, he would have won the presidency without a single Southern state. For some Democrats, this insight has led to a heretical theory about next year's presidential election: Forget the South. The Forget-the-South argument has little to do with anti-Dixie bias. Instead, it is based on simple mathematics. Consider the numbers. Democrats and Republicans agree that Bush and his eventual rival will each start the race with an ironclad base of states that are virtually unwinnable for the other party. Bush's base is rooted in the South, plains and interior West of the country, while the Democratic nominee can take for granted most of New England, the West Coast and a smattering of the Midwest.

Forget-the-South has *everything* to do with anti-Dixie bias. The foundation was laid in Newt's 1994 strategy that won the House for the Republican party. Immediately thereafter, the so-called Democrats began their war on tobacco producing states and everyone whose job depends on tobacco production and distribution. That's not a coincidence, that's what's known as quid pro quo. As long as Southern Democrats retained the correct brand name, the health problems associated with smoking (and identified at least as long ago as the 1930s) were ignored, subsidies and other favorable policies remained in force, and federal excise taxes on tobacco weren't considerable.

George W. Bush will be reelected by a margin of at least ten per cent

[traviskicks]

ahhh. thank you, I did not see your other posts. But, I guess the zobdy poll is still good for seeing trends though and the trends are heading Bush. My point was that IF Bush looses in Fl and PA then things will not be looking good. We'll see what happens. I am optimistic. We have to trust in the American People! Good links btw.

[Hillarys Gate Cult]

Rush just announced that now McGreevy may not leave, even after the election. I can't find a reference yet.

[Mad_Tom_Rackham]

But New Jersey has a precident. Kerry could fall 15 pts behind in the polls, then drop out. After GW wins NJ, Kerry could sue in the SCONJ to be re-instated. Then they would count every Democrat vote as a vote for Kerry (which it must have been, but they didn't have a candidate) and viola! Kerry wins NJ.

[sillsfan]

WOW!

Does this mean there's any hope for my pathetic state, ILLINOIS?

[Graymatter]

I lived there more than half my life. Can remember when Jersey would naturally go for a Republican president and nobody thought it strange. Local races were another story. You had to be loyal to your lodge brothers and customers and assorted backpatters.

Given 9/11's impact on Jersey folks, I wouldn't count it lost for GWB. Places like Camden will go Dem, legitimately. Cities across the way from NY would have gone Dem before, but I suspect 9/11 will have changed a lot of minds. Every time they look toward Manhattan and don't see those towers, they are now thinking of their safety, not their wallets.

In any case, Kerry must now fight in Jersey, and that's good for us. Plus, when Jersey is thisclose, Bush wins nationally. IMO

Speaking of having to campaign where one shouldn't have to campaign, Edwards is in Maine. :)

[chris1]

I am a bit more skeptical about Jersey voters.

After seeing Shundler and Forrester lose to criminals and the walking dead, I lost almost all faith.

However, I am praying for a massive avalanche on Election day like in 2002.

[Wallace T.]

The Democrats are employing what I would term the "Big State" strategy. They recognize that the former Confederacy and the "border" states of MO, OK, and KY are lost for the present. The Democrats' supporters are concentrated in the large cities and (in the Northeast, the Great Lakes region, and the West Coast) their suburbs. Four of the 11 most electoral vote rich states (CA, NY, IL, and NJ) are virtual "locks" electorally for the Democrats, representing 122 electoral votes, 45% of what is needed to exceed a 270 vote majority in the Electoral College. The Republicans only have "locks" in three states out of the top 11 (TX, GA, NC), representing 54 electoral votes. If we add the next ten states in electoral votes, four (MA, WA, MN, MD) are usually Democratic wins in Presidential elections, for another 43 votes, while only three (IN, TN, VA) are GOP-safe, for 35 electoral votes. The remaining four of the top 11 states (FL, PA, OH, MI) and the remaining three out of the next tier of 10 states (MO, AZ, WI) are considered competitive. If the Democrats carry FL, PA, MI, and WI, they would have an additional 75 electoral votes. Added to the Democratic "locks" of 165 electoral votes, they will have 240 electoral votes, about 89% of the goal. They thus need fewer of the remaining 29 to win: VT, ME, DE, DC, HI, RI, and CT are Democratic "locks" totaling 28 electoral votes. From there, all the Democrats have to win is one state like NM, NH, CO, OR, or NV to achieve the "magic" 270 electoral votes.

Due to Kerry's failing campaign, it is likely Bush will win, and may even achieve 350 electoral votes. However, the Democratic strategy for winning Presidential elections is a sound one. For all their bellyaching about the Electoral College, the Democrats clearly benefit from this ancient method of electing presidents.

[Wolfstar]

...meeting with Putin...

Has it been announced that GWB is meeting with Putin? Haven't heard about any announcement, although I sure hope he does after that school massacre. In fact, I wish GWB would go to Beslan.

[Wolfstar]

News this morning was that McGreevey is reconsidering his resignation. He never formally submitted one in the legal sense. I have to think even the idiotic Dems who infest the state of my birth must have a tipping point at which they say, "enough!"

[Wolfstar]

I think Kerry's doing an pretty good job of sabotaging himself.

[Coffee_drinker]

Let's not count any State out or in for that matter, we don't know the lows the Dems will go to get elected.
So if you can volunteer, put a sign out, talk to people, call into local talk radio, anything, we need to push like we are tied at the bottom the 9th 2 outs....

The Dems will stoop to anything, remember in 2000, at the last couple days before the election they pulled out the DWI thing with Bush? He actually lost votes for that

CD

[SunkenCiv]

I'd agree that they have some apparent advantages, but Reagan carried NY state in 1980 and 1984, showing that all the pubbies need to wipe away that "lock" is a charismatic, sincere candidate. NYC is a different story, having voted mostly for the Democratic candidate in every prez race since 1928.

As in Illinois, voter turnout is important, mostly in the hinterlands to balance the 500 pound gorilla. :')

George W. Bush will be reelected by a margin of at least ten per cent