Forget-the-South has *everything* to do with anti-Dixie bias. The foundation was laid in Newt's 1994 strategy that won the House for the Republican party. Immediately thereafter, the so-called Democrats began their war on tobacco producing states and everyone whose job depends on tobacco production and distribution. That's not a coincidence, that's what's known as quid pro quo. As long as Southern Democrats retained the correct brand name, the health problems associated with smoking (and identified at least as long ago as the 1930s) were ignored, subsidies and other favorable policies remained in force, and federal excise taxes on tobacco weren't considerable.Forget the SouthAl Gore's failing in 2000, they say, was not that he couldn't win in the South, but that he couldn't nail down New England. If Gore had been able to muster a few thousand more votes in New Hampshire, he would have won the presidency without a single Southern state. For some Democrats, this insight has led to a heretical theory about next year's presidential election: Forget the South. The Forget-the-South argument has little to do with anti-Dixie bias. Instead, it is based on simple mathematics. Consider the numbers. Democrats and Republicans agree that Bush and his eventual rival will each start the race with an ironclad base of states that are virtually unwinnable for the other party. Bush's base is rooted in the South, plains and interior West of the country, while the Democratic nominee can take for granted most of New England, the West Coast and a smattering of the Midwest.
by Ryan Lizza
December 14, 2003
(originally www.nytimes.com/2003/12/14/magazine/14FORGET.html)
George W. Bush will be reelected by a margin of at least ten per cent
Due to Kerry's failing campaign, it is likely Bush will win, and may even achieve 350 electoral votes. However, the Democratic strategy for winning Presidential elections is a sound one. For all their bellyaching about the Electoral College, the Democrats clearly benefit from this ancient method of electing presidents.